Pittsburgh
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
89  Gillian Schriever SO 19:59
327  Melanie Vlasic JR 20:37
488  Kelly Hayes JR 20:55
804  Deanndra Adams SR 21:18
832  Ariel Pastore-Sebring JR 21:21
997  Amy Kelly JR 21:31
1,034  Beth Shenck JR 21:34
1,096  Miranda Salvo SO 21:38
1,184  Ellen Crook JR 21:43
1,219  Sarah Kochinsky SR 21:45
1,220  Abby Peters SR 21:45
1,311  Joslin Sellers JR 21:51
1,431  Makenzie Zeh SO 21:58
1,551  Caroline DeFrank JR 22:06
National Rank #76 of 344
Mid-Atlantic Region Rank #6 of 38
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 0.6%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 8.9%
Top 10 in Regional 99.7%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Gillian Schriever Melanie Vlasic Kelly Hayes Deanndra Adams Ariel Pastore-Sebring Amy Kelly Beth Shenck Miranda Salvo Ellen Crook Sarah Kochinsky Abby Peters
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 909 19:59 20:33 20:54 21:12 21:48 21:40 21:34 21:54 22:03 21:48 22:32
Carnegie Mellon Invitational 10/08 1253 21:52
Penn State National Open 10/14 929 20:07 20:40 20:50 21:25 21:19 21:17 21:30 21:21 21:43 21:44 21:40
ACC Championships 10/28 878 19:42 20:32 21:02 21:19 21:09 21:39 21:58 21:40 21:24 21:33
Mid-Atlantic Region Championships 11/11 900 19:51 20:35 20:55 21:26 21:21 21:22 21:41





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 0.6% 28.9 716 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Region Championship 100% 6.9 200 0.4 2.0 6.6 31.8 31.3 20.7 5.5 1.6 0.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Gillian Schriever 87.2% 85.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Melanie Vlasic 12.8% 175.3
Kelly Hayes 1.3% 208.0
Deanndra Adams 0.6% 238.0
Ariel Pastore-Sebring 0.6% 237.0
Amy Kelly 0.6% 243.0
Beth Shenck 0.6% 245.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Gillian Schriever 6.7 2.4 5.1 6.0 8.2 9.9 10.9 10.5 11.6 8.3 6.6 4.8 3.8 3.2 1.8 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2
Melanie Vlasic 24.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 2.4 2.5 3.1 3.0 3.6 3.4 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.1 3.6 3.9 3.5
Kelly Hayes 38.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.3 2.2 2.3
Deanndra Adams 64.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Ariel Pastore-Sebring 66.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Amy Kelly 78.8
Beth Shenck 82.9 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 0.4% 42.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 3
4 2.0% 10.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8 0.2 4
5 6.6% 3.8% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.3 0.3 5
6 31.8% 31.8 6
7 31.3% 31.3 7
8 20.7% 20.7 8
9 5.5% 5.5 9
10 1.6% 1.6 10
11 0.3% 0.3 11
12 12
13 13
14 0.1% 0.1 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
Total 100% 0.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.4 0.0 0.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Virginia 24.8% 1.0 0.2
Virginia Tech 7.6% 1.0 0.1
Duke 3.2% 1.0 0.0
Wake Forest 2.4% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Florida State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.4
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 2.0