Preseason Rankings
Evansville
Missouri Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#196
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.5#295
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#308
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#77
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 5.9% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.8 13.0 14.2
.500 or above 20.8% 43.3% 17.3%
.500 or above in Conference 23.9% 39.3% 21.5%
Conference Champion 1.8% 4.3% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 28.1% 16.9% 29.9%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round2.5% 5.6% 2.0%
Second Round0.4% 1.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Away) - 13.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.70.0 - 0.7
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.70.2 - 2.5
Quad 20.9 - 4.71.1 - 7.2
Quad 33.9 - 7.65.0 - 14.8
Quad 45.8 - 3.310.8 - 18.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 76   @ Illinois L 64-73 14%    
  Nov 10, 2018 44   @ Xavier L 63-75 8%    
  Nov 18, 2018 243   Texas Southern W 71-68 69%    
  Nov 24, 2018 111   @ Ball St. L 64-70 23%    
  Nov 28, 2018 173   Wyoming L 69-70 56%    
  Dec 04, 2018 286   @ Arkansas St. W 70-65 56%    
  Dec 09, 2018 111   Ball St. L 64-70 40%    
  Dec 15, 2018 146   Jacksonville St. L 61-64 49%    
  Dec 18, 2018 151   @ Murray St. L 63-66 30%    
  Dec 22, 2018 235   Green Bay W 70-68 68%    
  Dec 30, 2018 170   @ Miami (OH) L 62-64 35%    
  Jan 02, 2019 202   Drake W 66-65 60%    
  Jan 05, 2019 75   @ Illinois St. L 63-72 16%    
  Jan 08, 2019 67   Loyola Chicago L 57-67 28%    
  Jan 12, 2019 161   Indiana St. L 64-66 52%    
  Jan 16, 2019 190   @ Missouri St. L 62-63 38%    
  Jan 19, 2019 75   Illinois St. L 63-72 30%    
  Jan 23, 2019 202   @ Drake W 66-65 41%    
  Jan 26, 2019 116   @ Northern Iowa L 57-62 23%    
  Jan 30, 2019 117   Bradley L 60-65 42%    
  Feb 02, 2019 120   Valparaiso L 63-68 43%    
  Feb 06, 2019 161   @ Indiana St. L 64-66 33%    
  Feb 09, 2019 104   @ Southern Illinois L 61-67 22%    
  Feb 13, 2019 190   Missouri St. L 62-63 58%    
  Feb 17, 2019 116   Northern Iowa L 57-62 43%    
  Feb 20, 2019 67   @ Loyola Chicago L 57-67 14%    
  Feb 23, 2019 117   @ Bradley L 60-65 25%    
  Feb 27, 2019 104   Southern Illinois L 61-67 39%    
  Mar 02, 2019 120   @ Valparaiso L 63-68 26%    
Projected Record 10.8 - 18.2 6.3 - 11.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.3 1.3 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.7 5.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.7 5.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 15.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.3 6.4 5.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 17.9 9th
10th 1.3 3.0 5.3 5.1 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 19.6 10th
Total 1.3 3.0 6.2 8.5 11.5 11.9 12.0 11.9 9.8 7.5 5.7 4.3 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 99.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 80.4% 0.4    0.3 0.0
14-4 53.3% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 24.8% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 32.0% 28.7% 3.3% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6%
16-2 0.1% 24.1% 12.4% 11.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.4%
15-3 0.4% 36.6% 14.6% 22.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 25.8%
14-4 1.0% 42.9% 33.2% 9.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 14.6%
13-5 1.9% 14.0% 11.7% 2.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6 2.6%
12-6 2.9% 7.9% 7.4% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7 0.5%
11-7 4.3% 7.0% 6.6% 0.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0 0.4%
10-8 5.7% 6.8% 6.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.3
9-9 7.5% 3.0% 3.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.3
8-10 9.8% 2.5% 2.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.5
7-11 11.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.7 0.1 0.2 11.7
6-12 12.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.8
5-13 11.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.8
4-14 11.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.5
3-15 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.5
2-16 6.2% 6.2
1-17 3.0% 3.0
0-18 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 2.8% 2.5% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 97.2 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%