Floyd Central
Boys - Girls
2022 - 2023 - 2024
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State Rank #5
Mater Dei Regional Rank #1
Crawford County Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 6th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at State Finals 25.3%
Top 10 at State Finals 77.4%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Valley Kickoff St. Xavier Tiger Run Rick Weinheimer Classic Eagle Classic Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational Ted Fox Invite
Date 8/13 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23
Team Rating 218 197 293 194 230 207 398
Team Adjusted Rating 197 192 194 230 207 398
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Valley Kickoff St. Xavier Tiger Run Rick Weinheimer Classic Eagle Classic Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational Ted Fox Invite
Will Conway 12 15:16 15:18 15:09 15:27 15:23 15:09 16:29
20  Luca Cirincione 11 15:56 16:11 16:04 15:57 15:47 15:54 15:45 16:38
36  Noah Nifong 11 16:09 15:50 16:10 16:00 16:16 16:09 16:17 16:38
211  Reid Coleman 12 16:58 17:24 16:44 16:51 16:49 16:58 16:51 17:31
290  Ethan Edwards 12 17:12 17:15 17:02 17:03 16:57 17:21 17:08 17:42
443  Braden McGuire 12 17:36 17:56 17:33 17:19 17:58 17:45 17:13 17:29
754  Hikari Shiga 11 18:08 18:36 18:02 18:12 17:46
1,176  Miles Elrod 10 18:47 18:29 18:58 18:48 18:46 18:50
Jordan Hartlage 11 19:05 18:53 19:16




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 8.0 271 0.1 2.1 4.8 8.8 9.6 11.1 11.1 10.9 9.8 9.2 6.5 5.8 4.2 2.6 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.3
Regionals 100% 2.3 97 24.3 33.4 27.4 14.1 0.9
Sectionals 100% 1.0 27 100.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Will Conway 100% 1.9 29.9 23.5 18.8 13.1 6.4 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Luca Cirincione 100% 20.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.4 3.4 2.5 3.3 3.8 3.4 4.1 4.2 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.6 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.9 100.0%
Noah Nifong 100% 38.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.8 2.1 100.0%
Reid Coleman 100% 172.0 33.9%
Ethan Edwards 100% 199.3 5.8%
Braden McGuire 100% 227.9 0.1%
Hikari Shiga 100% 244.2 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Will Conway 100% 1.0 91.8 6.1 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Luca Cirincione 100% 5.8 5.8 8.8 9.9 13.7 15.3 15.7 14.3 10.0 4.1 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Noah Nifong 100% 9.1 0.6 0.8 1.9 2.6 4.8 8.5 12.7 16.9 18.0 12.6 7.9 5.1 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Reid Coleman 100% 38.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.6 100.0%
Ethan Edwards 100% 50.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 100.0%
Braden McGuire 100% 71.7 100.0%
Hikari Shiga 100% 117.8 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Will Conway 1.0 99.0 1.0
Luca Cirincione 2.2 39.8 53.8 6.4 0.1
Noah Nifong 3.4 2.3 18.1 75.4 3.9 0.4 0.1
Reid Coleman 8.0 5.1 14.9 14.9 15.3 16.7 15.1 14.3 3.2 0.5 0.1
Ethan Edwards 10.9 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.8 8.1 14.6 20.2 34.5 8.5 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Braden McGuire 14.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.5 21.9 19.2 15.7 13.3 10.3 6.4 4.2 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.1
Hikari Shiga 20.8 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.0 9.7 19.0 17.0 17.2 13.2 9.0 4.3