All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Elkhart Early Bird |
State Preview |
Manchester Invitational |
Wildcat/Jackson Classic Invitational |
Minutemen Classic |
New Prairie Invitational |
Dana Homo JV Invite |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Northern Indiana Conference |
New Prairie Sectional |
New Prairie Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/17 |
9/6 |
9/6 |
9/13 |
9/13 |
9/20 |
9/23 |
9/27 |
10/4 |
10/18 |
10/25 |
11/1 |
| Team Rating |
186 | |
212 |
177 |
744 |
180 |
885 |
165 |
1,014 |
202 |
239 |
202 |
187 |
188 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
212 |
177 |
186 |
180 |
186 |
165 |
186 |
202 |
239 |
202 |
187 |
188 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Elkhart Early Bird |
State Preview |
Manchester Invitational |
Wildcat/Jackson Classic Invitational |
Minutemen Classic |
New Prairie Invitational |
Dana Homo JV Invite |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Northern Indiana Conference |
New Prairie Sectional |
New Prairie Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| 11 |
Lila Van Hoveln |
11 |
18:16 |
18:32 |
18:35 |
18:14 |
|
18:46 |
|
18:26 |
|
18:34 |
19:22 |
18:57 |
18:27 |
18:09 |
| 14 |
Shreya Nayee |
10 |
18:22 |
18:20 |
18:33 |
18:13 |
|
18:30 |
|
18:21 |
|
18:52 |
19:10 |
18:45 |
18:39 |
18:14 |
| 86 |
Gabby Smith |
12 |
19:38 |
19:47 |
19:26 |
19:40 |
|
19:29 |
|
19:38 |
|
19:33 |
19:40 |
19:40 |
19:34 |
19:48 |
| 107 |
Ari Balinnang |
12 |
19:50 |
19:35 |
19:55 |
20:04 |
|
19:45 |
|
19:26 |
|
20:04 |
19:53 |
19:42 |
19:55 |
19:46 |
| 176 |
Riley Holland |
9 |
20:15 |
|
20:51 |
20:23 |
|
20:10 |
|
20:22 |
|
20:08 |
20:39 |
20:13 |
20:04 |
20:19 |
| 215 |
Cali Lederer |
9 |
20:24 |
|
|
|
20:47 |
20:30 |
|
20:38 |
|
20:38 |
21:12 |
20:26 |
20:13 |
20:24 |
| 260 |
Sami Pentelow |
10 |
20:32 |
20:21 |
20:43 |
19:50 |
|
20:04 |
|
20:06 |
|
20:31 |
20:19 |
21:21 |
20:33 |
21:13 |
| 510 |
Jena Nash |
11 |
21:29 |
|
|
|
21:24 |
22:04 |
|
21:10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 543 |
Kelsey Meyer |
12 |
21:36 |
23:28 |
21:30 |
22:19 |
|
|
21:47 |
21:26 |
|
21:18 |
|
|
|
|
| 560 |
Sophia Linton |
11 |
21:38 |
|
21:41 |
|
21:34 |
21:41 |
|
21:55 |
|
21:21 |
|
|
|
|
| 584 |
June Seiss |
9 |
21:41 |
|
21:11 |
21:51 |
|
21:19 |
|
21:50 |
|
21:53 |
|
|
|
|
| 588 |
Erica Ramirez |
9 |
21:42 |
|
21:54 |
|
22:06 |
|
21:43 |
21:22 |
|
21:38 |
|
|
|
|
| 596 |
Siena Mammolenti |
10 |
21:43 |
23:15 |
21:28 |
21:41 |
|
21:42 |
|
22:08 |
|
21:29 |
|
|
|
|
| 658 |
Ella Neuenschwander |
11 |
21:55 |
21:46 |
21:36 |
21:31 |
|
21:46 |
|
22:24 |
|
22:00 |
|
|
|
|
| 795 |
Daniela Bolster |
9 |
22:14 |
|
22:01 |
|
22:20 |
|
22:25 |
22:05 |
|
22:08 |
|
|
|
|
| 810 |
Marshall Rodriguez |
12 |
22:17 |
|
22:01 |
|
22:38 |
|
22:15 |
22:25 |
|
22:06 |
|
|
|
|
| 824 |
Leneah McDaniel |
10 |
22:20 |
|
22:17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 845 |
Heila Liu |
11 |
22:23 |
23:10 |
21:30 |
22:42 |
|
|
22:24 |
22:41 |
|
22:09 |
|
|
|
|
| 879 |
Eleanor Niemier |
9 |
22:26 |
|
|
|
22:39 |
|
22:30 |
|
22:28 |
22:06 |
|
|
|
|
| 959 |
Karina Vacaro |
9 |
22:39 |
|
22:44 |
|
22:21 |
|
22:47 |
23:11 |
22:01 |
22:42 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,041 |
Sarah Hungeman |
10 |
22:52 |
23:12 |
21:29 |
23:06 |
|
|
23:26 |
22:52 |
22:39 |
22:47 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,062 |
Riley Hoover |
9 |
22:56 |
|
22:59 |
|
22:38 |
|
22:56 |
23:06 |
22:53 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1,168 |
Morgan Branson |
9 |
23:10 |
|
23:40 |
|
23:13 |
|
23:09 |
23:04 |
22:47 |
23:12 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,169 |
Marie Stambaugh |
10 |
23:10 |
|
23:41 |
|
23:02 |
|
|
25:11 |
22:47 |
23:15 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,269 |
Hannah Luck |
11 |
23:24 |
23:26 |
24:13 |
|
22:39 |
|
23:14 |
23:31 |
23:31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alexis Luebke |
11 |
24:19 |
|
23:21 |
|
23:43 |
|
24:41 |
24:36 |
23:42 |
25:31 |
|
|
|
|
|
Melia Lotaki-Reynolds |
11 |
24:40 |
23:31 |
23:07 |
|
|
|
24:35 |
24:26 |
24:47 |
25:42 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
100% |
6.3 |
226 |
0.3 |
2.8 |
6.1 |
11.4 |
17.3 |
21.0 |
15.6 |
9.8 |
6.7 |
4.0 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
1.6 |
71 |
40.2 |
58.1 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.0 |
19 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Lila Van Hoveln |
100% |
11.1 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
2.3 |
3.4 |
4.2 |
5.0 |
6.5 |
6.6 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
6.5 |
5.8 |
5.5 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Shreya Nayee |
100% |
14.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
5.6 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
3.1 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
|
100.0% |
| Gabby Smith |
100% |
84.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
95.4% |
| Ari Balinnang |
100% |
105.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
83.7% |
| Riley Holland |
100% |
157.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
30.1% |
| Cali Lederer |
100% |
174.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.8% |
| Sami Pentelow |
100% |
189.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.5% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Lila Van Hoveln |
100% |
3.1 |
4.0 |
14.3 |
30.3 |
25.9 |
15.8 |
7.0 |
1.9 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Shreya Nayee |
100% |
3.8 |
1.5 |
7.7 |
18.7 |
27.9 |
23.6 |
14.2 |
4.6 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Gabby Smith |
100% |
14.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
2.8 |
6.1 |
8.2 |
10.2 |
10.1 |
9.4 |
7.8 |
6.9 |
6.1 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Ari Balinnang |
100% |
19.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.4 |
1.3 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
4.7 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.2 |
6.0 |
6.1 |
6.0 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
5.3 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Riley Holland |
100% |
33.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Cali Lederer |
100% |
40.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Sami Pentelow |
100% |
46.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Lila Van Hoveln |
1.0 |
65.7 |
34.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Shreya Nayee |
1.2 |
34.3 |
65.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Gabby Smith |
2.9 |
|
|
54.3 |
25.8 |
12.5 |
5.4 |
1.9 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ari Balinnang |
4.2 |
|
|
13.5 |
31.0 |
24.7 |
17.7 |
9.9 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Riley Holland |
7.3 |
|
|
0.1 |
1.1 |
6.5 |
12.0 |
21.2 |
26.5 |
17.9 |
8.7 |
4.0 |
1.7 |
0.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cali Lederer |
8.6 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
1.5 |
4.8 |
10.6 |
18.7 |
25.3 |
20.6 |
11.9 |
4.9 |
1.2 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sami Pentelow |
9.7 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
3.3 |
8.8 |
17.4 |
26.1 |
23.3 |
13.6 |
3.9 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
