Lake Central
Boys - Girls
2022 - 2023 - 2024
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State Rank #14
New Prairie Regional Rank #3
Highland Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 12th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.3%
Top 10 at State Finals 13.7%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Valley Kickoff Larry James Invitational Rudy Skorupa Invitational Harrison Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational
Date 8/13 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23
Team Rating 292 355 278 264 231 289 360 742
Team Adjusted Rating 288 278 264 231 289 360 426
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Valley Kickoff Larry James Invitational Rudy Skorupa Invitational Harrison Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational
57  Chloe Neal 9 19:20 19:30 19:17 19:25 19:06 19:14 22:54
109  Addison Roth 12 19:51 19:38 21:22 20:01 19:33 19:19 19:56 20:18
148  Brigid Crowley 9 20:04 20:03 19:46 19:51 19:44 20:07 20:56
165  Nicole Vollrath 12 20:09 20:16 19:59 19:51 20:23 19:45 19:49 20:56
198  Mackenzie Smith 11 20:20 20:27 20:15 20:11 20:00 20:36 20:05 23:55
205  Sydney Churilla 12 20:23 20:03 20:01 20:27 20:10 20:09 20:41 20:37
272  Macey Thompson 9 20:41 20:16 20:19 20:13 20:46 20:48 22:22 21:51
341  Marie Weber 12 20:58 20:59 20:50 20:43 21:21 20:39 21:08 20:32
778  Essey Gonzalez 11 22:11 21:59 22:04 21:50 21:56 22:15 22:17 22:25 22:03
797  Madison Poortenga 10 22:14 21:51 22:30 22:02 21:57 22:26 22:17 21:54
805  Danielle Moore 12 22:16 22:11 22:23 23:15 21:40 21:49
930  Alexis Bonchik 9 22:32 22:24 22:26 22:05 23:06 22:17 22:32 22:36
954  Ava Giovane 12 22:36 23:36 22:17 22:24 22:04 22:39 22:19 23:06 22:21
1,195  Sophie Quiroga 9 23:09 22:23 22:40 22:57 23:04 23:22 23:47
1,209  Hailey Wisz 12 23:10 22:02 23:03 23:02 23:17 22:49 22:56 23:24 23:23
1,242  Tara Schassburger 11 23:16 21:45 23:35 22:57 23:38 23:02 23:26 22:53
Izzy Groszek 9 23:40 23:02 23:41 23:50
Daniela Ley 9 24:13 23:02 22:24 24:40 23:54 24:41 24:53




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 13.9 369 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.8 4.0 5.6 8.6 12.6 11.8 12.5 10.7 10.3 6.9 4.9 3.3 2.5 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.2
Regionals 100% 2.5 100 12.2 40.3 30.4 16.0 1.2
Sectionals 100% 1.0 27 98.9 1.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Chloe Neal 100% 59.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 100.0%
Addison Roth 100% 110.8 96.5%
Brigid Crowley 100% 142.5 0.1 80.0%
Nicole Vollrath 100% 152.0 69.8%
Mackenzie Smith 100% 172.8 42.3%
Sydney Churilla 100% 176.1 38.3%
Macey Thompson 100% 198.4 8.4%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Chloe Neal 100% 6.2 0.7 3.5 10.5 11.5 11.1 11.2 8.5 10.6 8.9 8.1 5.8 3.1 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Addison Roth 100% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.2 2.6 3.9 4.2 7.3 7.3 7.0 8.0 6.7 6.8 6.1 4.8 4.1 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 1.9 100.0%
Brigid Crowley 100% 22.9 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.8 2.7 3.4 3.5 4.3 3.4 4.4 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 3.3 100.0%
Nicole Vollrath 100% 26.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.7 4.5 4.2 3.3 100.0%
Mackenzie Smith 100% 34.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.5 2.4 100.0%
Sydney Churilla 100% 36.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.2 1.9 100.0%
Macey Thompson 100% 48.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Chloe Neal 1.0 84.5 11.3 3.1 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1
Addison Roth 2.8 1.6 30.2 22.4 15.9 12.2 8.5 5.1 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2
Brigid Crowley 5.7 0.1 3.6 10.1 12.4 13.7 14.3 14.6 11.1 8.6 5.8 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2
Nicole Vollrath 6.9 1.8 5.8 8.2 11.4 11.8 12.8 14.6 12.0 9.4 5.4 4.1 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Mackenzie Smith 9.4 0.3 0.6 2.1 4.1 6.2 7.9 9.4 13.7 15.3 13.7 10.1 7.0 4.3 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1
Sydney Churilla 9.8 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.7 5.5 5.5 8.2 12.7 16.7 15.3 11.1 9.1 4.1 2.8 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1
Macey Thompson 13.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.7 9.4 12.3 13.2 12.7 11.5 10.0 7.9 5.3 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.1