Pre-tourney Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.7#17
Expected Predictive Rating+14.7#22
Pace70.2#168
Improvement-4.8#333

Offense
Total Offense+11.8#4
First Shot+9.8#5
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#42
Layup/Dunks+1.2#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#32
Freethrows+3.4#10
Improvement-3.2#305

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#76
First Shot+4.5#52
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#245
Layups/Dunks-2.6#284
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#52
Freethrows+4.8#4
Improvement-1.6#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.1% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 44.4% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 99.1% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 4.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round79.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen44.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight18.9% n/a n/a
Final Four8.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game3.5% n/a n/a
National Champion1.4% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 5 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2015 119   Siena W 92-74 92%     1 - 0 +18.1 +8.1 +8.0
  Nov 14, 2015 343   Bryant W 113-75 99%     2 - 0 +20.6 +26.1 -7.5
  Nov 17, 2015 7   Kentucky L 63-74 40%     2 - 1 +7.1 -2.3 +9.0
  Nov 20, 2015 35   Virginia Commonwealth W 79-71 65%     3 - 1 +19.7 +8.0 +11.2
  Nov 22, 2015 70   Georgetown W 86-84 77%     4 - 1 +10.0 +19.3 -9.2
  Nov 25, 2015 60   Yale W 80-61 82%     5 - 1 +25.1 +15.0 +10.8
  Nov 29, 2015 133   Utah St. W 85-52 93%     6 - 1 +32.3 +8.7 +23.9
  Dec 02, 2015 13   Indiana W 94-74 59%     7 - 1 +33.2 +31.3 +3.4
  Dec 05, 2015 136   Buffalo W 82-59 93%     8 - 1 +22.0 +3.2 +17.2
  Dec 15, 2015 216   Georgia Southern W 99-65 97%     9 - 1 +27.7 +19.1 +7.6
  Dec 19, 2015 26   Utah L 75-77 OT 56%     9 - 2 +12.2 -3.6 +16.1
  Dec 28, 2015 156   Elon W 105-66 94%     10 - 2 +36.5 +18.6 +13.7
  Dec 30, 2015 108   Long Beach St. W 103-81 90%     11 - 2 +23.4 +20.4 +0.7
  Jan 02, 2016 206   @ Boston College W 81-64 92%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +17.0 +8.7 +7.5
  Jan 06, 2016 111   @ Wake Forest W 91-75 80%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +22.8 +20.6 +2.0
  Jan 09, 2016 61   Virginia Tech W 82-58 82%     14 - 2 3 - 0 +30.0 +6.3 +22.1
  Jan 13, 2016 48   @ Clemson L 63-68 59%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +8.4 +1.4 +6.6
  Jan 16, 2016 36   Notre Dame L 91-95 75%     14 - 4 3 - 2 +4.7 +14.5 -9.6
  Jan 18, 2016 38   Syracuse L 62-64 75%     14 - 5 3 - 3 +6.6 +8.6 -2.5
  Jan 23, 2016 74   @ North Carolina St. W 88-78 69%     15 - 5 4 - 3 +20.6 +21.0 -0.1
  Jan 25, 2016 14   @ Miami (FL) L 69-80 37%     15 - 6 4 - 4 +8.0 +10.4 -3.5
  Feb 02, 2016 55   @ Georgia Tech W 80-71 62%     16 - 6 5 - 4 +21.7 +11.7 +9.8
  Feb 06, 2016 74   North Carolina St. W 88-80 85%     17 - 6 6 - 4 +12.7 +14.5 -1.8
  Feb 08, 2016 11   Louisville W 72-65 56%     18 - 6 7 - 4 +21.0 +11.8 +9.5
  Feb 13, 2016 4   Virginia W 63-62 46%     19 - 6 8 - 4 +17.8 +8.8 +9.1
  Feb 17, 2016 3   @ North Carolina W 74-73 24%     20 - 6 9 - 4 +24.1 +12.8 +11.3
  Feb 20, 2016 11   @ Louisville L 64-71 34%     20 - 7 9 - 5 +12.9 +7.8 +4.5
  Feb 25, 2016 46   Florida St. W 80-65 78%     21 - 7 10 - 5 +22.6 +14.8 +8.8
  Feb 28, 2016 34   @ Pittsburgh L 62-76 53%     21 - 8 10 - 6 +0.8 +2.9 -3.9
  Mar 01, 2016 111   Wake Forest W 79-71 91%     22 - 8 11 - 6 +9.0 +1.3 +7.0
  Mar 05, 2016 3   North Carolina L 72-76 44%     22 - 9 11 - 7 +13.3 +2.8 +10.7
  Mar 09, 2016 74   North Carolina St. W 92-89 78%     23 - 9 +10.6 +21.7 -11.0
  Mar 10, 2016 36   Notre Dame L 79-84 OT 65%     23 - 10 +6.6 +1.4 +5.6
Projected Record 23.0 - 10.0 11.0 - 7.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 4.7 0.0 0.1 6.6 37.7 36.6 18.2 0.9 0.0 100.0%
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4.7 0.0 0.1 6.6 37.7 36.6 18.2 0.9 0.0 100.0%