Montana
Big Sky
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#111
Achievement Rating+2.4#144
Pace67.7#242
Improvement-3.0#335

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#92
First Shot+2.1#119
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#90
Layup/Dunks+6.1#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#349
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#218
Freethrows+2.1#71
Improvement-1.9#316

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#134
First Shot+3.0#79
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#295
Layups/Dunks+1.6#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#12
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#104
Freethrows-4.8#341
Improvement-1.1#266
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.4% 39.9% 31.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.9
.500 or above 96.5% 97.8% 90.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.4% 96.0%
Conference Champion 53.7% 55.9% 43.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round38.1% 39.6% 30.8%
Second Round6.8% 7.4% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.0% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 107   Georgia St. W 81-74 61%     1 - 0 +8.6 +2.8 +5.3
  Nov 16, 2018 339   Incarnate Word W 93-66 94%     2 - 0 +14.0 +18.2 -2.3
  Nov 17, 2018 151   Miami (OH) W 73-71 64%     3 - 0 +2.7 +2.4 +0.4
  Nov 18, 2018 130   Georgia Southern L 77-80 56%     3 - 1 -0.2 -1.2 +1.2
  Nov 28, 2018 41   @ Creighton L 72-98 19%     3 - 2 -12.4 +5.0 -18.6
  Dec 08, 2018 97   @ UC Irvine L 51-60 35%     3 - 3 -0.7 -7.5 +5.5
  Dec 17, 2018 204   North Dakota St. W 78-68 83%    
  Dec 19, 2018 40   @ Arizona L 67-76 19%    
  Dec 22, 2018 82   @ South Dakota St. L 75-80 32%    
  Dec 29, 2018 318   @ Northern Arizona W 81-70 85%    
  Dec 31, 2018 253   @ Southern Utah W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 03, 2019 228   Sacramento St. W 78-66 85%    
  Jan 05, 2019 234   Portland St. W 84-72 86%    
  Jan 10, 2019 246   @ Eastern Washington W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 12, 2019 137   @ Northern Colorado L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 19, 2019 286   @ Idaho W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 24, 2019 244   Idaho St. W 81-69 86%    
  Jan 26, 2019 154   Weber St. W 80-73 74%    
  Feb 02, 2019 297   @ Montana St. W 81-72 79%    
  Feb 07, 2019 286   Idaho W 78-64 90%    
  Feb 09, 2019 246   Eastern Washington W 78-65 87%    
  Feb 14, 2019 154   @ Weber St. W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 16, 2019 244   @ Idaho St. W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 23, 2019 297   Montana St. W 84-69 91%    
  Feb 25, 2019 137   Northern Colorado W 79-74 68%    
  Mar 02, 2019 253   Southern Utah W 82-69 87%    
  Mar 04, 2019 318   Northern Arizona W 84-67 93%    
  Mar 07, 2019 234   @ Portland St. W 81-75 70%    
  Mar 09, 2019 228   @ Sacramento St. W 75-69 68%    
Projected Record 19.8 - 9.2 15.4 - 4.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.6 10.7 13.6 12.0 7.2 2.5 53.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.8 7.2 4.9 1.9 0.3 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.9 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.6 8.2 11.3 14.2 15.8 15.5 12.3 7.2 2.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
19-1 100.0% 7.2    7.1 0.1
18-2 97.4% 12.0    11.2 0.8 0.0
17-3 87.5% 13.6    11.2 2.4 0.1
16-4 67.4% 10.7    7.1 3.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 39.4% 5.6    2.7 2.3 0.6 0.0
14-6 16.7% 1.9    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 53.7% 53.7 42.3 9.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.5% 72.2% 67.3% 4.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.7 14.9%
19-1 7.2% 62.5% 60.0% 2.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.7 6.2%
18-2 12.3% 53.9% 52.9% 1.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.7 0.8 0.0 5.7 2.0%
17-3 15.5% 47.5% 47.3% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.2 0.5%
16-4 15.8% 40.2% 40.1% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.5 0.1%
15-5 14.2% 34.3% 34.3% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.1 0.1 9.3 0.0%
14-6 11.3% 28.5% 28.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.1 8.1
13-7 8.2% 23.2% 23.2% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 6.3
12-8 5.6% 17.8% 17.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 4.6
11-9 3.4% 14.0% 14.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.9
10-10 2.0% 9.8% 9.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.8
9-11 1.1% 6.3% 6.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.0
8-12 0.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.4% 37.9% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.3 7.5 11.2 10.5 5.4 0.9 61.6 0.7%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 9.8 0.3 0.3 2.4 3.1 5.4 10.8 7.1 24.4 35.6 10.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 42.0% 10.5 6.0 16.0 10.0 8.0 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 34.1% 10.6 2.4 4.9 4.9 14.6 7.3