All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Warsaw Classic |
Larry James Invitational |
NLC Round #1 |
Marion Invitational |
NLC Round Robin #2 |
Flashrock Invitational |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
Northern Lakes Conference |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/17 |
8/23 |
9/2 |
9/6 |
9/16 |
9/20 |
9/20 |
9/27 |
10/4 |
| Team Rating |
394 | |
307 |
342 |
565 |
393 |
382 |
399 |
|
347 |
387 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
307 |
342 |
559 |
389 |
382 |
399 |
394 |
347 |
387 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Warsaw Classic |
Larry James Invitational |
NLC Round #1 |
Marion Invitational |
NLC Round Robin #2 |
Flashrock Invitational |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
Northern Lakes Conference |
|---|
| 33 |
Samantha Rastrelli |
12 |
18:56 |
19:14 |
19:24 |
19:08 |
21:11 |
19:03 |
18:57 |
18:44 |
|
18:41 |
18:58 |
| 93 |
Dani Rastrelli |
9 |
19:43 |
|
19:45 |
19:53 |
19:57 |
19:49 |
19:45 |
19:27 |
|
19:13 |
19:48 |
| 149 |
Eden Metz |
12 |
20:10 |
19:43 |
20:01 |
20:16 |
21:10 |
20:01 |
20:04 |
20:04 |
|
20:10 |
20:05 |
| 397 |
Hannah Fisher |
12 |
21:16 |
21:26 |
20:57 |
21:16 |
21:17 |
21:35 |
20:58 |
21:31 |
|
20:49 |
21:15 |
| 405 |
Abigail Marsh |
12 |
21:19 |
|
19:56 |
20:02 |
|
|
22:10 |
22:19 |
|
21:33 |
21:13 |
| 468 |
Katie Robertson |
10 |
21:31 |
|
20:53 |
23:20 |
21:38 |
21:23 |
22:04 |
21:32 |
|
21:27 |
21:20 |
| 518 |
Aubrey Bricker |
10 |
21:38 |
21:22 |
20:51 |
21:21 |
21:28 |
22:33 |
|
|
|
22:41 |
|
| 525 |
Savannah Purdy |
11 |
21:39 |
|
22:05 |
21:23 |
22:52 |
22:07 |
21:28 |
21:32 |
|
21:30 |
21:37 |
| 547 |
Stephanie Malagon-Juarez |
11 |
21:43 |
21:28 |
21:12 |
21:25 |
21:26 |
21:45 |
22:10 |
|
|
22:51 |
|
| 627 |
Stephanie Malagon |
|
21:55 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
21:55 |
|
|
|
| 665 |
Eden Gackenheimer |
9 |
22:02 |
|
21:09 |
21:41 |
22:37 |
21:10 |
22:18 |
22:04 |
|
23:09 |
|
| 699 |
Kyla Transparenti |
10 |
22:07 |
21:47 |
22:18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 740 |
Matilda Granger |
11 |
22:14 |
22:27 |
|
|
21:32 |
21:57 |
23:20 |
22:51 |
|
21:47 |
|
| 1,168 |
Melayna Howett |
12 |
23:18 |
|
22:48 |
23:06 |
23:17 |
23:31 |
23:06 |
|
23:36 |
25:23 |
|
|
Nadia Patton |
11 |
23:38 |
23:04 |
22:52 |
26:21 |
23:19 |
24:54 |
23:25 |
|
23:52 |
23:53 |
|
|
Airyana Bradley |
12 |
23:45 |
23:15 |
25:01 |
23:51 |
24:16 |
23:55 |
23:18 |
|
23:29 |
23:18 |
|
|
Neko Ewert |
11 |
24:00 |
23:52 |
23:55 |
23:50 |
24:06 |
23:23 |
24:07 |
|
24:20 |
24:05 |
|
|
Estelle Jaumard |
9 |
24:11 |
|
23:33 |
23:26 |
24:15 |
23:32 |
24:43 |
|
24:26 |
25:17 |
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
74.3% |
18.9 |
447 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
3.6 |
5.1 |
7.2 |
8.4 |
9.8 |
10.9 |
10.4 |
7.1 |
4.4 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
| Regionals |
100% |
4.9 |
168 |
|
0.0 |
9.1 |
24.5 |
40.8 |
19.2 |
6.3 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.7 |
43 |
31.0 |
69.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Samantha Rastrelli |
100% |
35.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Dani Rastrelli |
100% |
89.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Eden Metz |
97.6% |
135.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
90.7% |
96.8% |
| Hannah Fisher |
74.3% |
223.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
1.3% |
| Abigail Marsh |
74.3% |
225.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.7% |
| Katie Robertson |
74.3% |
232.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
| Aubrey Bricker |
74.3% |
236.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Samantha Rastrelli |
100% |
7.0 |
|
0.4 |
2.8 |
9.0 |
12.7 |
13.4 |
12.2 |
11.4 |
9.7 |
8.5 |
5.7 |
4.7 |
3.5 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Dani Rastrelli |
100% |
20.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
5.4 |
6.5 |
7.3 |
7.6 |
8.3 |
8.7 |
8.3 |
7.9 |
6.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Eden Metz |
100% |
28.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
3.3 |
4.7 |
5.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Hannah Fisher |
100% |
61.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Abigail Marsh |
100% |
63.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Katie Robertson |
100% |
72.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Aubrey Bricker |
100% |
78.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Samantha Rastrelli |
2.3 |
1.8 |
21.6 |
76.1 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Dani Rastrelli |
3.8 |
|
|
0.1 |
63.0 |
26.4 |
7.1 |
2.3 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Eden Metz |
6.2 |
|
|
|
2.0 |
14.9 |
28.7 |
22.7 |
17.3 |
10.7 |
3.0 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Hannah Fisher |
14.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
3.2 |
6.6 |
10.3 |
12.7 |
15.1 |
16.3 |
13.4 |
10.2 |
5.2 |
3.2 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
| Abigail Marsh |
14.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
8.5 |
10.7 |
13.7 |
15.3 |
15.1 |
11.7 |
8.0 |
4.9 |
2.1 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
| Katie Robertson |
16.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
3.9 |
6.2 |
8.9 |
13.1 |
15.7 |
16.3 |
11.5 |
8.3 |
5.0 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
| Aubrey Bricker |
18.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
2.2 |
5.1 |
8.0 |
11.5 |
16.5 |
16.7 |
12.8 |
8.1 |
5.8 |
3.9 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
|
