Pre-tourney Rankings
Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#133
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#151
Pace69.3#144
Improvement+7.3#5

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#57
First Shot+2.7#103
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#36
Layup/Dunks+0.3#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#15
Freethrows-1.6#288
Improvement+5.9#4

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#258
First Shot-2.5#262
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#227
Layups/Dunks-1.6#252
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#10
Freethrows-3.3#345
Improvement+1.4#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.0% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 21 - 7
Quad 37 - 68 - 13
Quad 410 - 318 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 19   @ Wisconsin L 76-105 10%     0 - 1 -12.4 -1.5 -6.9
  Nov 11, 2023 234   @ Bowling Green L 75-81 63%     0 - 2 -7.1 +2.8 -10.0
  Nov 14, 2023 303   Alcorn St. W 100-86 88%     1 - 2 +3.5 +18.1 -14.7
  Nov 17, 2023 49   @ Iowa L 74-88 16%     1 - 3 -1.0 -3.4 +3.7
  Nov 24, 2023 257   San Diego L 57-71 76%     1 - 4 -19.0 -20.2 +1.9
  Nov 25, 2023 330   UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-58 89%     2 - 4 +5.7 +1.8 +4.7
  Nov 28, 2023 317   Jackson St. L 71-75 90%     2 - 5 -15.7 -6.3 -9.5
  Dec 01, 2023 193   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 66-77 55%     2 - 6 -10.1 -10.2 +0.5
  Dec 04, 2023 13   @ Alabama L 65-89 7%     2 - 7 -5.3 -9.2 +5.8
  Dec 09, 2023 99   UAB W 87-68 49%     3 - 7 +21.6 +17.4 +5.3
  Dec 13, 2023 179   @ Louisville W 75-63 52%     4 - 7 +13.7 +3.5 +10.3
  Dec 20, 2023 114   @ Belmont L 70-74 36%     4 - 8 +2.1 -0.8 +2.9
  Dec 30, 2023 216   @ Georgia St. L 90-91 60%     4 - 9 0 - 1 -1.3 +16.3 -17.6
  Jan 04, 2024 259   Georgia Southern W 109-83 83%     5 - 9 1 - 1 +18.3 +30.8 -12.3
  Jan 06, 2024 289   Old Dominion W 90-75 86%     6 - 9 2 - 1 +5.7 +12.1 -6.8
  Jan 11, 2024 187   Texas St. W 85-82 72%     7 - 9 3 - 1 -0.7 +16.9 -17.5
  Jan 13, 2024 153   Louisiana L 77-84 66%     7 - 10 3 - 2 -8.9 +5.8 -14.9
  Jan 17, 2024 230   @ Southern Miss L 66-69 62%     7 - 11 3 - 3 -3.9 -7.1 +3.3
  Jan 20, 2024 187   @ Texas St. W 79-72 53%     8 - 11 4 - 3 +8.5 +11.7 -3.0
  Jan 26, 2024 153   @ Louisiana L 75-81 46%     8 - 12 4 - 4 -2.7 +2.4 -5.0
  Jan 28, 2024 291   @ Louisiana Monroe L 82-85 OT 74%     8 - 13 4 - 5 -7.4 -2.9 -4.2
  Jan 31, 2024 230   Southern Miss W 78-71 79%     9 - 13 5 - 5 +0.9 +8.9 -7.5
  Feb 03, 2024 291   Louisiana Monroe W 95-80 87%     10 - 13 6 - 5 +5.4 +15.0 -10.1
  Feb 07, 2024 64   James Madison L 73-77 35%     10 - 14 6 - 6 +2.2 +1.3 +1.0
  Feb 10, 2024 143   Ohio W 100-87 63%     11 - 14 +11.8 +31.0 -18.4
  Feb 15, 2024 131   @ Troy W 82-71 39%     12 - 14 7 - 6 +16.1 +15.8 +0.7
  Feb 17, 2024 220   @ South Alabama W 76-73 60%     13 - 14 8 - 6 +2.6 +8.0 -5.2
  Feb 22, 2024 131   Troy W 79-71 59%     14 - 14 9 - 6 +7.9 +4.5 +3.2
  Feb 24, 2024 220   South Alabama W 95-78 77%     15 - 14 10 - 6 +11.4 +16.0 -5.2
  Feb 28, 2024 307   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-60 78%     16 - 14 11 - 6 +5.3 -5.7 +10.8
  Mar 01, 2024 86   @ Appalachian St. L 57-80 25%     16 - 15 11 - 7 -13.7 -8.9 -5.0
  Mar 09, 2024 153   Louisiana W 89-62 56%     17 - 15 +27.7 +16.0 +11.2
  Mar 10, 2024 86   Appalachian St. W 67-65 34%     18 - 15 +8.7 +13.5 -4.4
  Mar 11, 2024 64   James Madison L 71-91 27%     18 - 16 -11.2 +6.6 -19.2
Projected Record 18 - 16 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 100.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%