IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Wofford
Southern
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+4.6	#97
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.5	#292
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.9	#57

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.3	#175

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%
Top 4 Seed	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	1.4%	1.7%	0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid	31.4%	45.7%	28.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	4.3%	14.1%	2.6%
Average Seed	12.0	10.7	12.4

.500 or above	88.8%	97.8%	87.0%
.500 or above in Conference	95.6%	98.8%	95.0%
Conference Champion	34.2%	44.6%	32.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%

First Four	1.8%	3.8%	1.4%
First Round	30.5%	43.7%	27.9%
Second Round	8.1%	16.0%	6.5%
Sweet Sixteen	2.3%	4.8%	1.8%
Elite Eight	0.5%	1.2%	0.4%
Final Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Home) - 16.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.3 - 3.0	0.3 - 3.0
Quad 1b	0.5 - 1.6	0.9 - 4.6
Quad 2	1.4 - 1.7	2.3 - 6.3
Quad 3	3.8 - 1.7	6.1 - 8.0
Quad 4	11.7 - 1.3	17.7 - 9.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	6	North Carolina	L	71-84	17%
Nov 10, 2018	255	@ High Point	W	74-64	74%
Nov 18, 2018	53	@ Oklahoma	L	78-82	24%
Nov 21, 2018	345	Coppin St.	W	78-59	98%
Nov 26, 2018	61	@ South Carolina	L	68-72	26%
Dec 01, 2018	153	East Tennessee St.	W	71-67	73%
Dec 04, 2018	1	@ Kansas	L	67-82	6%
Dec 09, 2018	221	Coastal Carolina	W	75-67	83%
Dec 15, 2018	294	UNC Asheville	W	78-66	90%
Dec 19, 2018	21	@ Mississippi St.	L	67-76	16%
Dec 29, 2018	307	@ Western Carolina	W	78-65	79%
Jan 03, 2019	265	The Citadel	W	90-80	88%
Jan 05, 2019	272	Mercer	W	74-63	88%
Jan 10, 2019	86	@ UNC Greensboro	L	67-68	37%
Jan 12, 2019	310	@ VMI	W	77-64	81%
Jan 19, 2019	123	Furman	W	73-72	65%
Jan 24, 2019	322	Samford	W	84-70	93%
Jan 26, 2019	314	Chattanooga	W	75-61	92%
Jan 31, 2019	272	@ Mercer	W	74-63	74%
Feb 02, 2019	265	@ The Citadel	W	90-80	73%
Feb 07, 2019	153	@ East Tennessee St.	W	71-67	53%
Feb 09, 2019	307	Western Carolina	W	78-65	90%
Feb 14, 2019	310	VMI	W	77-64	91%
Feb 16, 2019	86	UNC Greensboro	L	67-68	56%
Feb 23, 2019	123	@ Furman	W	73-72	44%
Feb 28, 2019	314	@ Chattanooga	W	75-61	81%
Mar 02, 2019	322	@ Samford	W	84-70	82%
Projected Record						17.7 - 9.3	13.4 - 4.6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.9	3.8	8.5	10.3	7.5	3.0		34.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.6	2.3	6.6	8.5	6.5	1.7				26.2	2nd
3rd										0.1	0.7	3.2	6.2	5.8	2.5	0.3					18.8	3rd
4th									0.1	1.0	2.7	4.1	2.4	0.7	0.0						11.0	4th
5th								0.2	0.7	2.0	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.0							5.5	5th
6th							0.0	0.4	0.9	0.7	0.2	0.0									2.3	6th
7th					0.0	0.0	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.1											1.2	7th
8th				0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0												0.6	8th
9th				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0													0.2	9th
10th	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	10th

Total	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.3	2.1	3.8	5.4	8.8	11.0	14.0	14.8	15.3	12.0	7.5	3.0			Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	3.0		3.0
17-1	100.0%	7.5		7.2	0.4
16-2	85.9%	10.3		7.9	2.4	0.0
15-3	55.8%	8.5		4.4	3.5	0.6	0.0
14-4	25.3%	3.8		1.1	2.1	0.5	0.0
13-5	6.1%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0			0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	34.2%	34.2		23.8	8.7	1.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	3.0%		89.8%	73.4%	16.3%	7.9		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0			0.3		61.5%
17-1	7.5%		74.9%	61.6%	13.3%	10.3				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.7	1.5	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.1		1.9		34.7%
16-2	12.0%		56.9%	49.2%	7.7%	11.8						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.5	2.4	1.5	0.5	0.1		5.2		15.1%
15-3	15.3%		39.4%	36.2%	3.2%	12.5									0.0	0.0	0.2	0.8	2.0	1.9	0.9	0.2	0.0	9.3		5.0%
14-4	14.8%		29.1%	28.0%	1.1%	13.2											0.0	0.3	1.1	1.1	1.4	0.5	0.0	10.5		1.6%
13-5	14.0%		19.5%	19.4%	0.1%	13.8												0.1	0.3	0.7	1.0	0.7	0.1	11.3		0.1%
12-6	11.0%		14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	14.4												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.2	9.5		0.0%
11-7	8.8%		10.5%	10.5%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	7.8
10-8	5.4%		7.2%	7.2%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	5.0
9-9	3.8%		3.1%	3.1%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	3.7
8-10	2.1%		3.5%	3.5%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.1	2.0
7-11	1.3%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.3
6-12	0.6%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
5-13	0.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.2
4-14	0.1%																							0.1
3-15	0.0%																							0.0
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		31.4%	28.3%	3.1%	12.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.9	1.0	1.7	4.4	7.2	6.1	4.5	2.7	1.0	68.6		4.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	3.0		50.0		50.0