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2022 - 2023 - 2024
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State Rank #3
New Haven Regional Rank #2
Woodlan Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 2nd place at State Finals
State Champion 17.5%
Top 5 at State Finals 81.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 99.6%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic
Date 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23
Team Rating 152 159 128 145 172 206
Team Adjusted Rating 120 128 145 158 154
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic
Addison Knoblauch 12 17:15 17:38 16:54 17:12 17:36
42  Lucy Kramer 9 19:09 19:12 19:16 19:06 19:14 18:49
54  Caterina Perego 10 19:20 19:30 18:55 19:25 19:15 19:15
78  Lauren Saddington 12 19:33 19:33 19:19 19:12 19:23 19:36 19:48
87  Lindsey Arnold 9 19:38 19:24 19:13 19:46 19:42 19:48
108  Brier Saddington 10 19:50 20:22 19:29 19:45 19:45 19:42 19:49
127  Kaitlynn Hansen 9 19:56 19:39 20:12 19:49 19:57 19:52
176  Ella Antibus 9 20:13 20:08 20:15 20:22 20:09 19:53
190  Alexis Goebel 11 20:17 20:15 20:08 20:27 20:07 20:15 20:26
244  Daisy Niezer 10 20:34 20:30 20:30 20:28 20:17 20:39
329  Lindsay McGuire 12 20:55 21:15 20:50 21:00 20:44 20:38 20:50
454  Lydia Shaw 11 21:20 20:21 21:10 21:41 21:26 21:10
514  Lilia Chadwick 9 21:31 21:17 21:19 22:16 21:10
551  Kendall Burch 9 21:36 21:35 21:45 21:08
646  Madelyn Rodgers 10 21:52 22:19 21:48 21:32
887  Leah Smits 9 22:27 22:21 22:51 21:50
1,194  Yevva Ireland 10 23:08 22:56 23:12 22:56
1,279  Elsie Loshe 9 23:21 24:11 23:00 22:56
Zuri Christensen 10 23:47 23:37 23:56 23:21




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 3.6 169 17.5 19.6 18.2 14.4 11.3 8.8 5.2 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.8 63 36.5 50.9 12.6
Sectionals 100% 1.6 34 41.3 58.7



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Addison Knoblauch 100% 1.2 45.3 28.5 15.7 6.9 2.3 1.3 0.1 100.0%
Lucy Kramer 100% 48.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 99.9%
Caterina Perego 100% 58.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 99.5%
Lauren Saddington 100% 79.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 95.3%
Lindsey Arnold 100% 88.9 0.1 0.1 90.9%
Brier Saddington 100% 113.0 72.5%
Kaitlynn Hansen 100% 128.7 53.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Addison Knoblauch 100% 1.0 56.4 40.6 2.8 0.3 100.0%
Lucy Kramer 100% 12.0 0.1 1.9 4.6 6.9 7.9 10.3 9.7 8.4 9.2 7.9 7.1 5.1 4.4 3.8 3.2 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 100.0%
Caterina Perego 100% 14.7 0.4 1.9 3.5 4.0 5.4 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.7 7.9 7.3 7.4 6.2 5.9 5.1 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.6 100.0%
Lauren Saddington 100% 19.9 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.8 3.4 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.9 7.2 6.8 5.7 6.1 5.4 5.0 4.8 4.8 100.0%
Lindsey Arnold 100% 22.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.1 2.2 3.2 3.9 3.5 4.9 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.4 6.8 6.4 5.9 100.0%
Brier Saddington 100% 27.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.8 3.4 2.8 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.9 4.9 100.0%
Kaitlynn Hansen 100% 32.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.1 2.1 1.8 3.3 3.2 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Addison Knoblauch 1.0 99.5 0.5 0.1
Lucy Kramer 5.2 0.3 19.0 25.7 21.8 15.5 8.5 5.0 2.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1
Caterina Perego 6.5 0.1 6.1 15.2 20.1 18.8 16.2 9.8 7.5 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.3
Lauren Saddington 9.0 0.6 2.9 6.1 10.8 14.7 15.5 14.1 14.7 10.1 6.3 3.0 1.2 0.3
Lindsey Arnold 10.3 0.2 0.9 2.6 4.6 10.4 13.2 14.1 15.9 16.2 11.6 6.9 3.2 0.4 0.1
Brier Saddington 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 5.1 7.3 10.2 14.5 19.6 19.9 13.4 4.1 1.7 0.3
Kaitlynn Hansen 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.2 7.3 16.0 22.5 26.7 10.8 3.9 1.4 0.4 0.1