Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
22 Utah St. 65.4%   11   4 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 5 15 - 3 +13.0      +7.4 21 +5.6 49 69.6 180 +3.9 126 0.0 1
50 San Diego St. 50.9%   3 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 6 13 - 5 +10.0      +4.4 67 +5.6 50 67.2 255 +18.2 14 0.0 1
84 New Mexico 17.9%   2 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +6.4      +6.4 30 0.0 159 79.4 25 +7.0 82 0.0 1
105 Nevada 8.6%   2 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 +4.0      +2.1 109 +1.9 117 78.1 32 +4.2 119 0.0 1
119 Boise St. 4.9%   0 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 +2.5      +2.3 100 +0.2 152 73.6 88 -7.3 268 0.0 1
124 Fresno St. 4.6%   1 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +2.5      +0.3 162 +2.1 109 69.2 195 +0.4 174 0.0 1
147 UNLV 2.3%   1 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 16 8 - 10 +1.0      +1.0 142 0.0 160 66.0 280 -4.2 237 0.0 1
171 Colorado St. 1.6%   2 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -0.6      +0.8 149 -1.4 202 68.0 232 +9.9 59 0.0 1
177 Air Force 1.3%   2 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -1.0      +0.9 144 -2.0 224 66.6 270 -1.5 206 0.0 1
291 Wyoming 0.1%   1 - 2 0 - 0 7 - 21 4 - 14 -7.3      -7.3 334 0.0 158 55.3 352 -9.6 291 0.0 1
325 San Jose St. 0.0%   1 - 2 0 - 0 5 - 24 3 - 15 -10.8      -6.3 327 -4.4 301 72.7 105 -3.4 226 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Utah St. 1.6 62.4 22.5 8.7 3.7 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
San Diego St. 2.7 27.8 27.5 19.0 11.2 6.7 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 3.6 14.4 21.1 20.3 15.2 10.7 8.0 5.0 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.1
Nevada 4.5 6.1 13.6 17.6 17.7 14.6 11.5 8.4 5.9 3.4 1.0 0.2
Boise St. 5.5 3.4 7.4 11.2 14.3 15.2 14.6 13.1 10.6 7.2 2.4 0.6
Fresno St. 5.4 3.3 7.4 11.5 14.9 16.2 14.7 12.8 9.8 6.7 2.2 0.7
UNLV 6.4 1.3 3.6 6.8 10.1 12.5 14.7 16.2 15.8 13.1 4.5 1.3
Colorado St. 6.8 0.9 2.7 5.1 8.6 11.3 13.9 16.2 16.7 15.6 6.7 2.3
Air Force 6.9 0.8 2.4 4.9 7.8 10.5 13.4 15.6 17.9 16.7 7.5 2.6
Wyoming 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.6 8.7 17.1 39.4 25.6
San Jose St. 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 4.5 11.1 31.7 49.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah St. 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.0 5.6 9.8 14.7 19.2 20.7 16.8 7.7
San Diego St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.1 6.5 9.8 12.7 15.4 15.7 14.4 10.3 5.4 1.7
New Mexico 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.2 5.3 8.0 10.6 12.5 14.0 13.9 12.0 8.9 5.5 2.5 0.6
Nevada 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.8 6.0 8.6 11.4 13.5 14.2 13.3 10.9 7.7 4.5 2.1 0.7 0.1
Boise St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.7 7.3 10.1 12.4 13.5 13.4 12.0 9.1 6.5 4.0 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1
Fresno St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.2 6.9 9.8 12.0 13.8 14.0 12.2 9.9 6.6 4.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
UNLV 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 5.1 8.1 11.1 13.3 14.4 13.3 11.1 8.4 5.5 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.7 6.4 9.5 12.5 14.1 13.9 12.3 9.9 7.1 4.4 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Air Force 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.1 7.2 10.4 13.1 13.9 13.5 11.7 9.1 6.6 3.9 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 4 - 14 5.0 12.0 16.9 18.3 16.5 12.0 8.4 5.2 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 3 - 15 11.3 21.5 21.9 17.9 12.5 7.4 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 62.4% 48.5 11.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
San Diego St. 27.8% 18.0 8.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 14.4% 8.2 4.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nevada 6.1% 3.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 3.4% 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 3.3% 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNLV 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Air Force 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0 0.0
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 65.4% 44.1% 21.2% 11   1.1 1.8 2.7 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.6 5.1 6.2 8.0 13.8 8.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 34.6 38.0%
San Diego St. 50.9% 25.0% 26.0% 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.2 5.0 6.8 13.5 7.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 49.1 34.6%
New Mexico 17.9% 11.6% 6.3% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 5.1 5.3 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 82.1 7.1%
Nevada 8.6% 6.3% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.1 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 91.4 2.4%
Boise St. 4.9% 4.3% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 95.1 0.6%
Fresno St. 4.6% 3.9% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 95.4 0.6%
UNLV 2.3% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 97.7 0.2%
Colorado St. 1.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.4 0.2%
Air Force 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 98.7 0.1%
Wyoming 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Utah St. 65.4% 6.6% 62.7% 37.3% 16.9% 7.5% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5%
San Diego St. 50.9% 10.5% 45.8% 23.1% 8.5% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
New Mexico 17.9% 3.5% 16.2% 6.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Nevada 8.6% 1.4% 7.8% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boise St. 4.9% 0.4% 4.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 4.6% 0.4% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 2.3% 0.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 1.6% 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 49.5 43.9 6.4 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 1.5 0.0 57.6 38.4 3.9 0.1
2nd Round 60.6% 0.7 39.4 50.1 10.2 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 27.1% 0.3 72.9 25.6 1.5 0.0
Elite Eight 11.4% 0.1 88.6 11.1 0.2
Final Four 4.6% 0.0 95.4 4.5 0.0
Final Game 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Champion 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7