Manhattan
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
436  Lisa Fajardo JR 20:46
1,268  Erin Spadaccini JR 21:45
1,280  Caroline Ferri JR 21:46
1,484  Kaitlyn Smith SR 21:59
1,697  Keeley Hogan JR 22:13
1,901  Kelly Gorman SR 22:26
2,157  Katelyn Huggard FR 22:44
2,296  Gianna Tinto JR 22:57
2,568  Samantha Hoagland JR 23:22
2,635  Grace Ostolozaga SR 23:30
2,933  Caitlin Hartnett SO 24:22
2,939  Samantha Manalastas SR 24:23
3,293  Jacquie Roda JR 27:08
National Rank #166 of 348
Northeast Region Rank #22 of 44
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 0.0%
Most Likely Finish 25th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 0.0%
Top 10 in Regional 0.0%
Top 20 in Regional 7.1%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Lisa Fajardo Erin Spadaccini Caroline Ferri Kaitlyn Smith Keeley Hogan Kelly Gorman Katelyn Huggard Gianna Tinto Samantha Hoagland Grace Ostolozaga Caitlin Hartnett
Fordham Fiasco Invitational 09/09 1173 20:46 21:46 21:25 22:11 22:08 23:01 23:40 24:54
Paul Short Gold 09/29 1157 20:39 21:28 22:00 21:36 22:11 22:37
NYC Metropolitan Championship 10/13 1135 20:31 21:31 21:40 21:35 22:09 22:19 22:45 22:53 23:23 23:48 24:32
MAAC Championship 10/28 1132 20:24 21:59 21:39 23:07 22:14 22:02 22:43 22:39 23:28 23:18
Northeast Region Championships 11/10 1242 21:15 21:28 22:23 22:07 23:14 22:59





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 0.0%
Region Championship 100% 24.7 697 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.0 8.5 10.4 14.5 15.3 13.5 11.1 7.8 4.0 2.0 0.8



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lisa Fajardo 0.1% 234.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lisa Fajardo 45.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.2
Erin Spadaccini 146.1
Caroline Ferri 149.1
Kaitlyn Smith 170.2
Keeley Hogan 190.4
Kelly Gorman 206.7
Katelyn Huggard 223.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 0.1% 0.1 13
14 0.1% 0.1 14
15 0.2% 0.2 15
16 0.5% 0.5 16
17 0.6% 0.6 17
18 0.7% 0.7 18
19 1.7% 1.7 19
20 3.4% 3.4 20
21 5.0% 5.0 21
22 8.5% 8.5 22
23 10.4% 10.4 23
24 14.5% 14.5 24
25 15.3% 15.3 25
26 13.5% 13.5 26
27 11.1% 11.1 27
28 7.8% 7.8 28
29 4.0% 4.0 29
30 2.0% 2.0 30
31 0.8% 0.8 31
32 0.4% 0.4 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
Total 100% 0.0% 100.0 0.0 0.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Total 0.0
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 0.0