All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Valley Kickoff |
Larry James Invitational |
Rudy Skorupa Invitational |
Harrison Invitational |
Bob Thomas Invitational |
New Prairie Invitational |
Highland Invitational |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/13 |
8/19 |
8/26 |
9/2 |
9/9 |
9/16 |
9/23 |
| Team Rating |
279 | |
185 |
231 |
289 |
302 |
322 |
416 |
451 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
185 |
231 |
257 |
249 |
322 |
339 |
351 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Valley Kickoff |
Larry James Invitational |
Rudy Skorupa Invitational |
Harrison Invitational |
Bob Thomas Invitational |
New Prairie Invitational |
Highland Invitational |
|---|
| 22 |
Ben Perschon |
10 |
15:57 |
16:19 |
15:54 |
15:57 |
15:44 |
15:51 |
16:00 |
|
16:16 |
| 123 |
Evan Smith |
11 |
16:43 |
16:27 |
16:30 |
16:37 |
16:39 |
16:39 |
16:51 |
17:11 |
16:58 |
| 138 |
Austin Wojcik |
12 |
16:47 |
16:22 |
16:21 |
16:11 |
|
|
18:00 |
18:11 |
18:29 |
| 140 |
Riley Petrovich |
12 |
16:48 |
17:04 |
16:14 |
16:40 |
16:46 |
16:25 |
17:08 |
17:09 |
|
| 151 |
Roger Ochoa |
12 |
16:51 |
17:30 |
16:32 |
16:50 |
16:41 |
|
16:51 |
16:57 |
|
| 300 |
Kristopher Garner |
11 |
17:14 |
|
17:40 |
17:38 |
17:23 |
16:54 |
16:56 |
16:58 |
17:27 |
| 325 |
Sebastian Groszek |
12 |
17:20 |
|
17:58 |
17:21 |
17:14 |
17:27 |
17:09 |
17:00 |
|
| 464 |
Drew McGrath |
12 |
17:38 |
17:05 |
17:36 |
17:32 |
|
17:45 |
|
17:48 |
17:55 |
| 558 |
Matt Tuley |
11 |
17:47 |
|
17:45 |
17:41 |
17:34 |
17:54 |
|
17:57 |
17:43 |
| 585 |
Patrick Ryan |
11 |
17:51 |
18:06 |
17:23 |
17:33 |
17:44 |
17:40 |
18:15 |
18:30 |
17:21 |
| 588 |
Dominic Negrete |
11 |
17:51 |
18:07 |
17:36 |
17:45 |
17:41 |
18:05 |
17:51 |
17:53 |
17:31 |
| 785 |
Tyler Gagliardi |
12 |
18:11 |
17:37 |
17:08 |
|
18:26 |
18:37 |
18:41 |
17:57 |
18:15 |
| 835 |
Julio Herrera |
12 |
18:15 |
18:19 |
|
18:09 |
17:50 |
18:25 |
18:15 |
18:18 |
18:58 |
| 862 |
Ethan Gonzales |
10 |
18:19 |
|
|
18:21 |
18:11 |
18:21 |
18:17 |
18:25 |
18:08 |
| 937 |
Aiden Illic |
12 |
18:25 |
18:11 |
|
18:10 |
18:21 |
18:18 |
18:42 |
18:41 |
19:12 |
| 947 |
Jake O'Sullivan |
11 |
18:26 |
18:38 |
|
18:18 |
18:43 |
18:34 |
18:05 |
18:27 |
17:58 |
| 986 |
Owen Golder |
11 |
18:31 |
18:26 |
|
18:26 |
18:25 |
18:27 |
18:30 |
19:10 |
18:24 |
| 1,037 |
Owen Thompson |
11 |
18:35 |
18:33 |
|
18:49 |
18:24 |
18:40 |
18:38 |
18:30 |
19:03 |
| 1,086 |
Humza Mohuiddin |
12 |
18:40 |
18:43 |
|
18:51 |
18:14 |
18:42 |
18:46 |
18:35 |
18:31 |
| 1,220 |
Mike Schutz |
11 |
18:50 |
18:34 |
|
18:25 |
18:32 |
19:01 |
19:11 |
19:14 |
19:05 |
| 1,296 |
Antoni Jablonski |
12 |
18:57 |
18:28 |
|
18:50 |
18:40 |
19:18 |
18:57 |
19:19 |
19:14 |
|
Brian Crague |
9 |
19:01 |
|
|
19:20 |
18:52 |
18:55 |
19:11 |
18:40 |
19:38 |
|
Eli Tyrpin |
10 |
19:20 |
|
|
20:49 |
19:33 |
19:28 |
|
19:02 |
19:08 |
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
98.6% |
13.0 |
343 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
2.2 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
6.0 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
7.1 |
6.9 |
6.4 |
5.9 |
4.8 |
3.9 |
2.7 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
| Regionals |
100% |
2.2 |
117 |
41.9 |
23.3 |
16.4 |
12.0 |
5.0 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.0 |
33 |
99.6 |
0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ben Perschon |
100% |
21.8 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
3.5 |
2.8 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
2.4 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Evan Smith |
98.6% |
123.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
52.4% |
| Austin Wojcik |
98.6% |
136.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
40.7% |
| Riley Petrovich |
98.6% |
139.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
38.0% |
| Roger Ochoa |
98.6% |
150.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
27.8% |
| Kristopher Garner |
98.6% |
202.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.6% |
| Sebastian Groszek |
98.6% |
210.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ben Perschon |
100% |
4.8 |
1.9 |
8.8 |
11.6 |
15.5 |
16.1 |
14.4 |
13.3 |
9.2 |
4.5 |
2.8 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Evan Smith |
100% |
24.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
4.9 |
4.3 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Austin Wojcik |
100% |
28.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
3.8 |
3.0 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Riley Petrovich |
100% |
30.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
2.9 |
|
100.0% |
| Roger Ochoa |
100% |
33.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Kristopher Garner |
100% |
60.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
|
100.0% |
| Sebastian Groszek |
100% |
65.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ben Perschon |
1.0 |
63.0 |
35.4 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Evan Smith |
5.8 |
|
0.3 |
7.5 |
12.5 |
17.3 |
15.9 |
14.0 |
11.2 |
8.6 |
4.8 |
3.7 |
2.4 |
1.6 |
0.5 |
|
0.1 |
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Austin Wojcik |
7.0 |
|
0.3 |
2.5 |
7.8 |
10.0 |
13.5 |
15.8 |
15.2 |
12.1 |
8.1 |
6.8 |
4.4 |
2.1 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Riley Petrovich |
7.4 |
|
0.1 |
2.9 |
5.0 |
9.9 |
12.3 |
13.2 |
15.8 |
12.1 |
10.7 |
7.2 |
5.8 |
3.1 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Roger Ochoa |
8.6 |
|
|
1.0 |
3.0 |
5.1 |
9.3 |
10.6 |
13.0 |
12.9 |
14.5 |
10.6 |
8.9 |
6.1 |
3.9 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Kristopher Garner |
14.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
1.7 |
3.7 |
6.9 |
10.2 |
16.0 |
20.0 |
15.7 |
10.7 |
5.9 |
4.1 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
|
| Sebastian Groszek |
15.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
2.6 |
5.2 |
9.4 |
14.9 |
20.0 |
16.6 |
11.1 |
8.1 |
4.3 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
