All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
John Cleland Early Bird (4k) |
Taylor University Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Northrop Bruin Invitational |
Flashrock Invitational |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
XC Town Twilight |
New Haven Sectional |
New Haven Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/23 |
8/30 |
9/6 |
9/13 |
9/20 |
9/20 |
9/27 |
10/4 |
10/18 |
10/25 |
11/1 |
| Team Rating |
156 | |
197 |
215 |
156 |
347 |
185 |
804 |
144 |
169 |
165 |
187 |
169 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
197 |
206 |
156 |
159 |
185 |
156 |
144 |
169 |
152 |
168 |
158 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
John Cleland Early Bird (4k) |
Taylor University Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Northrop Bruin Invitational |
Flashrock Invitational |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
XC Town Twilight |
New Haven Sectional |
New Haven Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| 21 |
Clare Lebrija |
10 |
18:35 |
|
19:00 |
18:55 |
19:02 |
|
19:09 |
|
18:33 |
19:06 |
18:57 |
18:49 |
18:28 |
| 22 |
Caterina Perego |
12 |
18:38 |
18:48 |
19:24 |
19:51 |
19:04 |
|
19:48 |
|
19:09 |
18:33 |
18:52 |
18:28 |
19:02 |
| 65 |
Daisy Niezer |
12 |
19:23 |
19:34 |
19:43 |
19:34 |
19:23 |
|
19:29 |
|
19:12 |
19:24 |
19:05 |
19:23 |
19:20 |
| 85 |
Lindsey Arnold |
11 |
19:37 |
19:05 |
19:40 |
|
19:19 |
|
19:26 |
|
19:21 |
19:41 |
|
20:13 |
|
| 92 |
Avalyn Goldstone |
10 |
19:44 |
19:10 |
19:53 |
19:37 |
19:26 |
19:48 |
19:36 |
|
19:32 |
19:50 |
|
|
19:54 |
| 93 |
Lucy Kramer |
11 |
19:45 |
18:52 |
|
|
20:38 |
20:18 |
|
|
19:56 |
19:42 |
19:30 |
|
19:37 |
| 99 |
Kaitlynn Hansen |
11 |
19:48 |
19:25 |
19:33 |
19:48 |
19:29 |
|
19:21 |
|
19:48 |
19:40 |
19:57 |
19:51 |
20:17 |
| 137 |
Ella Antibus |
11 |
20:01 |
19:36 |
|
|
|
20:21 |
20:18 |
|
20:04 |
20:01 |
20:02 |
20:24 |
19:53 |
| 185 |
Kylie Kottkamp |
10 |
20:18 |
20:09 |
19:50 |
20:04 |
20:17 |
20:24 |
20:32 |
|
20:12 |
20:21 |
|
21:38 |
|
| 241 |
Iris Salisbury |
9 |
20:28 |
|
20:42 |
20:31 |
20:17 |
20:15 |
20:15 |
|
20:57 |
20:29 |
22:15 |
|
|
| 280 |
Harper Stiltner |
10 |
20:38 |
20:24 |
20:37 |
20:37 |
21:07 |
20:27 |
20:42 |
|
20:15 |
20:40 |
|
|
|
| 347 |
Leah Smits |
11 |
20:56 |
20:43 |
21:44 |
21:16 |
21:01 |
21:11 |
|
20:34 |
20:23 |
20:47 |
|
|
|
| 463 |
Sara Moreau |
12 |
21:21 |
|
21:03 |
|
|
|
|
21:45 |
21:06 |
21:19 |
|
|
|
| 575 |
Lilia Chadwick |
11 |
21:40 |
21:17 |
21:06 |
21:42 |
21:56 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 583 |
Brier Saddington |
12 |
21:41 |
20:01 |
22:25 |
21:45 |
22:17 |
21:35 |
|
21:17 |
21:29 |
21:35 |
|
|
|
| 944 |
Kendall Burch |
11 |
22:37 |
21:18 |
|
|
|
22:50 |
|
22:48 |
22:15 |
22:27 |
|
|
|
| 1,019 |
Kaelyn Godfrey |
11 |
22:47 |
22:44 |
22:56 |
22:44 |
23:11 |
22:43 |
|
22:45 |
22:23 |
22:47 |
|
|
|
| 1,271 |
Zuri Christensen |
12 |
23:24 |
23:04 |
23:42 |
23:27 |
23:29 |
23:11 |
|
23:15 |
22:45 |
23:56 |
|
|
|
| 1,301 |
Yevva Ireland |
12 |
23:28 |
23:10 |
|
23:18 |
|
23:33 |
|
23:09 |
23:08 |
24:31 |
|
|
|
| 1,306 |
Elsie Loshe |
11 |
23:29 |
23:14 |
24:10 |
23:37 |
24:02 |
23:16 |
|
23:17 |
23:04 |
23:23 |
|
|
|
|
Kylie Kenefic |
12 |
23:41 |
|
|
23:55 |
24:05 |
24:01 |
|
23:37 |
22:57 |
23:29 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
100% |
3.7 |
170 |
4.3 |
19.8 |
25.5 |
22.9 |
13.5 |
7.7 |
3.5 |
1.7 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
1.6 |
57 |
37.2 |
62.6 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.6 |
38 |
36.6 |
63.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Clare Lebrija |
100% |
21.6 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
|
100.0% |
| Caterina Perego |
100% |
23.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
4.1 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Daisy Niezer |
100% |
63.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Lindsey Arnold |
100% |
83.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99.8% |
| Avalyn Goldstone |
100% |
94.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99.6% |
| Lucy Kramer |
100% |
96.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99.6% |
| Kaitlynn Hansen |
100% |
101.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
98.9% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Clare Lebrija |
100% |
3.7 |
4.5 |
11.4 |
19.8 |
20.7 |
16.6 |
11.6 |
7.2 |
4.3 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Caterina Perego |
100% |
4.0 |
2.9 |
9.1 |
17.5 |
20.8 |
18.1 |
13.3 |
8.2 |
4.7 |
3.0 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Daisy Niezer |
100% |
13.3 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
4.5 |
6.9 |
7.8 |
10.6 |
11.6 |
10.4 |
10.1 |
7.6 |
6.2 |
5.1 |
3.9 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
|
100.0% |
| Lindsey Arnold |
100% |
17.8 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
4.3 |
6.0 |
7.9 |
8.0 |
8.8 |
8.5 |
7.5 |
7.0 |
6.0 |
5.2 |
4.4 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Avalyn Goldstone |
100% |
20.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
3.3 |
4.3 |
5.2 |
6.0 |
6.6 |
7.3 |
7.6 |
7.0 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
5.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Lucy Kramer |
100% |
21.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
2.7 |
3.7 |
4.9 |
5.5 |
6.6 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
7.2 |
7.2 |
6.4 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
|
100.0% |
| Kaitlynn Hansen |
100% |
22.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
5.6 |
6.0 |
6.4 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
7.8 |
6.4 |
6.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Clare Lebrija |
2.6 |
7.9 |
25.9 |
27.0 |
21.1 |
12.5 |
4.1 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Caterina Perego |
2.9 |
5.7 |
19.9 |
27.8 |
23.5 |
16.2 |
4.6 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Daisy Niezer |
8.2 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
8.6 |
15.5 |
19.2 |
19.4 |
15.6 |
8.2 |
5.2 |
2.6 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Lindsey Arnold |
10.9 |
|
|
|
|
0.3 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
6.7 |
10.1 |
14.5 |
16.1 |
13.4 |
11.4 |
8.6 |
6.5 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Avalyn Goldstone |
12.5 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
2.4 |
4.4 |
7.8 |
12.3 |
14.2 |
14.5 |
13.2 |
10.4 |
8.7 |
6.8 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
| Lucy Kramer |
12.8 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.2 |
0.8 |
1.9 |
4.8 |
7.5 |
10.1 |
13.4 |
13.7 |
13.5 |
11.2 |
10.0 |
7.8 |
2.9 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
| Kaitlynn Hansen |
13.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
3.0 |
4.9 |
8.2 |
10.6 |
13.5 |
14.9 |
12.5 |
11.7 |
10.9 |
3.9 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
