Carmel
Boys - Girls
2024 - 2025 - 2026
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State Rank #4
Brownsburg Regional Rank #1
North Central (Indpls) Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 5th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.5%
Top 5 at State Finals 34.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 83.9%
Advance to State Finals 99.6%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Early Bird (4k) Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Golden Bear Invitational XC Town Twilight HSE JV Invitational Delta Eagle Invitational North Central (Indpls) Sectional Brownsburg Regional State Finals
Date 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 10/4 10/6 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1
Team Rating 158 336 200 189 150 301 169 482 454 204 198 174
Team Adjusted Rating 158 166 175 150 162 146 158 158 176 166 148
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Early Bird (4k) Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Golden Bear Invitational XC Town Twilight HSE JV Invitational Delta Eagle Invitational North Central (Indpls) Sectional Brownsburg Regional State Finals
22  Jonah Kaul 11 15:55 15:53 15:59 16:11 15:47 15:48 16:02 16:05 15:48
46  Deklin Bowser 12 16:09 16:31 16:15 16:12 15:58
52  Zach Flint 12 16:11 16:27 16:11 16:12 16:07 16:13 16:09 16:13 16:08
66  Carter Buhr 12 16:18 16:16 16:28 16:23 16:22 16:35 16:09 16:16
99  Lucas Bartlett 11 16:30 16:33 16:31 16:18 16:28 16:37 16:28
140  Ben Meisner 11 16:42 17:02 17:11 16:55 16:39 16:37 16:31 16:43 16:41 16:35
179  Cooper Szotek 11 16:48 17:10 16:52 16:27 18:00 16:46 16:49 16:38 16:47 17:04
192  Carter Kellett 9 16:51 16:31 16:43 16:47 17:00 16:57 17:01 16:49
194  Grant Vannahmen 10 16:51 17:37 16:49 16:40 16:36 16:41 16:43 17:12 16:36 17:07 16:59
249  Isaac Perrin 12 17:00 17:09 16:47 17:11 16:54 17:04 16:53 17:06 16:58
301  Cameron Scher-Millan 10 17:11 17:37 16:47 17:00 17:11 17:07 17:14 17:31
310  Grant Parkevich 10 17:13 17:45 16:56 17:07 17:21 17:15 17:27 16:59 17:17 17:09
412  Zachary Judy 11 17:27 17:32 17:26 17:43 17:30 17:16 17:19 17:23 17:19 17:33
506  Trevor Walton 11 17:37 17:37 18:21 17:36 17:36 17:57 17:27 17:40 17:30 17:13
586  Henry Nolan 9 17:45 17:35 17:50 17:49 17:25 17:43 17:55 17:45
587  Kerolos Khalil 11 17:45 18:24 17:20 17:35 17:38 17:20 17:40 18:09 18:24
604  Graham Moore 9 17:46 17:45 17:49 18:01 17:38 17:39 17:40 17:23 18:25
672  Nixon Trisler 10 17:54 18:29 17:01 17:41 18:17 17:34 18:09 18:40 17:56 17:37
706  Luke Lory 11 17:57 18:09 19:04 17:43 17:40 18:39 17:54 18:03 17:45 18:01
732  Drew Kuykendall 10 17:59 17:54 17:49 18:10 17:54 18:02 18:05 18:00 17:48
769  Jack Sims 11 18:02 18:44 17:57 18:07 17:51 18:19 17:51 17:48 18:12 18:04
815  Henry Lewis 9 18:05 17:58 18:10 18:18 18:02 18:05 17:49 17:48 18:30
887  Neil Adesara 11 18:13 18:13 18:04 18:04 18:12 18:07 17:46 18:46 18:23 19:33
893  Fletcher Jay 9 18:13 17:51 17:55 18:16 17:58 18:49 18:13 17:58 18:46
991  Andrew Orr 12 18:21 18:19 18:21 18:21 18:21 18:19 18:19 18:21
1,043  Nathan Yang 11 18:25 18:34 18:22 18:59 18:42 18:14 19:43 18:11 18:19
1,048  Easton Ulery 10 18:25 18:22 18:42 18:20 17:51 18:40 18:35 18:34 18:03
1,076  Marcus Primason 11 18:28 18:36 18:28 18:27
1,098  Nick Diehl 11 18:29 18:18 18:38 18:58 18:32 18:50 18:42 18:15 18:15 18:06
1,117  Griffin Jay 11 18:31 18:06 18:41 18:31 19:00 18:24 18:46 18:24 18:11
1,184  Nolan Whetstone 9 18:37 18:44 18:42 18:36 18:26 18:51 18:42 18:31 18:24
1,227  Quinn Sullivan 11 18:41 18:37 18:42 18:55 19:17 18:41 18:44 18:23 18:23
1,237  Pranad Sowale 10 18:42 19:24 18:40 18:36 18:27 18:24 18:41 19:11 18:34
1,255  Christian Block 10 18:42 18:43 18:52 18:29 18:21 18:52 18:47 18:35 18:49
1,290  Bryce Bontrager 10 18:46 18:46 19:21 19:10 18:27 18:53 18:22
1,319  Ben Snyder 11 18:49 18:37 18:47 18:58 18:48 19:37 19:14 21:02 18:31 18:09
1,365  Isaac Mehle 12 18:53 19:01 18:58 19:04 18:53 19:31 18:23 18:19 18:57 18:58
1,394  Suthirth Muddam 10 18:55 19:10 19:13 19:03 19:05 18:25 18:53 18:43
1,426  Cain Banfield 12 18:57 19:14 18:27 19:11 18:39 19:18 18:18 19:19
Caleb Corwin 9 19:07 18:33 19:17 19:15 18:55 19:16
Jesus Mejia 12 19:08 18:41 18:51 19:24 23:49
Will Heckaman 10 19:13 19:35 19:41 19:18 18:34 19:03
John Norton 11 19:13 18:39 19:58 19:25 21:06 18:29 18:35 19:59
Liam Ghaim 10 19:21 19:16 19:20 19:16 18:44 19:40 18:58 20:13
Neil Hackman 10 19:57 19:39 20:04 19:14 18:42 20:25 20:56




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 99.6% 7.2 235 0.5 2.8 6.9 10.4 13.5 13.1 12.0 10.2 7.7 6.8 5.2 3.9 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.8 77 50.8 26.6 14.1 6.9 1.1 0.4 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.2 27 78.1 20.5 1.4



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 100% 23.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.7 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.6 3.3 100.0% 100.0%
Zach Flint 100.0% 51.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.5 95.5% 99.9%
Carter Buhr 99.9% 66.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 77.3% 99.3%
Lucas Bartlett 99.6% 99.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5% 91.4%
Ben Meisner 99.6% 137.8 0.0% 64.9%
Cooper Szotek 99.6% 157.8 0.0% 44.0%
Carter Kellett 99.6% 167.5 0.0% 33.7%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 100% 3.0 16.8 18.3 14.9 12.6 9.8 7.6 5.5 4.5 3.0 2.3 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Zach Flint 100% 9.8 0.2 1.1 3.0 3.7 5.5 6.7 6.9 8.0 8.7 7.6 8.2 7.4 6.5 5.8 5.3 3.6 2.8 2.4 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Carter Buhr 100% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.3 3.4 4.5 5.1 6.3 6.6 7.8 8.2 7.2 7.8 6.4 5.6 4.6 4.5 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 0.8 100.0%
Lucas Bartlett 100% 20.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.7 3.5 4.0 5.0 5.8 6.3 6.2 5.5 6.0 5.5 4.8 4.8 3.9 3.8 100.0%
Ben Meisner 100% 30.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.5 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.8 100.0%
Cooper Szotek 100% 38.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.8 100.0%
Carter Kellett 100% 42.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 1.0 78.9 14.2 5.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
Zach Flint 2.6 2.5 33.6 24.5 23.7 9.9 3.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carter Buhr 3.9 0.2 9.4 21.0 22.1 26.5 10.3 4.2 2.4 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lucas Bartlett 5.9 0.3 2.2 8.2 13.4 27.8 15.0 9.1 6.9 5.0 3.4 2.7 1.9 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Ben Meisner 9.9 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.2 13.1 11.6 10.3 8.2 7.5 7.4 7.1 5.6 4.7 4.4 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cooper Szotek 13.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.9 6.7 7.0 7.6 7.8 7.3 7.0 7.3 6.6 7.1 5.6 6.0 5.1 4.9 4.0 2.7 1.0 0.4 0.2
Carter Kellett 14.5 0.1 0.5 2.2 4.0 5.2 6.1 6.6 7.2 6.6 7.6 7.1 7.1 6.3 7.0 6.8 6.3 5.6 4.3 1.8 0.8 0.4