Preseason Rankings
Southern
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
86 UNC Greensboro 38.1%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 14 - 4 +5.7      +1.7 119 +4.0 60 62.7 323 0.0 1 0.0 1
97 Wofford 31.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 13 - 5 +4.6      +4.9 57 -0.3 175 64.5 292 0.0 1 0.0 1
123 Furman 22.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 13 - 5 +3.1      +1.7 118 +1.4 126 70.0 153 0.0 1 0.0 1
153 East Tennessee St. 12.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +0.7      -2.1 232 +2.8 90 67.8 211 0.0 1 0.0 1
265 The Citadel 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 15 8 - 10 -5.9      +0.1 167 -6.0 335 91.5 2 0.0 1 0.0 1
272 Mercer 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -6.0      -1.9 226 -4.1 302 61.3 339 0.0 1 0.0 1
307 Western Carolina 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 12 -8.3      -5.8 320 -2.6 266 72.0 100 0.0 1 0.0 1
310 VMI 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 6 - 12 -8.7      -5.7 318 -2.9 279 69.9 156 0.0 1 0.0 1
314 Chattanooga 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -9.2      -6.1 324 -3.1 282 64.1 305 0.0 1 0.0 1
322 Samford 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 5 - 13 -9.9      -3.4 271 -6.4 341 75.6 44 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
UNC Greensboro 2.2 42.7 24.7 16.0 9.5 3.7 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0
Wofford 2.4 34.2 26.2 18.8 11.0 5.5 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
Furman 2.8 25.0 23.9 21.5 14.5 7.6 3.9 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.2
East Tennessee St. 3.6 13.6 17.5 19.9 20.3 13.3 7.4 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.5
The Citadel 6.1 1.4 3.5 7.5 12.1 16.6 16.1 14.5 12.2 9.6 6.6
Mercer 6.1 1.4 3.9 6.9 11.3 16.1 16.8 14.8 13.0 9.7 6.1
Western Carolina 7.0 0.7 1.4 3.4 7.2 11.4 14.1 16.3 16.4 16.0 13.0
VMI 7.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 6.4 10.4 14.4 15.6 16.4 16.5 15.1
Chattanooga 7.4 0.4 1.0 2.6 5.7 9.7 13.3 15.9 16.9 17.8 16.9
Samford 7.6 0.2 0.9 2.0 4.7 8.1 11.8 15.2 17.1 18.6 21.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Greensboro 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.3 6.8 9.9 12.5 15.0 16.5 14.6 10.4 4.3
Wofford 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.8 5.4 8.8 11.0 14.0 14.8 15.3 12.0 7.5 3.0
Furman 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.7 5.4 8.4 10.5 11.6 14.2 14.1 12.3 9.2 5.0 1.6
East Tennessee St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.1 6.6 9.3 11.4 13.0 12.9 12.2 10.1 7.5 4.4 2.0 0.5
The Citadel 8 - 10 0.3 1.0 2.7 4.9 7.2 9.8 11.6 11.9 12.2 11.1 8.9 7.4 5.0 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mercer 8 - 10 0.2 1.1 2.3 4.7 7.4 10.3 12.2 12.8 11.7 11.4 8.8 7.4 4.2 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 6 - 12 0.8 2.7 5.7 8.9 11.2 13.0 13.6 12.1 9.8 8.5 5.7 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
VMI 6 - 12 0.8 2.9 7.0 9.7 11.6 13.7 12.5 11.6 10.5 7.5 4.6 3.3 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 6 - 12 1.0 3.9 7.2 10.6 12.5 13.7 12.9 11.1 9.6 7.0 4.5 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Samford 5 - 13 1.6 5.3 8.9 11.5 13.6 13.6 12.5 10.7 8.4 5.6 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Greensboro 42.7% 31.3 9.9 1.4 0.1 0.0
Wofford 34.2% 23.8 8.7 1.4 0.1 0.0
Furman 25.0% 16.5 7.1 1.2 0.1 0.0
East Tennessee St. 13.6% 8.3 4.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Mercer 1.4% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Chattanooga 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Samford 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Greensboro 38.1% 35.3% 2.8% 13   0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.9 4.8 8.6 8.4 5.4 3.0 1.1 61.9 4.3%
Wofford 31.4% 28.3% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.7 4.4 7.2 6.1 4.5 2.7 1.0 68.6 4.3%
Furman 22.5% 20.5% 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.5 5.0 5.1 3.7 1.9 0.7 77.5 2.5%
East Tennessee St. 12.0% 11.2% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.1 88.0 0.9%
The Citadel 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 98.4 0.0%
Mercer 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 98.7 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 99.4 0.0%
VMI 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.5 0.0%
Chattanooga 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Samford 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Greensboro 38.1% 1.8% 37.0% 10.7% 3.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 31.4% 1.8% 30.5% 8.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 22.5% 1.2% 21.9% 5.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 12.0% 0.9% 11.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 1.6% 0.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 1.3% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 91.6 8.2 0.2
1st Round 98.6% 1.0 1.4 92.3 6.2 0.1
2nd Round 25.3% 0.3 74.7 24.6 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 7.7% 0.1 92.3 7.6 0.1
Elite Eight 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0 0.0
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0