Preseason Rankings
Drake
Missouri Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#202
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.7#189
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#184
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#232
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 6.1% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 2.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.8 11.4 13.7
.500 or above 21.0% 43.9% 17.0%
.500 or above in Conference 23.2% 38.7% 20.5%
Conference Champion 1.8% 4.0% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 29.7% 17.5% 31.7%
First Four0.4% 1.5% 0.2%
First Round2.2% 5.4% 1.6%
Second Round0.4% 1.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 14.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.90.0 - 0.9
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.50.2 - 2.4
Quad 20.8 - 4.21.0 - 6.7
Quad 33.8 - 7.94.7 - 14.5
Quad 46.1 - 3.710.8 - 18.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 84   @ Colorado L 67-75 15%    
  Nov 17, 2018 203   Texas St. W 66-65 61%    
  Nov 21, 2018 279   @ UMKC W 75-71 53%    
  Nov 27, 2018 95   Boise St. L 68-75 35%    
  Dec 01, 2018 199   North Dakota St. L 70-71 49%    
  Dec 06, 2018 261   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 69-66 52%    
  Dec 15, 2018 30   Iowa St. L 68-82 12%    
  Dec 17, 2018 320   SIU Edwardsville W 77-70 82%    
  Dec 19, 2018 110   Rider L 76-82 40%    
  Dec 22, 2018 93   New Mexico St. L 67-74 27%    
  Dec 23, 2018 121   San Diego L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 02, 2019 196   @ Evansville L 65-66 40%    
  Jan 05, 2019 67   Loyola Chicago L 64-74 28%    
  Jan 08, 2019 104   Southern Illinois L 67-73 39%    
  Jan 13, 2019 116   @ Northern Iowa L 62-68 24%    
  Jan 16, 2019 117   @ Bradley L 66-72 23%    
  Jan 20, 2019 190   Missouri St. L 69-70 56%    
  Jan 23, 2019 196   Evansville L 65-66 59%    
  Jan 26, 2019 120   @ Valparaiso L 69-74 25%    
  Jan 30, 2019 75   Illinois St. L 69-78 31%    
  Feb 02, 2019 161   @ Indiana St. L 71-74 32%    
  Feb 05, 2019 67   @ Loyola Chicago L 64-74 14%    
  Feb 09, 2019 116   Northern Iowa L 62-68 41%    
  Feb 12, 2019 104   @ Southern Illinois L 67-73 22%    
  Feb 16, 2019 120   Valparaiso L 69-74 42%    
  Feb 19, 2019 117   Bradley L 66-72 42%    
  Feb 24, 2019 75   @ Illinois St. L 69-78 16%    
  Feb 27, 2019 161   Indiana St. L 71-74 51%    
  Mar 02, 2019 190   @ Missouri St. L 69-70 37%    
Projected Record 10.8 - 18.2 6.2 - 11.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.4 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.4 5.2 2.4 0.2 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.8 5.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 15.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.4 6.3 5.4 1.8 0.3 18.2 9th
10th 1.2 3.5 5.7 5.5 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 20.7 10th
Total 1.2 3.6 6.7 9.1 11.8 12.3 11.6 11.0 9.7 7.8 5.8 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 81.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 84.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 52.2% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 30.9% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 67.5% 32.5% 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.0% 92.2% 4.7% 87.5% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.8%
16-2 0.2% 41.8% 26.3% 15.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 21.0%
15-3 0.5% 48.0% 26.7% 21.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 29.0%
14-4 0.9% 18.9% 10.4% 8.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 9.5%
13-5 1.5% 28.5% 20.0% 8.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 10.5%
12-6 2.5% 10.5% 9.9% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.7%
11-7 4.0% 6.1% 5.8% 0.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7 0.4%
10-8 5.8% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.5 0.0%
9-9 7.8% 2.2% 2.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.6
8-10 9.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.5
7-11 11.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.8
6-12 11.6% 0.8% 0.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.5
5-13 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 12.3
4-14 11.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.8
3-15 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.1
2-16 6.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.6
1-17 3.6% 3.6
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 2.4% 2.0% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 97.6 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 100.0
Lose Out 0.1%