Warsaw
Boys - Girls
2022 - 2023 - 2024
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State Rank #17
New Haven Regional Rank #4
Manchester Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 15th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 1.6%
Advance to State Finals 99.4%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Valley Kickoff Larry James Invitational NLC Round Robin #1 Marion Invitational NLC Round Robin 2 Flashrock Invitational Culver Academies Invitational
Date 8/13 8/19 8/29 9/2 9/12 9/16 9/23
Team Rating 313 322 462 350 345 316 343 868
Team Adjusted Rating 291 308 350 290 316 270 313
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Valley Kickoff Larry James Invitational NLC Round Robin #1 Marion Invitational NLC Round Robin 2 Flashrock Invitational Culver Academies Invitational
Josefina Rastrelli 12 17:54 18:05 17:39 18:50 17:52 18:29 17:53
119  Samantha Rastrelli 10 19:54 20:17 19:30 19:36 19:46 20:06 19:52
155  Eden Metz 10 20:05 20:16 20:08 19:44 20:18 19:52 19:56
211  Marrisa Howett 12 20:24 20:42 20:19 20:27 20:24 20:08 20:03
370  Elizabeth Vander Bie 12 21:04 20:33 20:57 21:45 21:20 20:50 21:07 20:36
519  Margot Sprankle 10 21:32 22:13 21:28 21:27 21:24 21:01 21:33 21:26
528  Ella Laput 21:33 20:38 21:40 22:26 21:05
708  Annabel Parker 11 22:00 22:56 21:48 21:57 22:20 21:37 21:31
826  Madeline Lezark 11 22:19 21:57 22:50 21:53 22:01 23:05 22:19 22:01
870  Issy Hermann 12 22:24 22:20 22:53 22:31 21:37
906  Bryce Eherenman 11 22:30 22:17 22:09 22:43 22:22 23:15 22:18 22:24 22:25
907  Matilda Granger 9 22:30 20:56 22:33 23:12
937  Madeline Langhorn 22:33 22:29
1,078  Kaelyn Stoffel 11 22:52 25:15 23:11 22:23 23:27 22:18
1,108  Hannah Fisher 10 22:56 22:38 23:16 23:18 22:33 22:57 22:43 23:04 22:27
1,287  Mackenzie Langhorn 11 23:22 21:42 22:45 22:46 24:03 23:58 24:05
Margaret Barnett 11 23:43 22:34 27:41 23:37 23:19 26:45 24:56
Abygail Hermann 12 24:51 24:56 23:31 25:03 24:25 24:41




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 99.4% 16.2 410 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.1 5.4 8.1 11.1 12.9 12.2 12.8 10.9 9.2 5.7 3.7 1.7 0.8 0.6
Regionals 100% 4.1 162 1.1 85.7 12.7 0.6 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 48 99.0 1.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Josefina Rastrelli 100% 5.8 0.2 1.4 4.3 8.6 16.7 25.2 16.0 10.1 6.3 3.6 2.7 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0% 100.0%
Samantha Rastrelli 99.5% 120.3 8.3% 63.0%
Eden Metz 99.4% 146.7 0.0% 34.7%
Marrisa Howett 99.4% 177.6 0.0% 7.3%
Elizabeth Vander Bie 99.4% 220.1 0.0% 0.0%
Margot Sprankle 99.4% 235.8 0.0% 0.0%
Ella Laput 99.4% 236.9 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Josefina Rastrelli 100% 2.6 0.8 5.2 69.3 13.9 9.2 1.7 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Samantha Rastrelli 100% 30.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.6 2.3 2.0 2.8 3.5 3.0 3.9 100.0%
Eden Metz 100% 36.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.4 100.0%
Marrisa Howett 100% 46.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Elizabeth Vander Bie 100% 69.0 100.0%
Margot Sprankle 100% 91.4 100.0%
Ella Laput 100% 92.9 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Josefina Rastrelli 1.0 97.7 2.3 0.1
Samantha Rastrelli 7.7 0.4 2.4 6.2 11.0 17.1 19.6 17.2 15.5 8.0 2.2 0.5 0.2
Eden Metz 9.6 0.4 1.2 3.1 6.7 11.5 15.2 20.4 25.3 10.7 3.7 1.6 0.4 0.1
Marrisa Howett 11.7 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.9 6.8 14.5 33.8 19.3 10.9 7.4 1.7 0.2
Elizabeth Vander Bie 16.0 0.4 2.9 6.9 10.8 28.8 31.5 13.5 3.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
Margot Sprankle 18.8 0.2 0.5 1.6 7.0 20.9 26.2 19.5 9.8 5.4 3.7 2.6 1.3
Ella Laput 19.1 0.1 0.5 1.6 7.3 16.3 23.1 21.4 12.2 6.7 4.6 2.8 1.8