Preseason Rankings
Belmont
Ohio Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#109
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.5#218
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#88
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#150
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.2% 47.0% 31.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.1% 3.9% 0.8%
Average Seed 12.8 12.3 13.4
.500 or above 90.7% 96.0% 85.5%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 96.9% 93.0%
Conference Champion 40.1% 47.7% 32.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.4% 1.6% 1.3%
First Round38.5% 46.3% 31.1%
Second Round8.0% 10.9% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 3.0% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 48.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.00.1 - 1.0
Quad 1b0.3 - 0.90.4 - 1.9
Quad 21.2 - 1.81.6 - 3.8
Quad 33.9 - 2.85.5 - 6.5
Quad 413.5 - 2.519.0 - 9.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 75   Illinois St. L 73-76 49%    
  Nov 12, 2018 157   Middle Tennessee W 71-68 72%    
  Nov 15, 2018 136   @ Lipscomb W 80-79 44%    
  Nov 24, 2018 338   @ Kennesaw St. W 79-63 88%    
  Nov 29, 2018 322   @ Samford W 84-70 82%    
  Dec 01, 2018 235   @ Green Bay W 80-72 67%    
  Dec 04, 2018 136   Lipscomb W 80-79 65%    
  Dec 15, 2018 50   @ UCLA L 74-80 22%    
  Dec 19, 2018 60   Western Kentucky L 73-78 43%    
  Dec 29, 2018 27   @ Purdue L 68-76 16%    
  Jan 03, 2019 146   Jacksonville St. W 70-68 68%    
  Jan 05, 2019 287   Tennessee Tech W 78-67 88%    
  Jan 10, 2019 224   Morehead St. W 76-69 81%    
  Jan 12, 2019 273   Eastern Kentucky W 78-68 85%    
  Jan 17, 2019 146   @ Jacksonville St. W 70-68 48%    
  Jan 19, 2019 259   Tennessee St. W 71-62 85%    
  Jan 24, 2019 151   @ Murray St. W 73-70 49%    
  Jan 26, 2019 188   @ Austin Peay W 77-72 56%    
  Jan 31, 2019 308   Southeast Missouri St. W 81-69 90%    
  Feb 02, 2019 285   Tennessee Martin W 74-64 86%    
  Feb 07, 2019 273   @ Eastern Kentucky W 78-68 72%    
  Feb 09, 2019 224   @ Morehead St. W 76-69 65%    
  Feb 14, 2019 259   @ Tennessee St. W 71-62 70%    
  Feb 16, 2019 287   @ Tennessee Tech W 78-67 73%    
  Feb 21, 2019 298   Eastern Illinois W 74-63 88%    
  Feb 23, 2019 320   SIU Edwardsville W 80-67 91%    
  Feb 28, 2019 285   @ Tennessee Martin W 74-64 72%    
  Mar 02, 2019 308   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 81-69 78%    
Projected Record 19.0 - 9.0 13.5 - 4.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.4 9.6 10.5 8.9 3.8 40.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.7 7.3 5.0 1.5 0.1 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.9 4.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.3 1.9 3.8 3.1 0.7 0.1 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 2.5 3.8 5.6 7.9 10.9 12.6 14.5 14.9 11.9 9.0 3.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.8    3.8
17-1 98.5% 8.9    8.2 0.7
16-2 87.6% 10.5    8.3 2.0 0.1
15-3 64.7% 9.6    5.7 3.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 37.2% 5.4    2.2 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.1% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.1% 40.1 28.6 9.1 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.8% 89.0% 80.1% 9.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.4 44.9%
17-1 9.0% 77.0% 71.6% 5.4% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.1 19.0%
16-2 11.9% 63.1% 60.4% 2.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.6 2.3 1.1 0.3 4.4 6.7%
15-3 14.9% 48.9% 47.8% 1.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.0 7.6 2.1%
14-4 14.5% 39.1% 39.1% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.1 8.8 0.0%
13-5 12.6% 30.5% 30.5% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.3 0.3 8.7 0.0%
12-6 10.9% 21.7% 21.7% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 8.5
11-7 7.9% 14.5% 14.5% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 6.8
10-8 5.6% 10.1% 10.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.0
9-9 3.8% 6.6% 6.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.5
8-10 2.5% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.4
7-11 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 39.2% 37.9% 1.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.3 3.4 7.7 9.1 7.5 5.5 2.0 60.8 2.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.2 18.6 3.2 21.8 21.2 1.9 33.3