Carmel
Boys - Girls
2024 - 2025 - 2026
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State Rank #4
Brownsburg Regional Rank #1
North Central (Indpls) Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 3rd place at State Finals
State Champion 1.5%
Top 5 at State Finals 68.6%
Top 10 at State Finals 96.2%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Early Bird (4k) Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Golden Bear Invitational XC Town Twilight HSE JV Invitational Delta Eagle Invitational
Date 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 10/4 10/6 10/11
Team Rating 174 352 213 198 157 319 178 499 480
Team Adjusted Rating 174 180 189 157 175 158 174 174
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Early Bird (4k) Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Golden Bear Invitational XC Town Twilight HSE JV Invitational Delta Eagle Invitational
20  Jonah Kaul 11 15:57 15:53 16:02 16:13 15:49 15:49
44  Deklin Bowser 12 16:13 16:31 16:17 16:14 16:00
46  Zach Flint 12 16:15 16:27 16:14 16:14 16:08 16:15
72  Carter Buhr 12 16:25 16:16 16:30 16:26 16:24
84  Lucas Bartlett 11 16:30 16:35 16:33 16:20
167  Cooper Szotek 11 16:49 17:10 16:55 16:29 18:03 16:49 16:52
172  Grant Vannahmen 10 16:50 17:37 16:52 16:42 16:38 16:43 16:47 17:15
174  Ben Meisner 11 16:50 17:02 17:14 16:57 16:42 16:41 16:34
185  Carter Kellett 9 16:52 16:33 16:46 16:49 17:03 16:59 17:03 16:53
229  Isaac Perrin 12 17:03 17:09 16:50 17:13 16:57 17:08 16:55 17:08 17:02
287  Cameron Scher-Millan 10 17:13 17:37 16:50 17:02 17:13 17:09 17:18 17:34
315  Grant Parkevich 10 17:17 17:45 16:59 17:09 17:23 17:18 17:31 17:03 17:19 17:13
410  Zachary Judy 11 17:30 17:32 17:29 17:47 17:33 17:19 17:23 17:27 17:22 17:37
503  Trevor Walton 11 17:41 17:37 18:25 17:39 17:39 18:00 17:31 17:44 17:33 17:17
538  Kerolos Khalil 11 17:46 18:24 17:23 17:38 17:41 17:23 17:44 18:12 18:29
545  Henry Nolan 9 17:47 17:38 17:54 17:51 17:27 17:45 17:58 17:49
575  Graham Moore 9 17:50 17:49 17:53 18:04 17:41 17:44 17:44 17:26 18:30
649  Nixon Trisler 10 17:57 18:29 17:04 17:44 18:20 17:37 18:14 18:45 17:59 17:41
683  Luke Lory 11 18:01 18:09 19:08 17:46 17:43 18:42 17:58 18:07 17:48 18:06
698  Drew Kuykendall 10 18:02 17:58 17:52 18:13 17:57 18:06 18:09 18:03 17:53
751  Jack Sims 11 18:06 18:44 18:01 18:10 17:54 18:22 17:55 17:52 18:15 18:09
780  Henry Lewis 9 18:09 18:01 18:13 18:21 18:05 18:10 17:52 17:51 18:35
836  Neil Adesara 11 18:13 18:13 18:07 18:07 18:15 18:10 17:50 18:51 18:26 19:40
849  Fletcher Jay 9 18:14 17:54 17:59 18:19 18:01 18:54 18:16 18:01 18:52
950  Andrew Orr 12 18:24 18:23 18:24 18:24 18:26 18:22 18:23 18:26
1,005  Easton Ulery 10 18:29 18:25 18:46 18:23 17:54 18:45 18:38 18:37 18:08
1,035  Nathan Yang 11 18:31 18:34 18:25 19:02 18:46 18:18 19:46 18:14 18:24
1,054  Marcus Primason 11 18:33 18:36 18:32 18:31
1,075  Griffin Jay 11 18:35 18:10 18:45 18:34 19:04 18:29 18:49 18:27 18:16
1,087  Nick Diehl 11 18:36 18:18 18:42 19:02 18:35 18:54 18:47 18:18 18:18 18:11
1,154  Nolan Whetstone 9 18:42 18:48 18:46 18:40 18:29 18:56 18:45 18:34 18:29
1,205  Pranad Sowale 10 18:46 19:29 18:44 18:39 18:30 18:29 18:44 19:14 18:40
1,208  Christian Block 10 18:46 18:47 18:56 18:33 18:24 18:57 18:50 18:39 18:54
1,214  Quinn Sullivan 11 18:46 18:42 18:46 18:58 19:21 18:46 18:47 18:27 18:29
1,300  Ben Snyder 11 18:53 18:37 18:51 19:02 18:52 19:41 19:19 21:06 18:34 18:14
1,303  Bryce Bontrager 10 18:54 18:50 19:25 19:13 18:30 18:58 18:28
1,356  Isaac Mehle 12 18:58 19:01 19:03 19:08 18:56 19:35 18:27 18:22 19:01 19:04
Cain Banfield 12 19:00 19:18 18:30 19:15 18:44 19:22 18:21 19:25
Suthirth Muddam 10 19:02 19:15 19:17 19:06 19:09 18:29 18:57 18:49
Jesus Mejia 12 19:03 18:41 18:55 19:28 24:00
Caleb Corwin 9 19:10 18:37 19:21 19:19 18:59 19:21
John Norton 11 19:17 18:39 20:03 19:28 21:11 18:32 18:38 20:06
Will Heckaman 10 19:20 19:40 19:45 19:22 18:37 19:08
Liam Ghaim 10 19:22 19:20 19:24 19:20 18:47 19:43 19:01 20:20
Neil Hackman 10 19:53 19:44 20:09 19:18 18:45 20:29 21:03




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100.0% 4.8 190 1.5 13.2 21.8 18.4 13.8 10.0 7.2 4.9 3.3 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2
Regionals 100% 1.5 64 67.0 23.0 7.9 1.7 0.4 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.1 22 94.6 5.2 0.2



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 100% 23.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 4.3 4.0 4.4 2.9 3.7 3.3 3.0 3.0 100.0% 100.0%
Deklin Bowser 100% 47.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 100.0% 99.8%
Zach Flint 100% 49.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 100.0% 99.7%
Carter Buhr 100.0% 74.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0% 96.6%
Lucas Bartlett 100.0% 88.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 92.7%
Cooper Szotek 100.0% 154.1 0.0% 42.4%
Grant Vannahmen 100.0% 157.1 0.0% 39.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 100% 3.3 10.1 18.8 16.7 14.2 12.3 9.3 5.8 4.4 3.2 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Deklin Bowser 100% 9.5 0.0 0.8 2.2 3.4 5.4 6.9 8.8 8.8 9.3 8.8 7.5 7.4 6.1 5.1 3.9 3.4 2.3 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.3 100.0%
Zach Flint 100% 10.2 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.9 4.6 6.5 7.2 8.2 8.8 8.3 7.9 7.4 6.8 5.3 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.4 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 100.0%
Carter Buhr 100% 16.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.0 3.3 4.5 4.9 6.0 5.5 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.3 5.4 4.7 4.6 4.1 3.2 2.8 3.3 2.6 100.0%
Lucas Bartlett 100% 19.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.5 4.7 4.7 4.2 4.2 3.3 100.0%
Cooper Szotek 100% 39.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.8 1.4 2.1 100.0%
Grant Vannahmen 100% 40.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.7 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 1.0 80.0 12.1 6.3 1.3 0.3 0.0
Deklin Bowser 2.9 2.2 26.2 23.9 22.2 16.0 5.3 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Zach Flint 3.1 1.2 21.1 24.5 22.1 18.4 7.9 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Carter Buhr 5.5 0.1 1.5 4.3 13.1 16.7 28.4 17.6 7.1 4.0 2.7 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Lucas Bartlett 6.4 0.4 1.8 5.6 11.4 18.9 29.3 11.1 6.9 4.3 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
Cooper Szotek 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.4 8.0 7.8 7.6 6.7 6.3 5.9 5.4 4.3 3.8 2.7 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
Grant Vannahmen 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 7.7 8.8 8.6 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.3 6.9 6.2 6.4 5.7 5.2 4.4 3.3 2.1 0.7 0.4 0.1