Pre-tourney Rankings
Pac-12
2013-14


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Arizona 100.0%   1   30 - 4 15 - 3 30 - 4 15 - 3 +20.1      +6.1 37 +14.0 1 64.8 257 +20.9 3 +19.2 1
11 UCLA 100.0%   4   26 - 8 12 - 6 26 - 8 12 - 6 +16.0      +9.6 9 +6.4 36 76.2 26 +14.7 18 +13.2 2
24 Oregon 99.3%   7   23 - 9 10 - 8 23 - 9 10 - 8 +13.5      +9.5 11 +4.0 72 74.9 43 +12.9 30 +10.5 7
33 Utah 33.9%   19 - 11 9 - 9 19 - 11 9 - 9 +11.7      +5.2 51 +6.5 35 64.7 261 +9.9 54 +9.3 9
34 Stanford 87.2%   10   21 - 12 10 - 8 21 - 12 10 - 8 +11.6      +6.3 34 +5.2 55 68.9 148 +11.3 40 +10.7 6
37 Arizona St. 85.2%   10   21 - 11 10 - 8 21 - 11 10 - 8 +10.9      +3.9 77 +7.0 28 73.9 50 +11.5 39 +11.8 3
55 Colorado 92.3%   9   23 - 11 10 - 8 23 - 11 10 - 8 +9.3      +3.1 99 +6.2 41 67.5 181 +12.6 31 +11.2 4
62 California 33.3%   19 - 13 10 - 8 19 - 13 10 - 8 +8.4      +4.3 70 +4.1 66 68.1 167 +9.7 56 +11.2 5
90 Oregon St. 0.0%   16 - 15 8 - 10 16 - 15 8 - 10 +6.0      +5.3 50 +0.7 150 69.6 133 +6.3 79 +8.4 10
91 Washington 0.1%   17 - 15 9 - 9 17 - 15 9 - 9 +5.8      +5.3 49 +0.6 155 72.2 76 +6.6 76 +9.5 8
143 USC 0.0%   10 - 21 2 - 16 10 - 21 2 - 16 +1.8      -0.7 194 +2.5 101 75.8 33 +2.0 136 -1.6 12
158 Washington St. 0.0%   9 - 21 3 - 15 9 - 21 3 - 15 +0.5      -1.2 203 +1.7 122 59.8 337 +0.3 161 0.0 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Arizona 1.0 100.0
UCLA 2.0 100.0
Oregon 3.0 100.0
Utah 8.0 100.0
Stanford 3.0 100.0
Arizona St. 3.0 100.0
Colorado 3.0 100.0
California 3.0 100.0
Oregon St. 10.0 100.0
Washington 8.0 100.0
USC 12.0 100.0
Washington St. 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arizona 15 - 3 100.0
UCLA 12 - 6 100.0
Oregon 10 - 8 100.0
Utah 9 - 9 100.0
Stanford 10 - 8 100.0
Arizona St. 10 - 8 100.0
Colorado 10 - 8 100.0
California 10 - 8 100.0
Oregon St. 8 - 10 100.0
Washington 9 - 9 100.0
USC 2 - 16 100.0
Washington St. 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 100.0% 100.0
UCLA
Oregon
Utah
Stanford
Arizona St.
Colorado
California
Oregon St.
Washington
USC
Washington St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   83.8 16.0 0.2 100.0%
UCLA 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 4   0.1 1.8 19.7 55.4 21.0 1.9 0.1
Oregon 99.3% 0.0% 99.3% 7   0.0 1.4 6.7 28.4 39.4 19.4 3.7 0.2 0.7 99.3%
Utah 33.9% 0.0% 33.9% 0.0 0.1 1.7 19.9 12.1 66.1 33.9%
Stanford 87.2% 0.0% 87.2% 10   0.1 1.7 15.2 29.0 30.8 10.2 0.1 12.8 87.2%
Arizona St. 85.2% 0.0% 85.2% 10   0.0 0.6 8.4 21.1 34.1 20.5 0.4 14.8 85.2%
Colorado 92.3% 0.0% 92.3% 9   0.0 0.6 4.6 22.6 36.2 23.2 5.1 0.0 7.7 92.3%
California 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% 0.1 0.4 3.7 20.3 8.8 66.7 33.3%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Washington 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.1%
USC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.6% 78.4% 55.0% 36.7% 23.5% 14.1%
UCLA 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 83.3% 52.3% 26.0% 13.5% 6.4% 2.7%
Oregon 99.3% 0.0% 99.3% 58.3% 20.9% 9.5% 3.8% 1.5% 0.5%
Utah 33.9% 26.6% 22.3% 10.2% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Stanford 87.2% 1.8% 86.3% 42.7% 13.2% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Arizona St. 85.2% 5.1% 82.7% 37.2% 11.3% 4.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Colorado 92.3% 0.6% 91.9% 37.0% 8.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
California 33.3% 21.2% 21.0% 6.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.3 0.0 1.1 13.0 45.7 33.9 6.3
1st Round 100.0% 6.0 0.0 1.8 19.8 53.3 23.0 2.0
2nd Round 100.0% 3.7 0.0 1.0 10.0 30.1 36.1 18.4 4.0 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 95.7% 1.9 4.3 29.3 42.7 19.8 3.6 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 76.4% 1.0 23.6 51.9 21.7 2.6 0.2 0.0
Final Four 51.0% 0.6 49.0 44.3 6.4 0.3
Final Game 31.2% 0.3 68.8 29.9 1.2
Champion 17.6% 0.2 82.4 17.6