Nevada
Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#97
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#104
Pace73.3#78
Improvement+0.3#170

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#81
First Shot+5.9#29
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#325
Layup/Dunks-3.7#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#21
Freethrows+1.0#99
Improvement-0.6#208

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#115
First Shot+1.7#111
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#161
Layups/Dunks+3.7#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#79
Freethrows-2.2#297
Improvement+0.9#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 6.6% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.4
.500 or above 96.8% 98.8% 92.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.5% 97.2% 85.6%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round6.3% 6.6% 5.6%
Second Round1.4% 1.6% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 68.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 22 - 52 - 9
Quad 39 - 211 - 12
Quad 48 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 109   Utah L 74-79 65%     0 - 1 -3.9 -5.8 +2.3
  Nov 09, 2019 192   Loyola Marymount W 72-67 83%     1 - 1 -0.1 -3.1 +3.1
  Nov 12, 2019 120   Texas Arlington W 80-73 69%     2 - 1 +7.2 -1.3 +7.7
  Nov 16, 2019 58   USC L 66-76 49%     2 - 2 -4.5 -4.0 -0.4
  Nov 19, 2019 93   @ Davidson L 71-91 38%     2 - 3 -11.6 +2.7 -14.8
  Nov 22, 2019 258   Fordham W 74-60 84%     3 - 3 +8.6 +5.2 +3.8
  Nov 24, 2019 165   Valparaiso W 84-59 69%     4 - 3 +25.1 +7.5 +16.6
  Nov 25, 2019 160   Bowling Green W 77-62 68%     5 - 3 +15.3 +2.5 +12.8
  Dec 04, 2019 145   Santa Clara W 98-67 75%     6 - 3 +29.3 +16.2 +10.7
  Dec 07, 2019 164   @ Air Force W 100-85 58%     7 - 3 1 - 0 +18.1 +17.6 -0.6
  Dec 10, 2019 35   @ BYU L 42-75 18%     7 - 4 -18.3 -26.9 +9.7
  Dec 18, 2019 244   Texas Southern W 91-73 88%     8 - 4 +10.5 +3.0 +5.3
  Dec 21, 2019 37   St. Mary's L 63-68 27%     8 - 5 +6.5 -1.2 +7.3
  Jan 01, 2020 101   Colorado St. W 67-61 62%     9 - 5 2 - 0 +8.1 -7.4 +15.2
  Jan 04, 2020 108   Boise St. W 83-66 64%     10 - 5 3 - 0 +18.5 +14.2 +5.2
  Jan 08, 2020 294   @ San Jose St. L 68-70 83%     10 - 6 3 - 1 -6.8 -10.1 +3.4
  Jan 11, 2020 56   @ Utah St. L 70-80 26%     10 - 7 3 - 2 +1.9 +3.7 -1.8
  Jan 14, 2020 279   Wyoming W 68-67 91%     11 - 7 4 - 2 -8.6 -4.9 -3.6
  Jan 18, 2020 12   @ San Diego St. L 55-68 12%     11 - 8 4 - 3 +4.7 -5.7 +9.9
  Jan 22, 2020 131   UNLV W 86-72 71%     12 - 8 5 - 3 +13.5 +11.8 +1.8
  Jan 25, 2020 118   New Mexico W 82-77 68%    
  Jan 29, 2020 101   @ Colorado St. L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 01, 2020 108   @ Boise St. L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 04, 2020 164   Air Force W 80-72 78%    
  Feb 08, 2020 294   San Jose St. W 84-68 93%    
  Feb 12, 2020 131   @ UNLV L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 18, 2020 118   @ New Mexico L 79-80 46%    
  Feb 22, 2020 137   Fresno St. W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 25, 2020 279   @ Wyoming W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 29, 2020 12   San Diego St. L 65-72 27%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 4.7 14.2 10.7 3.9 0.4 33.9 2nd
3rd 2.5 12.6 6.3 0.6 21.9 3rd
4th 0.5 8.5 6.7 0.4 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 3.0 7.3 0.8 11.2 5th
6th 0.7 5.3 1.5 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 2.5 0.1 5.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.3 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 5.0 11.5 20.0 24.8 21.0 11.4 4.4 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 30.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-4 10.7% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1
13-5 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.5% 22.6% 9.4% 13.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 14.6%
14-4 4.4% 13.7% 13.2% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.8 0.5%
13-5 11.4% 10.0% 10.0% 11.9 0.2 0.8 0.1 10.3
12-6 21.0% 8.3% 8.3% 12.2 0.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 19.2
11-7 24.8% 5.7% 5.7% 12.4 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 23.4
10-8 20.0% 4.2% 4.2% 12.9 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 19.1
9-9 11.5% 3.4% 3.4% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.1
8-10 5.0% 1.4% 1.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
7-11 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 0.3% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.3% 6.2% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.6 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 93.7 0.1%