Michigan
Big Ten
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.0#3
Achievement Rating+28.3#3
Pace61.5#343
Improvement-0.7#228

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#20
First Shot+7.6#18
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#136
Layup/Dunks+3.7#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#82
Freethrows+0.3#153
Improvement+3.0#10

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#1
First Shot+8.4#11
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#35
Layups/Dunks-1.4#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#12
Freethrows+7.3#2
Improvement-3.6#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 48.7% 48.8% 28.7%
Top 4 Seed 90.8% 90.9% 77.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.5% 99.5% 97.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.3% 99.3% 97.2%
Average Seed 2.1 2.1 3.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 98.4% 95.6%
Conference Champion 46.2% 46.3% 33.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.8%
First Round99.4% 99.4% 97.7%
Second Round92.8% 92.9% 85.8%
Sweet Sixteen67.9% 68.0% 54.9%
Elite Eight44.2% 44.3% 31.7%
Final Four25.6% 25.6% 15.6%
Championship Game13.8% 13.8% 7.2%
National Champion7.1% 7.1% 3.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 277   Norfolk St. W 63-44 99%     1 - 0 +9.5 -10.0 +20.5
  Nov 10, 2018 157   Holy Cross W 56-37 97%     2 - 0 +16.4 -11.3 +29.8
  Nov 14, 2018 21   @ Villanova W 73-46 60%     3 - 0 +43.3 +13.1 +32.7
  Nov 17, 2018 279   George Washington W 84-61 98%     4 - 0 +16.4 +9.2 +7.4
  Nov 18, 2018 72   Providence W 66-47 87%     5 - 0 +26.0 +3.3 +24.6
  Nov 23, 2018 321   Chattanooga W 83-55 99%     6 - 0 +14.7 +10.4 +5.7
  Nov 28, 2018 8   North Carolina W 84-67 65%     7 - 0 +32.1 +15.7 +16.5
  Dec 01, 2018 19   Purdue W 76-57 78%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +29.8 +16.7 +15.6
  Dec 04, 2018 48   @ Northwestern W 62-60 73%     9 - 0 2 - 0 +14.7 +5.3 +9.7
  Dec 08, 2018 117   South Carolina W 89-78 94%     10 - 0 +11.8 +17.2 -5.6
  Dec 15, 2018 223   Western Michigan W 79-53 99%    
  Dec 22, 2018 230   Air Force W 77-51 99%    
  Dec 30, 2018 325   Binghamton W 81-48 99.9%   
  Jan 03, 2019 54   Penn St. W 69-56 88%    
  Jan 06, 2019 24   Indiana W 70-61 80%    
  Jan 10, 2019 93   @ Illinois W 74-64 83%    
  Jan 13, 2019 48   Northwestern W 70-58 87%    
  Jan 19, 2019 13   @ Wisconsin W 61-60 53%    
  Jan 22, 2019 57   Minnesota W 74-61 89%    
  Jan 25, 2019 24   @ Indiana W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 29, 2019 14   Ohio St. W 68-61 75%    
  Feb 01, 2019 39   @ Iowa W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 05, 2019 99   @ Rutgers W 67-56 83%    
  Feb 09, 2019 13   Wisconsin W 64-57 73%    
  Feb 12, 2019 54   @ Penn St. W 66-59 73%    
  Feb 16, 2019 29   Maryland W 70-61 80%    
  Feb 21, 2019 57   @ Minnesota W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 24, 2019 7   Michigan St. W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 28, 2019 17   Nebraska W 70-62 76%    
  Mar 03, 2019 29   @ Maryland W 67-64 62%    
  Mar 09, 2019 7   @ Michigan St. L 67-69 42%    
Projected Record 26.1 - 4.9 15.1 - 4.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.6 10.9 12.6 9.5 4.9 1.3 46.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.4 7.9 5.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.0 5.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.4 1.0 0.1 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.7 10.0 13.3 15.9 16.5 14.2 9.7 4.9 1.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
19-1 100.0% 4.9    4.9 0.0
18-2 98.0% 9.5    8.8 0.6 0.0
17-3 88.3% 12.6    10.0 2.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 66.2% 10.9    6.4 3.9 0.6 0.0
15-5 35.0% 5.6    1.9 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 10.2% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 46.2% 46.2 33.4 10.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.3% 100.0% 52.5% 47.5% 1.0 1.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 4.9% 100.0% 47.6% 52.4% 1.0 4.9 0.1 100.0%
18-2 9.7% 100.0% 42.0% 58.0% 1.0 9.2 0.5 0.0 100.0%
17-3 14.2% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 1.1 12.3 1.8 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.5% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 1.3 11.4 4.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.9% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 1.7 6.7 7.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.3% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 2.3 2.4 6.4 3.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.0% 99.9% 16.7% 83.2% 3.0 0.4 3.0 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 6.7% 99.8% 11.5% 88.3% 3.9 0.0 0.7 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 3.9% 99.5% 7.9% 91.6% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
10-10 2.0% 97.9% 5.8% 92.1% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
9-11 1.0% 88.8% 3.4% 85.3% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 88.4%
8-12 0.4% 68.8% 4.3% 64.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 67.4%
7-13 0.2% 32.7% 2.5% 30.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.0%
6-14 0.1% 10.5% 10.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.5%
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.5% 27.7% 71.8% 2.1 48.7 24.5 11.7 5.9 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 99.3%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4