Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
14 San Diego St. 99.9%   3   20 - 0 10 - 0 27 - 1 17 - 1 +14.3      +6.0 37 +8.3 14 64.6 297 +25.3 2 +19.6 1
55 Utah St. 27.9%   14 - 6 5 - 4 21 - 8 12 - 6 +9.4      +4.4 59 +5.0 64 69.5 169 +8.8 65 +3.9 6
89 Nevada 8.2%   13 - 8 6 - 3 19 - 11 12 - 6 +6.0      +3.9 69 +2.1 111 73.1 84 +5.3 97 +7.1 3
91 Boise St. 7.5%   12 - 8 5 - 4 18 - 11 11 - 7 +5.9      +4.1 64 +1.8 123 71.9 104 +5.5 94 +5.5 4
104 Colorado St. 5.0%   13 - 8 5 - 4 18 - 12 10 - 8 +4.6      +3.0 90 +1.6 127 69.9 153 +5.9 91 +4.9 5
124 UNLV 2.7%   11 - 11 6 - 3 15 - 16 10 - 8 +2.7      +3.5 77 -0.7 187 65.8 273 +0.9 154 +7.5 2
125 New Mexico 2.2%   15 - 6 5 - 4 19 - 11 9 - 9 +2.6      +3.9 70 -1.2 206 78.8 20 +6.0 88 +1.6 7
158 Fresno St. 0.6%   5 - 14 2 - 7 9 - 19 6 - 12 +0.2      +0.8 159 -0.5 177 61.6 336 -5.6 257 -4.6 10
169 Air Force 0.4%   8 - 12 3 - 6 12 - 17 7 - 11 -0.4      +4.0 68 -4.3 298 69.3 178 -2.6 209 -0.9 9
281 Wyoming 0.0%   4 - 16 0 - 9 6 - 23 2 - 16 -6.6      -6.0 320 -0.7 185 62.1 332 -9.3 308 -13.3 11
288 San Jose St. 0.0%   6 - 14 3 - 6 8 - 21 5 - 13 -7.2      -3.4 276 -3.8 281 76.7 29 -3.6 224 -0.2 8






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 1.0 99.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 3.1 0.8 42.3 26.9 15.3 8.8 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0
Nevada 3.2 1.2 42.3 23.6 15.3 9.9 5.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 3.8 0.3 24.4 21.9 20.9 16.7 9.7 4.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
Colorado St. 4.4 0.2 16.7 17.6 19.1 19.5 15.9 8.2 2.4 0.4 0.0
UNLV 4.7 0.1 12.7 14.4 17.3 18.2 19.4 13.8 3.7 0.4 0.0
New Mexico 5.9 0.0 3.8 6.3 10.1 15.0 23.0 27.2 11.7 2.7 0.1
Fresno St. 8.3 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 5.5 13.1 29.6 33.6 14.6 0.6
Air Force 7.9 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.1 7.6 17.5 37.3 25.9 6.8 0.1
Wyoming 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.5 8.2 90.1
San Jose St. 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 9.5 29.8 55.9 2.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
San Diego St. 17 - 1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.9 12.5 26.6 34.2 21.8
Utah St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.9 14.6 26.3 30.2 18.8 4.0
Nevada 12 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.5 15.8 24.9 25.8 17.3 6.8 1.1
Boise St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.4 12.2 23.0 27.8 21.1 8.7 1.6
Colorado St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.4 2.5 8.4 18.1 25.6 24.5 14.9 5.0 0.6
UNLV 10 - 8 0.6 4.1 12.2 21.7 25.6 20.7 10.8 3.6 0.6 0.1
New Mexico 9 - 9 0.5 4.0 12.7 23.1 26.0 20.0 9.9 3.2 0.5 0.0
Fresno St. 6 - 12 0.3 2.9 9.4 18.6 24.8 22.0 14.6 5.8 1.4 0.2
Air Force 7 - 11 0.4 3.8 12.9 24.3 27.7 19.1 9.0 2.4 0.4 0.0
Wyoming 2 - 16 17.6 32.0 27.8 15.0 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.0
San Jose St. 5 - 13 12.7 31.2 30.7 17.4 6.3 1.4 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 99.4% 97.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 0.8% 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nevada 1.2% 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
UNLV 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St.
Air Force
Wyoming
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 99.9% 55.7% 44.2% 3   14.3 23.0 24.0 21.9 10.4 4.4 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.7%
Utah St. 27.9% 18.5% 9.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.5 3.6 14.0 7.2 0.1 72.1 11.6%
Nevada 8.2% 7.9% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 91.8 0.3%
Boise St. 7.5% 7.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4 4.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 92.5 0.3%
Colorado St. 5.0% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 95.0 0.1%
UNLV 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 97.3 0.0%
New Mexico 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 97.8 0.1%
Fresno St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 99.4 0.0%
Air Force 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.6 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
San Diego St. 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 85.5% 49.6% 23.4% 10.3% 4.4% 1.7%
Utah St. 27.9% 6.8% 24.7% 9.5% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Nevada 8.2% 0.3% 8.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boise St. 7.5% 0.2% 7.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 5.0% 0.1% 4.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 2.7% 0.0% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 2.2% 0.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 48.2 49.2 2.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.5 51.0 47.4 1.6
2nd Round 88.3% 1.0 11.7 76.2 11.9 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 52.4% 0.5 47.6 50.4 2.0
Elite Eight 24.5% 0.2 75.5 24.3 0.2
Final Four 10.6% 0.1 89.4 10.6 0.0
Final Game 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4
Champion 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7