Arkansas Little Rock
Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#142
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#120
Pace70.5#142
Improvement+1.5#126

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#206
First Shot-1.6#228
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#138
Layup/Dunks+2.1#93
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#324
Freethrows+0.5#134
Improvement-0.3#198

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#104
First Shot+1.5#121
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#94
Layups/Dunks+3.1#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#137
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#306
Freethrows+0.7#142
Improvement+1.8#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 18.2% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.2
.500 or above 98.2% 99.1% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.7% 97.1%
Conference Champion 44.5% 48.6% 24.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.4% 18.2% 13.2%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 38 - 48 - 9
Quad 411 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 146   @ Missouri St. W 67-66 39%     1 - 0 +5.1 +6.0 -0.8
  Nov 10, 2019 210   @ Illinois St. L 70-75 56%     1 - 1 -5.2 -0.9 -4.3
  Nov 17, 2019 306   @ Central Arkansas W 76-56 76%     2 - 1 +14.1 -2.4 +16.4
  Nov 20, 2019 29   @ Memphis L 58-68 10%     2 - 2 +5.2 -11.0 +17.4
  Nov 23, 2019 40   @ North Carolina St. L 58-74 12%     2 - 3 -2.1 -12.3 +10.7
  Nov 26, 2019 311   St. Francis Brooklyn W 67-56 89%     3 - 3 -0.9 -12.7 +11.5
  Nov 27, 2019 297   Alcorn St. W 67-50 87%     4 - 3 +6.3 -13.2 +19.1
  Nov 30, 2019 66   East Tennessee St. L 63-67 36%     4 - 4 +1.0 +3.3 -3.0
  Dec 07, 2019 93   @ North Texas L 53-76 24%     4 - 5 -14.4 -10.0 -6.7
  Dec 10, 2019 247   Tennessee St. W 86-62 80%     5 - 5 +16.3 +2.3 +12.4
  Dec 19, 2019 258   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-72 65%     6 - 5 1 - 0 -1.5 -0.9 -0.7
  Dec 21, 2019 262   @ Louisiana W 69-66 66%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +0.2 -2.0 +2.4
  Jan 02, 2020 134   Texas St. W 72-68 58%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +3.3 +1.7 +1.7
  Jan 04, 2020 120   Texas Arlington W 92-89 55%     9 - 5 4 - 0 +3.2 +11.2 -8.3
  Jan 06, 2020 141   Georgia Southern W 79-73 60%     10 - 5 5 - 0 +4.7 +4.1 +0.6
  Jan 09, 2020 264   @ Troy L 71-76 66%     10 - 6 5 - 1 -7.9 -6.1 -1.6
  Jan 11, 2020 175   South Alabama L 43-52 68%     10 - 7 5 - 2 -12.4 -29.7 +16.7
  Jan 16, 2020 165   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-55 44%     11 - 7 6 - 2 +18.9 -6.3 +24.1
  Jan 18, 2020 205   @ Appalachian St. W 73-57 55%     12 - 7 7 - 2 +16.1 +2.5 +13.9
  Jan 22, 2020 264   Troy W 73-63 83%    
  Jan 25, 2020 175   @ South Alabama L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 30, 2020 165   Coastal Carolina W 75-71 66%    
  Feb 01, 2020 205   Appalachian St. W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 08, 2020 214   Arkansas St. W 73-66 76%    
  Feb 13, 2020 134   @ Texas St. L 63-67 36%    
  Feb 15, 2020 120   @ Texas Arlington L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 22, 2020 214   @ Arkansas St. W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 27, 2020 258   Louisiana Monroe W 70-60 82%    
  Feb 29, 2020 262   Louisiana W 77-67 82%    
  Mar 03, 2020 111   @ Georgia St. L 69-75 30%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.3 12.6 15.7 9.3 3.0 0.5 44.5 1st
2nd 0.0 2.1 10.7 9.7 2.7 0.2 25.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 6.1 6.3 1.0 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 4.6 0.8 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 1.0 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 7.0 14.0 21.1 23.4 18.4 9.5 3.0 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-3 100.0% 3.0    3.0 0.0
16-4 97.7% 9.3    8.3 0.9 0.0
15-5 85.4% 15.7    10.3 5.0 0.4 0.0
14-6 54.1% 12.6    3.9 6.1 2.3 0.3 0.0
13-7 15.6% 3.3    0.2 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 44.5% 44.5 26.3 13.1 4.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.5% 38.7% 38.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 3.0% 33.4% 33.4% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 2.0
16-4 9.5% 27.0% 27.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 6.9
15-5 18.4% 23.6% 23.6% 13.8 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 14.0
14-6 23.4% 20.8% 20.8% 14.1 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.3 0.0 18.5
13-7 21.1% 14.3% 14.3% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.1 18.1
12-8 14.0% 8.2% 8.2% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 12.9
11-9 7.0% 2.9% 2.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.8
10-10 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 2.4
9-11 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-12 0.1% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.7 4.5 8.1 3.8 0.2 82.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.3 7.1 62.6 28.3 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%