Arizona
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
35  Claire Green JR 19:42
55  Addi Zerrenner SO 19:49
404  Jenny Baragar-Petrash FR 20:46
510  Annie Richards FR 20:57
787  Jennie Baragar-Petrash FR 21:17
910  Kayla Ferron JR 21:26
1,057  Kirsten Vergara SO 21:35
1,865  McKenna Gaffney SR 22:25
2,313  Hannah Whetzel SO 22:55
2,872  Margie Moyer SO 23:54
National Rank #39 of 344
West Region Rank #9 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 2.6%
Most Likely Finish 10th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.6%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 0.3%
Top 10 in Regional 83.7%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Claire Green Addi Zerrenner Jenny Baragar-Petrash Annie Richards Jennie Baragar-Petrash Kayla Ferron Kirsten Vergara McKenna Gaffney Hannah Whetzel Margie Moyer
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 704 19:28 19:49 20:37 21:14 21:09 21:35 22:31 23:13
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Open) 10/15 23:09
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 742 19:41 19:57 20:39 20:56 22:26 22:01 23:15
ASU Invitational 10/21 1234 21:26 21:04 21:53 22:19 23:15
Pac-12 Conference 10/28 717 19:48 19:29 21:10 20:42 21:54 21:22 22:53 23:54
West Region Championships 11/11 743 19:35 19:43 21:01 21:18 21:06 21:38 22:43





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 2.6% 23.9 559 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 9.6 291 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.7 9.6 30.4 40.1 11.4 4.2 0.7 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Claire Green 81.4% 42.4 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.0 1.0
Addi Zerrenner 49.7% 49.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0
Jenny Baragar-Petrash 2.6% 187.5
Annie Richards 2.6% 210.8
Jennie Baragar-Petrash 2.6% 232.8
Kayla Ferron 2.6% 239.5
Kirsten Vergara 2.6% 244.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Claire Green 12.8 0.8 1.5 3.0 3.0 2.7 4.3 4.2 5.1 5.7 6.0 5.3 4.5 5.5 4.5 4.7 5.0 3.2 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.4 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.3
Addi Zerrenner 17.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.5 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.3 4.4 3.4 3.9 5.2 4.6 4.7 4.0 3.9 4.2 3.8 3.2 3.9 3.2 3.3 3.1 2.7
Jenny Baragar-Petrash 70.7 0.1
Annie Richards 82.3
Jennie Baragar-Petrash 104.9
Kayla Ferron 116.8
Kirsten Vergara 129.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 4
5 0.2% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 5
6 0.7% 69.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 6
7 2.7% 31.5% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.9 0.9 7
8 9.6% 9.9% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 8.7 1.0 8
9 30.4% 0.2% 0.1 30.4 0.1 9
10 40.1% 40.1 10
11 11.4% 11.4 11
12 4.2% 4.2 12
13 0.7% 0.7 13
14 0.1% 0.1 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 2.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.0 97.5 0.0 2.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Furman 25.1% 2.0 0.5
Louisville 9.3% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Duke 3.2% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 2.1% 2.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.0% 2.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Elon 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.8
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 5.0