UNLV
Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#124
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#154
Pace65.8#273
Improvement+5.1#13

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#77
First Shot+0.0#179
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#8
Layup/Dunks+1.6#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#284
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#211
Freethrows+1.5#71
Improvement+3.4#26

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#188
First Shot-2.4#254
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#43
Layups/Dunks+3.7#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#213
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#318
Freethrows-2.3#305
Improvement+1.6#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.7% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.2 13.8
.500 or above 39.8% 61.7% 29.4%
.500 or above in Conference 83.2% 95.2% 77.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round2.5% 3.7% 1.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 32.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 22 - 62 - 11
Quad 34 - 56 - 16
Quad 49 - 116 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 270   Purdue Fort Wayne W 86-71 86%     1 - 0 +6.1 +6.6 -0.8
  Nov 09, 2019 76   Kansas St. L 56-60 OT 45%     1 - 1 +0.0 -12.5 +12.4
  Nov 12, 2019 168   @ California L 75-79 OT 51%     1 - 2 -1.4 +6.2 -7.6
  Nov 15, 2019 116   @ UCLA L 54-71 37%     1 - 3 -10.9 -12.9 +0.6
  Nov 18, 2019 212   Abilene Christian W 72-58 80%     2 - 3 +8.0 +7.6 +2.2
  Nov 20, 2019 133   Texas St. L 57-64 64%     2 - 4 -8.0 -7.3 -1.7
  Nov 23, 2019 67   SMU L 68-72 42%     2 - 5 +0.9 +3.7 -3.4
  Nov 26, 2019 329   Jackson St. W 80-57 93%     3 - 5 +9.6 +1.9 +7.4
  Nov 30, 2019 43   @ Cincinnati L 65-72 OT 16%     3 - 6 +6.5 -8.0 +15.3
  Dec 04, 2019 159   @ Fresno St. W 81-80 2OT 48%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +4.1 +5.9 -1.8
  Dec 07, 2019 35   BYU L 50-83 20%     4 - 7 -21.4 -14.1 -11.0
  Dec 18, 2019 162   Pacific L 66-74 70%     4 - 8 -10.8 -0.4 -11.3
  Dec 21, 2019 222   Robert Morris W 81-69 81%     5 - 8 +5.4 +18.2 -10.9
  Dec 28, 2019 225   Eastern Michigan W 64-49 81%     6 - 8 +8.3 -6.0 +14.3
  Jan 01, 2020 55   Utah St. W 70-53 36%     7 - 8 2 - 0 +23.5 +2.9 +21.1
  Jan 04, 2020 170   Air Force W 71-59 72%     8 - 8 3 - 0 +8.7 -4.9 +14.1
  Jan 08, 2020 91   @ Boise St. L 66-73 28%     8 - 9 3 - 1 +1.8 -3.0 +4.7
  Jan 11, 2020 282   @ Wyoming W 78-69 OT 73%     9 - 9 4 - 1 +5.3 +4.0 +1.1
  Jan 15, 2020 288   San Jose St. W 98-87 88%     10 - 9 5 - 1 +0.9 +12.9 -12.8
  Jan 18, 2020 125   New Mexico W 99-78 62%     11 - 9 6 - 1 +20.7 +11.7 +6.5
  Jan 22, 2020 89   @ Nevada L 72-86 28%     11 - 10 6 - 2 -5.1 +3.5 -8.7
  Jan 26, 2020 14   San Diego St. L 67-71 21%     11 - 11 6 - 3 +7.4 +6.7 +0.3
  Feb 01, 2020 104   @ Colorado St. L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 05, 2020 55   @ Utah St. L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 08, 2020 159   Fresno St. W 69-64 70%    
  Feb 12, 2020 89   Nevada L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 15, 2020 125   @ New Mexico L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 18, 2020 104   Colorado St. W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 22, 2020 14   @ San Diego St. L 59-74 9%    
  Feb 26, 2020 91   Boise St. L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 29, 2020 288   @ San Jose St. W 77-70 74%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 6.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 1.4 9.1 3.8 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.6 7.7 8.2 0.3 16.8 4th
5th 0.2 5.1 11.8 1.6 0.0 18.8 5th
6th 0.2 3.4 11.8 3.8 0.1 19.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 7.4 4.3 0.3 13.9 7th
8th 0.4 1.7 1.2 0.1 3.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.7 3.9 12.2 21.9 25.0 21.2 10.5 3.8 0.8 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 33.3% 0.0    0.0
14-4 9.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1
13-5 1.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.8% 8.8% 8.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-5 3.8% 6.6% 6.6% 12.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.5
12-6 10.5% 5.9% 5.9% 12.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.9
11-7 21.2% 3.3% 3.3% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 20.5
10-8 25.0% 1.9% 1.9% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 24.5
9-9 21.9% 1.2% 1.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.7
8-10 12.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.1
7-11 3.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.1 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%