Preseason Rankings
Austin Peay
Ohio Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#188
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#149
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#139
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#244
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 24.7% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 1.2% 0.2%
Average Seed 14.1 12.8 14.3
.500 or above 67.1% 93.1% 65.8%
.500 or above in Conference 79.1% 93.9% 78.4%
Conference Champion 15.2% 28.9% 14.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.3% 2.2%
First Four1.5% 1.2% 1.5%
First Round10.7% 23.8% 10.0%
Second Round1.1% 3.6% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 4.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.00.0 - 1.0
Quad 1b0.2 - 1.00.2 - 2.1
Quad 20.8 - 2.11.1 - 4.2
Quad 32.9 - 3.63.9 - 7.9
Quad 412.5 - 4.716.5 - 12.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 21   @ Mississippi St. L 66-81 5%    
  Nov 12, 2018 250   @ South Florida W 72-68 54%    
  Nov 16, 2018 313   Central Connecticut St. W 74-66 75%    
  Nov 18, 2018 254   Campbell W 76-72 64%    
  Nov 24, 2018 142   @ Ohio L 75-78 30%    
  Nov 29, 2018 192   @ Troy W 75-74 40%    
  Dec 01, 2018 349   @ Alabama A&M W 78-63 84%    
  Dec 15, 2018 169   Purdue Fort Wayne L 79-80 56%    
  Dec 21, 2018 254   Campbell W 76-72 64%    
  Dec 22, 2018 155   Liberty L 68-70 44%    
  Dec 28, 2018 94   @ Arkansas L 73-79 21%    
  Jan 03, 2019 273   Eastern Kentucky W 77-72 74%    
  Jan 05, 2019 224   Morehead St. W 75-72 68%    
  Jan 10, 2019 308   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 80-73 65%    
  Jan 12, 2019 285   @ Tennessee Martin W 73-68 58%    
  Jan 17, 2019 320   @ SIU Edwardsville W 79-71 67%    
  Jan 19, 2019 298   @ Eastern Illinois W 73-66 61%    
  Jan 24, 2019 259   Tennessee St. W 70-66 74%    
  Jan 26, 2019 109   Belmont L 72-77 44%    
  Jan 31, 2019 287   @ Tennessee Tech W 77-71 58%    
  Feb 02, 2019 146   @ Jacksonville St. L 69-71 33%    
  Feb 07, 2019 320   SIU Edwardsville W 79-71 83%    
  Feb 09, 2019 298   Eastern Illinois W 73-66 78%    
  Feb 14, 2019 151   Murray St. L 71-73 53%    
  Feb 16, 2019 224   @ Morehead St. W 75-72 48%    
  Feb 21, 2019 308   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-73 80%    
  Feb 23, 2019 285   Tennessee Martin W 73-68 76%    
  Feb 28, 2019 273   @ Eastern Kentucky W 77-72 56%    
  Mar 02, 2019 151   @ Murray St. L 71-73 33%    
Projected Record 16.5 - 12.5 11.1 - 6.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 4.4 4.0 2.0 0.6 15.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.8 4.9 2.6 0.7 0.0 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.7 4.1 1.7 0.1 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.5 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 2.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.3 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.5 3.6 5.5 6.9 9.0 10.9 12.2 11.9 11.0 9.7 7.1 4.7 2.1 0.6 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 98.4% 2.0    1.8 0.2
16-2 84.6% 4.0    2.8 1.0 0.1
15-3 61.8% 4.4    2.3 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 30.9% 3.0    1.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.8% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 8.9 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 71.9% 59.4% 12.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 30.8%
17-1 2.1% 53.3% 50.4% 2.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0 5.8%
16-2 4.7% 39.4% 38.5% 0.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.8 1.5%
15-3 7.1% 27.1% 26.9% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 5.2 0.3%
14-4 9.7% 19.7% 19.7% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 7.8
13-5 11.0% 14.2% 14.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 9.4
12-6 11.9% 9.1% 9.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 10.8
11-7 12.2% 6.8% 6.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 11.3
10-8 10.9% 3.2% 3.2% 16.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.5
9-9 9.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.8
8-10 6.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
7-11 5.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.5
6-12 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.6
5-13 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.5% 11.3% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.9 2.9 2.4 88.5 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.3 24.1 25.0 0.9 25.0 25.0