Montana
Big Sky
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#108
Achievement Rating+6.1#89
Pace68.7#188
Improvement+0.1#183

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#93
First Shot+3.8#61
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#225
Layup/Dunks+3.5#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#151
Freethrows+1.1#108
Improvement+0.5#161

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#137
First Shot-0.8#196
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#19
Layups/Dunks-0.6#201
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#41
Freethrows-3.5#339
Improvement-0.4#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.2% 50.0% 45.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 93.1% 95.1% 83.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round49.2% 50.0% 45.4%
Second Round6.1% 6.5% 4.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 82.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 130   Georgia St. W 81-74 66%     1 - 0 +7.1 +2.7 +3.9
  Nov 16, 2018 337   Incarnate Word W 93-66 94%     2 - 0 +14.0 +17.2 -1.5
  Nov 17, 2018 138   Miami (OH) W 73-71 58%     3 - 0 +4.2 +5.4 -1.0
  Nov 18, 2018 127   Georgia Southern L 77-80 55%     3 - 1 +0.1 -0.3 +0.5
  Nov 28, 2018 44   @ Creighton L 72-98 22%     3 - 2 -13.6 +6.8 -21.7
  Dec 08, 2018 109   @ UC Irvine L 51-60 40%     3 - 3 -2.0 -8.0 +4.6
  Dec 17, 2018 196   North Dakota St. W 60-53 80%     4 - 3 +2.2 -6.0 +9.6
  Dec 19, 2018 81   @ Arizona L 42-61 33%     4 - 4 -10.1 -24.3 +13.7
  Dec 22, 2018 77   @ South Dakota St. W 85-74 32%     5 - 4 +20.1 +15.0 +5.2
  Dec 29, 2018 312   @ Northern Arizona W 86-73 84%     6 - 4 1 - 0 +6.4 +6.3 -0.2
  Dec 31, 2018 280   @ Southern Utah W 89-76 78%     7 - 4 2 - 0 +9.0 +6.7 +1.0
  Jan 03, 2019 245   Sacramento St. W 87-56 87%     8 - 4 3 - 0 +23.3 +7.4 +14.2
  Jan 05, 2019 291   Portland St. L 74-77 90%     8 - 5 3 - 1 -13.0 -7.3 -5.6
  Jan 10, 2019 256   @ Eastern Washington L 71-78 75%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -9.8 -2.2 -7.7
  Jan 12, 2019 178   @ Northern Colorado W 88-64 59%     9 - 6 4 - 2 +25.9 +16.7 +9.2
  Jan 19, 2019 344   @ Idaho W 69-51 92%     10 - 6 5 - 2 +6.4 -1.1 +10.2
  Jan 24, 2019 310   Idaho St. W 80-69 92%     11 - 6 6 - 2 -0.5 -1.8 +1.3
  Jan 26, 2019 171   Weber St. W 75-68 76%     12 - 6 7 - 2 +3.8 -1.8 +5.3
  Feb 02, 2019 223   @ Montana St. W 83-78 69%     13 - 6 8 - 2 +4.0 +5.8 -1.9
  Feb 07, 2019 344   Idaho W 100-59 96%     14 - 6 9 - 2 +24.0 +20.1 +5.2
  Feb 09, 2019 256   Eastern Washington W 75-74 88%     15 - 6 10 - 2 -7.2 -0.3 -6.8
  Feb 14, 2019 171   @ Weber St. W 83-80 58%     16 - 6 11 - 2 +5.2 +5.8 -0.8
  Feb 16, 2019 310   @ Idaho St. W 79-69 83%    
  Feb 23, 2019 223   Montana St. W 83-72 85%    
  Feb 25, 2019 178   Northern Colorado W 75-67 78%    
  Mar 02, 2019 280   Southern Utah W 81-67 90%    
  Mar 04, 2019 312   Northern Arizona W 83-67 94%    
  Mar 07, 2019 291   @ Portland St. W 81-72 79%    
  Mar 09, 2019 245   @ Sacramento St. W 74-67 72%    
Projected Record 21.8 - 7.2 16.8 - 3.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 5.4 21.2 37.4 28.7 93.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 1.5 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 8.7 22.7 37.4 28.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 28.7    28.7
17-3 100.0% 37.4    36.0 1.4
16-4 93.2% 21.2    15.8 5.4
15-5 61.5% 5.4    2.0 3.0 0.3
14-6 23.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 93.1% 93.1 82.6 10.0 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 28.7% 55.2% 55.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.2 7.4 1.3 0.0 12.9
17-3 37.4% 50.1% 50.1% 13.6 0.0 0.5 7.2 10.0 1.0 18.7
16-4 22.7% 45.3% 45.3% 14.1 0.0 1.2 6.5 2.6 0.0 12.4
15-5 8.7% 41.4% 41.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 1.8 1.7 0.0 5.1
14-6 2.1% 30.9% 30.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.5
13-7 0.3% 29.5% 29.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 49.2% 49.2% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.7 16.0 19.8 5.7 0.1 50.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.8% 100.0% 12.6 0.0 0.2 5.8 38.9 46.7 8.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.8%