All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Valley Kickoff |
Larry James Invitational |
NLC Round Robin #1 |
Marion Invitational |
NLC Round Robin 2 |
Flashrock Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Northern Lakes Conference |
Manchester Sectional |
New Haven Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/13 |
8/19 |
8/29 |
9/2 |
9/12 |
9/16 |
9/23 |
9/30 |
10/14 |
10/21 |
10/28 |
| Team Rating |
324 | |
352 |
499 |
372 |
392 |
332 |
377 |
911 |
381 |
395 |
484 |
339 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
292 |
284 |
326 |
306 |
332 |
311 |
357 |
381 |
395 |
379 |
339 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Valley Kickoff |
Larry James Invitational |
NLC Round Robin #1 |
Marion Invitational |
NLC Round Robin 2 |
Flashrock Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Northern Lakes Conference |
Manchester Sectional |
New Haven Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| 11 |
Josefina Rastrelli |
12 |
18:25 |
18:05 |
17:47 |
|
18:55 |
18:03 |
18:33 |
18:01 |
|
18:32 |
18:30 |
19:02 |
18:29 |
| 145 |
Samantha Rastrelli |
10 |
20:01 |
20:17 |
19:39 |
19:45 |
19:52 |
|
20:11 |
20:01 |
|
20:02 |
19:59 |
19:56 |
20:09 |
| 226 |
Eden Metz |
10 |
20:31 |
20:16 |
20:17 |
19:52 |
20:24 |
20:04 |
20:01 |
|
|
20:42 |
20:59 |
20:40 |
20:37 |
| 235 |
Marrisa Howett |
12 |
20:33 |
20:42 |
|
20:28 |
20:33 |
20:37 |
20:12 |
20:13 |
|
20:38 |
20:35 |
|
20:44 |
| 256 |
Ella Laput |
11 |
20:39 |
20:38 |
|
|
|
|
21:44 |
22:37 |
21:13 |
23:05 |
21:21 |
21:13 |
20:31 |
| 482 |
Elizabeth Vander Bie |
12 |
21:31 |
20:33 |
21:06 |
21:55 |
21:26 |
21:03 |
21:11 |
20:46 |
|
22:02 |
|
23:39 |
22:11 |
| 548 |
Margot Sprankle |
10 |
21:40 |
22:13 |
21:37 |
21:37 |
21:30 |
21:14 |
21:38 |
21:37 |
|
21:17 |
21:39 |
22:18 |
21:46 |
| 827 |
Annabel Parker |
11 |
22:18 |
|
23:06 |
21:58 |
22:03 |
22:35 |
21:41 |
21:41 |
|
21:45 |
23:06 |
22:48 |
|
| 869 |
Madeline Lezark |
11 |
22:26 |
21:57 |
23:00 |
22:03 |
22:07 |
23:20 |
22:24 |
|
22:09 |
22:25 |
|
|
|
| 874 |
Issy Hermann |
12 |
22:27 |
22:20 |
|
23:04 |
|
|
22:35 |
21:48 |
|
25:18 |
|
|
|
| 927 |
Matilda Granger |
9 |
22:35 |
|
21:05 |
|
22:39 |
|
|
|
23:24 |
22:22 |
|
|
|
| 954 |
Bryce Eherenman |
11 |
22:39 |
22:17 |
22:19 |
22:53 |
22:29 |
23:30 |
22:23 |
22:35 |
22:33 |
22:39 |
|
|
|
| 999 |
Madeline Langhorn |
|
22:42 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
22:40 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1,116 |
Hannah Fisher |
10 |
23:00 |
22:38 |
23:26 |
23:29 |
22:39 |
23:12 |
22:47 |
23:15 |
22:35 |
22:57 |
|
|
|
| 1,208 |
Kaelyn Stoffel |
11 |
23:13 |
|
25:26 |
23:22 |
22:30 |
23:42 |
|
|
22:29 |
23:53 |
|
|
|
|
Mackenzie Langhorn |
11 |
23:55 |
|
21:52 |
22:56 |
|
23:01 |
24:08 |
24:10 |
24:14 |
24:47 |
|
|
|
|
Margaret Barnett |
11 |
24:16 |
22:34 |
|
27:55 |
23:44 |
|
23:24 |
26:59 |
25:08 |
24:29 |
|
|
|
|
Abygail Hermann |
12 |
24:35 |
|
25:08 |
23:42 |
25:09 |
|
24:30 |
24:54 |
|
24:02 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
100% |
17.3 |
424 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
3.6 |
4.8 |
6.5 |
8.9 |
10.2 |
11.0 |
13.1 |
14.5 |
10.3 |
8.2 |
4.4 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
|
| Regionals |
100% |
4.0 |
162 |
|
|
23.0 |
54.1 |
22.0 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.0 |
52 |
97.2 |
2.6 |
0.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Josefina Rastrelli |
100% |
10.6 |
|
0.1 |
0.6 |
2.1 |
4.5 |
6.0 |
7.6 |
7.8 |
8.5 |
7.8 |
8.8 |
6.9 |
6.6 |
5.3 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
3.3 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
|
100.0% |
| Samantha Rastrelli |
100% |
136.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
48.0% |
| Eden Metz |
100% |
183.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.2% |
| Marrisa Howett |
100% |
186.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.4% |
| Ella Laput |
100% |
193.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.9% |
| Elizabeth Vander Bie |
100% |
234.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Margot Sprankle |
100% |
237.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Josefina Rastrelli |
100% |
4.1 |
0.1 |
8.6 |
19.0 |
19.2 |
30.7 |
14.5 |
6.3 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Samantha Rastrelli |
100% |
31.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Eden Metz |
100% |
47.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Marrisa Howett |
100% |
48.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Ella Laput |
100% |
52.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
100.0% |
| Elizabeth Vander Bie |
100% |
86.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Margot Sprankle |
100% |
93.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Josefina Rastrelli |
1.0 |
71.3 |
21.5 |
7.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Samantha Rastrelli |
9.5 |
|
|
|
0.7 |
1.7 |
3.2 |
5.9 |
10.1 |
16.2 |
23.2 |
33.8 |
4.4 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Eden Metz |
12.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
2.0 |
5.9 |
27.1 |
30.0 |
17.6 |
10.0 |
4.6 |
1.9 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Marrisa Howett |
12.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.8 |
5.5 |
23.1 |
25.4 |
22.0 |
13.7 |
5.9 |
2.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ella Laput |
13.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
2.5 |
10.1 |
18.0 |
27.6 |
23.0 |
12.7 |
4.7 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Elizabeth Vander Bie |
18.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.4 |
2.7 |
8.8 |
28.4 |
23.7 |
15.5 |
9.1 |
5.2 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
| Margot Sprankle |
19.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.5 |
2.5 |
11.4 |
20.1 |
20.5 |
14.5 |
12.2 |
7.7 |
4.2 |
2.6 |
|
