Concordia Lutheran
Boys - Girls
2022 - 2023 - 2024
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State Rank #11
New Haven Regional Rank #1
Woodlan Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 10th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.3%
Top 5 at State Finals 12.7%
Top 10 at State Finals 50.4%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational Flashrock Invite Culver Academies Invitational
Date 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23
Team Rating 262 299 342 283 347 347
Team Adjusted Rating 299 250 213 243 347
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational Flashrock Invite Culver Academies Invitational
28  Vaughn Hendrickson 12 16:05 16:40 16:14 16:05 15:50 15:54 16:06
57  Will Schlegel 11 16:20 16:21 16:16 18:22
86  Hunter Panning 10 16:32 16:55 16:47 16:24 16:08 16:43 16:21
101  Nick Spielman 12 16:37 16:44 16:41 16:29 16:28 16:29 16:44
294  Cillian Hoover 11 17:13 17:48 17:21 17:14 17:07 17:02 17:01
470  Ben Bentz 12 17:39 17:03 17:42 17:38 17:22 17:48 18:02
639  Max Adair 12 17:56 17:54 17:56 18:12 18:00 17:55 17:46
974  Jack Habegger 11 18:29 18:54 18:34 20:43 18:31 18:18 18:14
1,122  Morgan Miller 12 18:43 18:49 18:29 18:33 18:54 18:52 18:35
1,310  Karsten Sheets 9 18:58 18:43 19:08 18:58 19:02




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 10.7 309 0.3 1.2 2.1 4.3 4.8 6.8 6.3 7.8 8.2 8.7 8.5 8.6 5.3 6.6 5.9 4.2 2.8 2.5 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.2
Regionals 100% 1.3 73 66.5 32.6 0.9 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 22 98.7 1.4



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Vaughn Hendrickson 100% 31.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.8 3.2 2.7 100.0%
Will Schlegel 100% 58.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 100.0%
Hunter Panning 100% 89.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.7%
Nick Spielman 100% 104.8 0.1 98.0%
Cillian Hoover 100% 200.5 16.9%
Ben Bentz 100% 230.7 0.0%
Max Adair 100% 240.7 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Vaughn Hendrickson 100% 1.7 35.1 21.1 15.2 9.5 6.8 4.5 3.4 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Will Schlegel 100% 6.3 0.8 5.7 8.0 10.5 10.7 10.7 11.3 10.0 8.5 5.9 4.2 4.0 2.8 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Hunter Panning 100% 11.5 0.5 0.7 1.8 2.4 4.7 6.0 6.0 7.8 7.3 8.7 8.0 7.5 7.5 5.8 4.9 4.8 4.3 2.5 2.7 2.0 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 100.0%
Nick Spielman 100% 13.8 0.2 0.1 0.9 1.1 2.3 2.4 4.1 5.8 6.5 6.8 6.5 7.5 7.4 6.4 7.5 6.5 4.7 5.2 3.8 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.1 1.5 100.0%
Cillian Hoover 100% 37.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.8 1.7 100.0%
Ben Bentz 100% 67.5 100.0%
Max Adair 100% 91.3 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Vaughn Hendrickson 1.0 88.4 9.5 1.8 0.4
Will Schlegel 1.8 4.3 57.2 23.9 10.1 3.4 1.2 0.2
Hunter Panning 3.7 0.1 5.4 26.5 25.6 23.3 14.1 5.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Nick Spielman 4.6 0.1 1.3 10.3 22.9 25.6 26.1 13.4 0.4 0.1 0.1
Cillian Hoover 7.8 0.3 0.9 8.3 53.2 13.1 6.6 6.0 5.2 4.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1
Ben Bentz 13.9 0.1 0.3 7.9 6.7 5.7 7.9 8.8 14.4 13.5 9.2 8.3 6.8 4.6 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1
Max Adair 19.3 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.3 2.3 5.3 5.7 8.6 9.3 12.0 10.3 11.3 8.5 6.7 5.6 3.3