Pre-tourney Rankings
Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.7#4
Expected Predictive Rating+18.9#6
Pace55.9#350
Improvement+2.0#96

Offense
Total Offense+10.8#9
First Shot+9.3#9
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#68
Layup/Dunks+4.1#30
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#148
Freethrows+1.6#69
Improvement-1.6#256

Defense
Total Defense+8.9#8
First Shot+5.6#31
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#1
Layups/Dunks+3.2#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#104
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#247
Freethrows+2.7#35
Improvement+3.6#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 8.3% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 56.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 96.7% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.5 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round97.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen76.9% n/a n/a
Elite Eight51.7% n/a n/a
Final Four31.2% n/a n/a
Championship Game17.9% n/a n/a
National Champion9.7% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 1 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2015 305   Morgan St. W 86-48 99%     1 - 0 +25.6 +20.0 +10.4
  Nov 16, 2015 72   @ George Washington L 68-73 80%     1 - 1 +5.7 +0.6 +4.9
  Nov 19, 2015 314   Bradley W 82-57 99%     2 - 1 +14.7 +18.7 -1.5
  Nov 20, 2015 108   Long Beach St. W 87-52 92%     3 - 1 +39.3 +27.6 +16.1
  Nov 22, 2015 196   George Mason W 83-66 97%     4 - 1 +14.9 +19.3 -2.6
  Nov 25, 2015 193   Lehigh W 80-54 98%     5 - 1 +21.1 +14.0 +10.3
  Dec 01, 2015 69   @ Ohio St. W 64-58 80%     6 - 1 +17.0 +13.3 +5.1
  Dec 05, 2015 92   William & Mary W 67-52 93%     7 - 1 +18.0 -2.8 +21.7
  Dec 08, 2015 6   West Virginia W 70-54 54%     8 - 1 +34.8 +12.6 +23.5
  Dec 19, 2015 5   Villanova W 86-75 64%     9 - 1 +27.0 +31.9 -3.5
  Dec 22, 2015 23   California W 63-62 OT 77%     10 - 1 +12.8 +4.0 +8.9
  Dec 30, 2015 88   Oakland W 71-58 93%     11 - 1 +16.5 -0.4 +17.8
  Jan 02, 2016 36   Notre Dame W 77-66 85%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +19.7 +17.9 +3.8
  Jan 04, 2016 61   @ Virginia Tech L 68-70 77%     12 - 2 1 - 1 +9.8 +7.7 +1.9
  Jan 09, 2016 55   @ Georgia Tech L 64-68 75%     12 - 3 1 - 2 +8.7 +0.6 +7.8
  Jan 12, 2016 14   Miami (FL) W 66-58 73%     13 - 3 2 - 2 +21.2 +10.4 +12.3
  Jan 17, 2016 46   @ Florida St. L 62-69 73%     13 - 4 2 - 3 +6.5 -2.3 +8.4
  Jan 19, 2016 48   Clemson W 69-62 87%     14 - 4 3 - 3 +14.6 +10.1 +5.6
  Jan 24, 2016 38   Syracuse W 73-65 85%     15 - 4 4 - 3 +16.6 +12.2 +5.1
  Jan 26, 2016 111   @ Wake Forest W 72-71 88%     16 - 4 5 - 3 +7.8 +7.5 +0.3
  Jan 30, 2016 11   @ Louisville W 63-47 49%     17 - 4 6 - 3 +35.9 +11.6 +26.6
  Feb 03, 2016 206   Boston College W 61-47 98%     18 - 4 7 - 3 +8.2 -3.7 +13.4
  Feb 06, 2016 34   @ Pittsburgh W 64-50 68%     19 - 4 8 - 3 +28.8 +14.7 +18.0
  Feb 09, 2016 61   Virginia Tech W 67-49 89%     20 - 4 9 - 3 +24.0 +4.0 +21.9
  Feb 13, 2016 17   @ Duke L 62-63 54%     20 - 5 9 - 4 +17.6 +5.6 +11.8
  Feb 15, 2016 74   North Carolina St. W 73-53 91%     21 - 5 10 - 4 +24.7 +10.9 +16.9
  Feb 22, 2016 14   @ Miami (FL) L 61-64 53%     21 - 6 10 - 5 +16.0 +11.5 +3.7
  Feb 27, 2016 3   North Carolina W 79-74 59%     22 - 6 11 - 5 +22.3 +15.3 +7.0
  Mar 01, 2016 48   @ Clemson W 64-57 73%     23 - 6 12 - 5 +20.4 +8.2 +13.5
  Mar 05, 2016 11   Louisville W 68-46 71%     24 - 6 13 - 5 +36.0 +16.7 +23.3
  Mar 10, 2016 55   Georgia Tech W 72-52 83%     25 - 6 +29.7 +17.8 +16.0
  Mar 11, 2016 14   Miami (FL) W 73-68 64%     26 - 6 +21.1 +12.6 +9.0
  Mar 12, 2016 3   North Carolina L 57-61 48%     26 - 7 +16.2 +4.0 +11.4
Projected Record 26.0 - 7.0 13.0 - 5.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.5 56.0 40.7 3.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 56.0 40.7 3.3 0.0 100.0%