All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Elkhart Early Bird |
Huntington North Invitational |
Oak Hill Invitational |
NECC 6-Way |
Manchester Invitational |
New Prairie Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Northeast Corner Conference |
Goshen Sectional |
New Prairie Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/17 |
8/23 |
8/30 |
9/2 |
9/6 |
9/20 |
9/27 |
10/4 |
10/18 |
10/25 |
11/1 |
| Team Rating |
527 | |
742 |
664 |
571 |
696 |
580 |
545 |
567 |
479 |
516 |
546 |
|
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
742 |
664 |
571 |
696 |
580 |
545 |
567 |
479 |
516 |
546 |
|
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Elkhart Early Bird |
Huntington North Invitational |
Oak Hill Invitational |
NECC 6-Way |
Manchester Invitational |
New Prairie Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Northeast Corner Conference |
Goshen Sectional |
New Prairie Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| 127 |
Layna Stoltzfus |
9 |
19:58 |
|
20:57 |
20:33 |
19:59 |
21:08 |
20:22 |
20:23 |
20:07 |
19:53 |
20:06 |
19:47 |
19:58 |
| 353 |
Lyla Dennis |
11 |
20:57 |
21:17 |
21:32 |
21:17 |
20:53 |
21:12 |
20:59 |
21:06 |
21:38 |
20:39 |
20:48 |
20:46 |
|
| 355 |
Lorelei Shively |
11 |
20:58 |
22:06 |
21:49 |
21:23 |
21:00 |
21:09 |
20:48 |
20:42 |
20:43 |
20:53 |
20:42 |
20:58 |
|
| 393 |
Natalee Lambright |
12 |
21:07 |
20:39 |
20:38 |
20:55 |
21:08 |
21:09 |
21:04 |
20:45 |
20:48 |
21:00 |
21:36 |
21:30 |
|
| 481 |
Julianna Hinkle |
10 |
21:25 |
|
23:14 |
22:42 |
22:09 |
22:45 |
22:11 |
21:52 |
21:51 |
21:09 |
21:03 |
21:40 |
|
|
Elliot Carl |
9 |
24:06 |
|
23:29 |
24:10 |
24:22 |
24:44 |
25:34 |
24:20 |
24:36 |
24:27 |
23:42 |
24:29 |
|
|
Nyra Leach |
11 |
25:06 |
25:08 |
25:16 |
25:23 |
24:35 |
24:07 |
24:10 |
25:21 |
26:32 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
1.2% |
23.5 |
559 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
| Regionals |
100% |
9.8 |
284 |
|
|
|
0.2 |
1.0 |
3.3 |
8.0 |
13.9 |
18.3 |
19.1 |
16.6 |
10.3 |
5.6 |
2.7 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.5 |
61 |
60.0 |
34.7 |
4.6 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Layna Stoltzfus |
72.6% |
114.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
72.2% |
72.6% |
| Lyla Dennis |
1.3% |
190.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
| Lorelei Shively |
1.2% |
186.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
| Natalee Lambright |
1.2% |
209.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Julianna Hinkle |
1.2% |
222.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Elliot Carl |
1.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Layna Stoltzfus |
100% |
23.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
2.9 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
4.6 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
4.2 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Lyla Dennis |
100% |
67.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Lorelei Shively |
100% |
68.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Natalee Lambright |
100% |
77.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Julianna Hinkle |
100% |
93.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Layna Stoltzfus |
2.5 |
|
35.5 |
27.1 |
19.0 |
11.2 |
4.9 |
1.8 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Lyla Dennis |
11.3 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
2.8 |
5.4 |
7.8 |
9.7 |
10.5 |
10.2 |
10.3 |
9.1 |
8.8 |
7.4 |
6.6 |
4.8 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
| Lorelei Shively |
11.4 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
2.3 |
4.3 |
7.8 |
9.6 |
9.8 |
11.2 |
10.7 |
10.0 |
8.6 |
8.4 |
6.2 |
4.3 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Natalee Lambright |
13.8 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2.8 |
3.6 |
5.9 |
7.6 |
9.2 |
10.5 |
10.5 |
10.1 |
10.3 |
8.4 |
7.0 |
4.6 |
3.2 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
| Julianna Hinkle |
18.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
2.7 |
4.1 |
6.3 |
8.3 |
10.2 |
12.4 |
12.7 |
11.5 |
9.0 |
6.0 |
3.9 |
3.0 |
2.0 |
|
