Michigan
Big Ten
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#8
Achievement Rating+21.6#8
Pace63.3#318
Improvement-3.9#320

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#36
First Shot+5.9#34
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#172
Layup/Dunks+4.5#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#109
Freethrows+0.2#169
Improvement-1.9#267

Defense
Total Defense+11.5#3
First Shot+9.8#6
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#41
Layups/Dunks-0.8#208
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#5
Freethrows+5.1#1
Improvement-2.0#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 16.0% 20.5% 6.8%
Top 4 Seed 98.4% 99.5% 96.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.3 2.1 2.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 29.9% 37.9% 13.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round94.0% 94.9% 92.2%
Sweet Sixteen64.4% 66.0% 61.0%
Elite Eight35.7% 37.8% 31.2%
Final Four15.7% 17.1% 12.9%
Championship Game6.4% 7.1% 5.1%
National Champion2.4% 2.7% 1.8%

Next Game: Minnesota (Away) - 67.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 261   Norfolk St. W 63-44 98%     1 - 0 +10.5 -9.7 +21.1
  Nov 10, 2018 234   Holy Cross W 56-37 98%     2 - 0 +11.8 -14.6 +28.4
  Nov 14, 2018 19   @ Villanova W 73-46 49%     3 - 0 +44.8 +12.7 +34.6
  Nov 17, 2018 256   George Washington W 84-61 97%     4 - 0 +17.5 +11.4 +6.2
  Nov 18, 2018 80   Providence W 66-47 85%     5 - 0 +25.2 +5.8 +21.4
  Nov 23, 2018 292   Chattanooga W 83-55 99%     6 - 0 +17.9 +7.4 +11.8
  Nov 28, 2018 6   North Carolina W 84-67 52%     7 - 0 +33.9 +18.3 +15.7
  Dec 01, 2018 10   Purdue W 76-57 64%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +32.8 +16.4 +18.9
  Dec 04, 2018 63   @ Northwestern W 62-60 76%     9 - 0 2 - 0 +12.1 +6.6 +5.8
  Dec 08, 2018 74   South Carolina W 89-78 89%     10 - 0 +14.9 +16.0 -1.3
  Dec 15, 2018 263   Western Michigan W 70-62 98%     11 - 0 -0.6 -4.2 +3.9
  Dec 22, 2018 239   Air Force W 71-50 98%     12 - 0 +13.6 +2.5 +13.3
  Dec 30, 2018 336   Binghamton W 74-52 99%     13 - 0 +6.8 +2.4 +6.7
  Jan 03, 2019 57   Penn St. W 68-55 87%     14 - 0 3 - 0 +18.3 -1.9 +19.9
  Jan 06, 2019 45   Indiana W 74-63 84%     15 - 0 4 - 0 +17.8 +19.9 -0.1
  Jan 10, 2019 56   @ Illinois W 79-69 73%     16 - 0 5 - 0 +21.0 +7.0 +13.3
  Jan 13, 2019 63   Northwestern W 80-60 88%     17 - 0 6 - 0 +24.6 +20.1 +6.3
  Jan 19, 2019 15   @ Wisconsin L 54-64 47%     17 - 1 6 - 1 +8.3 -4.0 +11.7
  Jan 22, 2019 43   Minnesota W 59-57 84%     18 - 1 7 - 1 +9.0 -5.3 +14.5
  Jan 25, 2019 45   @ Indiana W 69-46 69%     19 - 1 8 - 1 +35.3 +7.4 +29.3
  Jan 29, 2019 41   Ohio St. W 65-49 81%     20 - 1 9 - 1 +24.0 +6.4 +19.7
  Feb 01, 2019 26   @ Iowa L 59-74 57%     20 - 2 9 - 2 +0.7 -12.4 +13.7
  Feb 05, 2019 90   @ Rutgers W 77-65 81%     21 - 2 10 - 2 +20.3 +15.7 +5.3
  Feb 09, 2019 15   Wisconsin W 61-52 68%     22 - 2 11 - 2 +21.7 +7.8 +15.5
  Feb 12, 2019 57   @ Penn St. L 69-75 74%     22 - 3 11 - 3 +4.8 +7.2 -2.7
  Feb 16, 2019 21   Maryland W 65-52 71%     23 - 3 12 - 3 +24.8 +4.4 +21.6
  Feb 21, 2019 43   @ Minnesota W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 24, 2019 4   Michigan St. W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 28, 2019 35   Nebraska W 68-59 80%    
  Mar 03, 2019 21   @ Maryland W 65-64 50%    
  Mar 09, 2019 4   @ Michigan St. L 63-69 30%    
Projected Record 25.8 - 5.2 14.8 - 5.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 6.5 18.1 5.2 29.9 1st
2nd 0.2 5.3 17.4 2.9 25.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 15.8 10.3 28.2 3rd
4th 0.2 5.1 5.6 10.9 4th
5th 0.9 3.2 0.4 4.6 5th
6th 0.4 0.2 0.6 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.6 10.7 27.3 34.2 21.0 5.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 5.2    4.5 0.7
16-4 86.0% 18.1    6.9 8.5 2.7
15-5 19.1% 6.5    0.5 2.4 2.8 0.8 0.1
14-6 0.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 29.9% 29.9 11.8 11.6 5.5 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 5.2% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 1.3 3.9 1.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 21.0% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 1.7 8.2 11.6 1.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 34.2% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 2.2 3.5 22.2 7.9 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-6 27.3% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 2.6 0.5 11.9 12.0 2.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.7% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 3.2 0.0 1.8 5.1 3.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 1.6% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 4.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 2.3 16.0 48.8 26.5 7.0 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 1.0 99.2 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1% 100.0% 1.3 73.4 26.1 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6% 100.0% 1.4 62.9 36.1 1.0
Lose Out 0.4% 100.0% 5.7 0.3 8.0 34.3 40.7 15.7 1.1