Pre-tourney Rankings
UC San Diego
Big West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#120
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#133
Pace64.3#299
Improvement+0.3#162

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#73
First Shot+3.7#77
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#124
Layup/Dunks+0.5#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#35
Freethrows+1.1#95
Improvement+1.7#93

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#215
First Shot-2.0#246
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#124
Layups/Dunks+0.7#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#319
Freethrows+2.2#42
Improvement-1.4#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 85.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 36 - 36 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 276   Denver W 95-87 86%     1 - 0 -0.4 +10.9 -11.7
  Nov 11, 2023 257   San Diego W 80-69 85%    
  Nov 18, 2023 319   Navy W 73-55 91%     2 - 0 +6.1 +1.2 +6.3
  Nov 24, 2023 320   Idaho L 70-73 OT 87%     2 - 1 -12.3 -11.7 -0.3
  Nov 26, 2023 119   @ Seattle L 67-79 40%     2 - 2 -6.3 +7.5 -15.3
  Nov 28, 2023 65   @ Washington L 56-83 22%     2 - 3 -15.6 -14.2 -0.8
  Dec 01, 2023 28   San Diego St. L 62-63 24%     2 - 4 +9.3 +5.9 +3.2
  Dec 09, 2023 196   @ Pepperdine L 62-68 60%     2 - 5 -5.4 -3.5 -2.7
  Dec 18, 2023 302   @ Sacramento St. W 83-52 79%     3 - 5 +25.7 +12.4 +14.7
  Dec 20, 2023 113   @ California L 67-71 38%     3 - 6 +2.2 +0.1 +2.0
  Dec 28, 2023 227   Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-64 80%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +6.1 +5.8 +0.9
  Jan 04, 2024 198   @ UC Santa Barbara W 79-72 60%     5 - 6 2 - 0 +7.5 +13.7 -5.4
  Jan 06, 2024 225   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 76-58 64%     6 - 6 3 - 0 +17.3 +14.4 +5.1
  Jan 11, 2024 160   Long Beach St. W 88-74 70%     7 - 6 4 - 0 +11.7 +10.6 +0.7
  Jan 13, 2024 329   @ Cal Poly W 86-61 86%     8 - 6 5 - 0 +16.3 +14.9 +2.5
  Jan 18, 2024 77   @ UC Irvine L 65-76 26%     8 - 7 5 - 1 -1.3 +0.8 -2.6
  Jan 20, 2024 159   Hawaii W 67-61 70%     9 - 7 6 - 1 +3.7 -2.2 +6.2
  Jan 25, 2024 202   UC Riverside W 66-65 77%     10 - 7 7 - 1 -3.8 -0.8 -2.9
  Jan 27, 2024 165   @ UC Davis W 92-59 52%     11 - 7 8 - 1 +35.5 +25.2 +11.2
  Feb 01, 2024 229   Cal St. Northridge W 83-62 80%     12 - 7 9 - 1 +15.0 +9.9 +5.2
  Feb 03, 2024 160   @ Long Beach St. L 76-85 51%     12 - 8 9 - 2 -6.1 +12.0 -19.1
  Feb 08, 2024 159   @ Hawaii L 86-94 OT 51%     12 - 9 9 - 3 -5.1 +12.4 -17.2
  Feb 15, 2024 198   UC Santa Barbara W 61-46 77%     13 - 9 10 - 3 +10.3 -9.6 +21.4
  Feb 17, 2024 225   Cal St. Fullerton W 76-69 80%     14 - 9 11 - 3 +1.1 +11.0 -9.1
  Feb 22, 2024 202   @ UC Riverside W 77-65 60%     15 - 9 12 - 3 +12.4 +3.7 +8.6
  Feb 24, 2024 77   UC Irvine W 92-88 OT 45%     16 - 9 13 - 3 +8.5 +13.0 -4.9
  Feb 29, 2024 227   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 57-70 64%     16 - 10 13 - 4 -13.7 -12.6 -1.7
  Mar 02, 2024 229   @ Cal St. Northridge W 79-69 65%     17 - 10 14 - 4 +9.2 +6.1 +2.8
  Mar 07, 2024 165   UC Davis L 63-70 71%     17 - 11 14 - 5 -9.7 +0.0 -10.7
  Mar 09, 2024 329   Cal Poly W 92-87 93%     18 - 11 15 - 5 -8.9 +18.9 -27.6
Projected Record 19 - 11 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 100.0
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 85.3%
Lose Out 14.7%