IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Colorado
Pac-12
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.9	#84
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.8	#186
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.3	#107

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.7	#64

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.3%	2.1%	0.4%
Top 4 Seed	1.8%	2.1%	0.4%
Top 6 Seed	4.3%	2.1%	0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid	19.4%	21.5%	7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	15.1%	17.0%	4.5%
Average Seed	9.0	8.9	10.5

.500 or above	72.2%	76.0%	49.6%
.500 or above in Conference	49.1%	51.9%	33.1%
Conference Champion	5.2%	5.8%	2.0%
Last Place in Conference	6.9%	6.0%	12.3%

First Four	4.6%	4.9%	2.5%
First Round	17.1%	19.1%	5.8%
Second Round	8.3%	9.4%	2.0%
Sweet Sixteen	3.1%	3.5%	0.7%
Elite Eight	1.1%	1.3%	0.3%
Final Four	0.5%	0.6%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 85.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.2 - 1.6	0.2 - 1.6
Quad 1b	0.7 - 2.3	0.9 - 3.9
Quad 2	2.8 - 4.2	3.8 - 8.0
Quad 3	6.4 - 3.6	10.2 - 11.6
Quad 4	7.1 - 1.1	17.3 - 12.7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 13, 2018	202	Drake	W	75-67	85%
Nov 16, 2018	253	Nebraska Omaha	W	80-69	90%
Nov 20, 2018	121	@ San Diego	W	70-67	49%
Nov 24, 2018	212	@ Air Force	W	73-64	70%
Nov 28, 2018	241	Portland	W	75-65	88%
Dec 01, 2018	180	Colorado St.	W	76-69	81%
Dec 04, 2018	134	South Dakota	W	74-70	72%
Dec 08, 2018	181	Illinois-Chicago	W	77-70	80%
Dec 11, 2018	92	@ New Mexico	W	77-76	42%
Dec 22, 2018	161	Indiana St.	W	74-68	69%
Dec 23, 2018	201	@ Hawaii	W	73-65	67%
Dec 25, 2018	301	Charlotte	W	82-68	88%
Jan 03, 2019	66	@ Arizona	L	71-73	33%
Jan 05, 2019	43	@ Arizona St.	L	75-79	27%
Jan 10, 2019	191	Washington St.	W	77-70	81%
Jan 12, 2019	42	Washington	L	71-75	46%
Jan 20, 2019	87	@ Utah	W	68-67	41%
Jan 24, 2019	198	@ California	W	74-66	67%
Jan 26, 2019	108	@ Stanford	W	73-71	46%
Jan 31, 2019	82	Oregon St.	L	68-69	60%
Feb 02, 2019	17	Oregon	L	67-75	35%
Feb 06, 2019	50	@ UCLA	L	74-78	29%
Feb 09, 2019	58	@ USC	L	70-73	31%
Feb 13, 2019	43	Arizona St.	L	75-79	45%
Feb 17, 2019	66	Arizona	L	71-73	53%
Feb 20, 2019	191	@ Washington St.	W	77-70	64%
Feb 23, 2019	42	@ Washington	L	71-75	28%
Mar 02, 2019	87	Utah	W	68-67	61%
Mar 07, 2019	50	UCLA	L	74-78	47%
Mar 09, 2019	58	USC	L	70-73	51%
Projected Record						17.3 - 12.7	8.5 - 9.5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Pac-12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.7	1.6	1.4	1.0	0.4	0.1		5.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.7	2.5	1.6	0.4	0.1	0.0			6.6	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	2.0	3.5	1.5	0.3	0.0					7.6	3rd
4th										0.3	2.1	4.1	2.0	0.2	0.0						8.6	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	2.0	4.5	2.1	0.3								9.2	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	2.0	4.6	2.6	0.4									9.7	6th
7th							0.2	2.0	4.8	3.4	0.5	0.0									10.9	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	2.0	4.7	3.6	0.5	0.0										11.1	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	2.0	4.1	3.4	0.7	0.0											10.5	9th
10th			0.1	0.4	2.1	3.5	2.6	0.4	0.1												9.2	10th
11th		0.0	0.8	2.0	2.6	1.5	0.4	0.0													7.3	11th
12th	0.2	0.6	1.3	1.3	0.5	0.1															4.0	12th

Total	0.2	0.7	2.1	3.7	5.6	7.3	9.4	10.7	11.3	10.9	10.0	8.9	7.5	5.0	3.5	1.9	1.1	0.4	0.1			Total

Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	99.9%	0.4		0.3	0.0
16-2	89.7%	1.0		0.8	0.2	0.0
15-3	76.0%	1.4		0.9	0.5	0.0	0.0
14-4	45.2%	1.6		0.7	0.7	0.2	0.0
13-5	14.6%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	5.2%	5.2		2.9	1.7	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		100.0%	28.7%	71.3%	2.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															100.0%
17-1	0.4%		96.3%	25.4%	71.0%	3.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0										0.0		95.1%
16-2	1.1%		98.7%	31.4%	67.3%	4.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		98.1%
15-3	1.9%		94.0%	19.6%	74.4%	5.9		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.1		92.5%
14-4	3.5%		90.6%	15.0%	75.5%	7.5			0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.3		88.9%
13-5	5.0%		70.1%	12.1%	58.0%	9.0				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.0				1.5		66.0%
12-6	7.5%		51.2%	9.1%	42.2%	9.8					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.0	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0			3.7		46.4%
11-7	8.9%		31.8%	8.4%	23.4%	10.8							0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0		6.1		25.5%
10-8	10.0%		13.5%	4.5%	9.0%	11.4									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0		8.6		9.5%
9-9	10.9%		5.9%	3.8%	2.2%	12.1								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	10.3		2.2%
8-10	11.3%		2.7%	2.1%	0.6%	12.8											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	10.9		0.6%
7-11	10.7%		2.1%	2.1%		13.5												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	10.5
6-12	9.4%		2.0%	2.0%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	9.2
5-13	7.3%		0.7%	0.7%		14.8															0.0	0.0	0.0	7.2
4-14	5.6%		0.7%	0.7%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.0	5.5
3-15	3.7%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																0.0	0.0	3.7
2-16	2.1%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	2.1
1-17	0.7%																							0.7
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		19.4%	5.0%	14.4%	9.0		0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.2	1.2	1.4	1.5	1.9	2.8	4.1	2.1	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.2	80.6		15.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	1.9	17.9	76.9	5.1