Navy
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
152  Lucas Stalnaker SR 32:02
289  Ryan McCoy SR 32:28
344  Cory Donley JR 32:37
350  Jake Brophy FR 32:38
370  Ryan Speir SR 32:40
421  Mitchell Pratt SR 32:46
486  Harry Bullen SR 32:54
510  Samuel Williams SR 32:56
522  Kevin Murray FR 32:57
706  Gabriel Collison JR 33:18
1,266  Samuel Pershall SR 34:05
1,626  Michael Karls SO 34:35
2,178  Jacob Shewbert FR 35:31
National Rank #49 of 312
Mid-Atlantic Region Rank #5 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 41.0%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 1.0%


Regional Champion 10.8%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Lucas Stalnaker Ryan McCoy Cory Donley Jake Brophy Ryan Speir Mitchell Pratt Harry Bullen Samuel Williams Kevin Murray Gabriel Collison Samuel Pershall
Navy Invitational 09/10 901 32:30 32:38 32:45 32:53 32:37 32:41 32:51 33:20 33:27
UMES Cappy Anderson Invitational 09/17 786 32:20 32:20 32:19 32:20
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 757 31:53 32:25 32:32 32:32 32:32 32:18 32:57 33:52 33:03 34:02
Mason Invitational 10/01 1359
Paul Short Invitational (Gold) 10/01 837 32:16 32:26 32:30 32:40 32:41 32:40 33:07 32:59 32:57 33:11
Army vs. Navy 10/15 649 31:42 32:05 32:20 32:12 33:04 33:11 33:08 32:22 33:01 32:53 33:31
Patriot League Championship 10/29 777 31:47 32:21 32:55 32:46 32:30 33:08 32:34 32:49 33:34 34:07
Mid-Atlantic Region Championships 11/11 854 32:21 32:28 32:32 32:38 32:41 32:53 32:37





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 41.0% 28.3 702 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.1 3.5 4.2 8.2 9.3 8.0
Region Championship 100% 2.8 91 10.8 27.2 32.7 28.3 1.0 0.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lucas Stalnaker 72.6% 118.2 0.1 0.1
Ryan McCoy 44.1% 173.2
Cory Donley 41.6% 193.2
Jake Brophy 41.4% 193.4
Ryan Speir 41.3% 199.5
Mitchell Pratt 41.2% 208.5
Harry Bullen 41.0% 219.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lucas Stalnaker 6.1 1.2 8.6 12.2 9.5 10.5 7.6 7.6 6.3 4.9 4.0 3.2 3.4 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.5
Ryan McCoy 16.7 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.7 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.9 4.5 5.0 3.6 4.5 4.2 4.3 3.6 3.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.4 1.9
Cory Donley 21.8 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.6 3.4 3.3 4.1 3.6 3.8 3.3 4.1 4.7 3.7 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.0
Jake Brophy 22.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.4 1.4 2.4 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.1 3.3 4.3 4.3 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.6 2.9
Ryan Speir 23.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.6 1.4 2.4 2.2 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.9 4.4 3.7 3.5 4.1 3.6 3.6 3.1 3.7 3.3
Mitchell Pratt 27.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.3 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.7 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.0 3.9
Harry Bullen 32.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.2 1.9 3.2 2.6 2.5 3.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 10.8% 100.0% 10.8 10.8 1
2 27.2% 100.0% 27.2 27.2 2
3 32.7% 9.2% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 29.7 3.0 3
4 28.3% 28.3 4
5 1.0% 1.0 5
6 0.1% 0.1 6
7 0.1% 0.1 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 41.0% 10.8 27.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 59.0 38.0 3.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Georgia 4.7% 1.0 0.0
Furman 4.4% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.7% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.1
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 2.0