Wyoming
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
134  Aaron Derner SR 31:59
185  Amos Bowen SR 32:12
438  Jonah Henry SO 32:51
554  Dylan Morin SR 33:05
602  Ricky Faure FR 33:09
774  alex Pawlak JR 33:27
1,400  Jesse Gray SO 34:21
1,431  Michael Downey FR 34:24
National Rank #60 of 308
Mountain Region Rank #9 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 0.4%
Most Likely Finish 9th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 0.2%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Aaron Derner Amos Bowen Jonah Henry Dylan Morin Ricky Faure alex Pawlak Jesse Gray Michael Downey
Roy Griak Invitational 09/26 994 32:10 32:50 34:27 33:26 33:30 33:04 36:00
Rocky Mountain Shootout 10/03 34:21 34:24
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 1003 32:32 32:55 32:54 32:58 33:17 33:25 34:21
Mountain West Championships 10/30 798 31:30 32:33 32:35 32:35 33:09 33:42 33:58
Mountain Region Championships 11/13 676 31:43 31:33 32:13 33:25 32:33 33:44 34:05





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 0.4% 28.9 680 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
Region Championship 100% 8.4 210 0.0 0.2 1.5 14.2 29.4 49.5 5.0 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Derner 35.9% 103.2 0.0 0.0
Amos Bowen 14.6% 129.3
Jonah Henry 0.4% 187.8
Dylan Morin 0.4% 205.5
Ricky Faure 0.4% 225.5
alex Pawlak 0.4% 225.3
Jesse Gray 0.4% 247.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Derner 21.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.6 1.9 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.6 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.4 4.9 4.1
Amos Bowen 27.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.6 2.7 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.9 4.3 5.0
Jonah Henry 46.6 0.0 0.0
Dylan Morin 53.3
Ricky Faure 55.0
alex Pawlak 63.7
Jesse Gray 91.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 0.0% 50.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 4
5 0.2% 33.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5
6 1.5% 19.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.3 6
7 14.2% 14.2 7
8 29.4% 29.4 8
9 49.5% 49.5 9
10 5.0% 5.0 10
11 0.0% 0.0 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.6 0.0 0.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Georgia 6.3% 1.0 0.1
Georgia Tech 2.3% 1.0 0.0
North Texas 0.5% 1.0 0.0
New Mexico 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.1
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 2.0