Memphis
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#28
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#27
Pace83.9#6
Improvement-2.0#269

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#82
First Shot+1.3#135
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#55
Layup/Dunks+4.8#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#276
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#272
Freethrows+1.3#87
Improvement-2.8#311

Defense
Total Defense+9.1#11
First Shot+9.1#5
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#163
Layups/Dunks+4.5#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#1
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#144
Freethrows+0.1#178
Improvement+0.8#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.2% 4.3% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 12.6% 16.4% 4.6%
Top 6 Seed 27.8% 34.1% 14.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.8% 87.8% 75.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.1% 83.1% 68.3%
Average Seed 7.5 7.2 8.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.1% 95.4%
Conference Champion 41.9% 49.3% 26.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.0% 5.7% 10.0%
First Round80.4% 85.2% 70.1%
Second Round47.2% 52.0% 37.1%
Sweet Sixteen19.5% 22.2% 13.5%
Elite Eight8.1% 9.5% 5.2%
Final Four3.1% 3.6% 2.0%
Championship Game1.1% 1.3% 0.7%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 68.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 23 - 4
Quad 27 - 310 - 7
Quad 38 - 118 - 8
Quad 47 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 326   South Carolina St. W 97-64 98%     1 - 0 +19.7 +5.4 +11.2
  Nov 08, 2019 238   Illinois-Chicago W 92-46 95%     2 - 0 +38.8 +14.6 +23.2
  Nov 12, 2019 22   Oregon L 74-82 46%     2 - 1 +5.4 +0.2 +5.8
  Nov 16, 2019 332   Alcorn St. W 102-56 98%     3 - 1 +32.3 -0.2 +22.6
  Nov 20, 2019 161   Arkansas Little Rock W 68-58 91%     4 - 1 +7.5 -12.3 +18.6
  Nov 23, 2019 101   Mississippi W 87-86 84%     5 - 1 +2.8 +3.1 -0.5
  Nov 28, 2019 42   North Carolina St. W 83-78 56%     6 - 1 +15.8 +13.0 +2.9
  Dec 03, 2019 90   Bradley W 71-56 81%     7 - 1 +17.8 -3.6 +20.6
  Dec 07, 2019 174   @ UAB W 65-57 82%     8 - 1 +10.5 -4.0 +14.6
  Dec 14, 2019 57   @ Tennessee W 51-47 52%     9 - 1 +15.6 -11.2 +27.1
  Dec 21, 2019 327   Jackson St. W 77-49 98%     10 - 1 +14.7 -11.7 +22.2
  Dec 28, 2019 306   New Orleans W 97-55 98%     11 - 1 +30.2 -1.5 +23.9
  Dec 31, 2019 160   Tulane W 84-73 91%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +8.6 +5.0 +3.1
  Jan 04, 2020 61   Georgia L 62-65 74%     12 - 2 +2.5 -10.1 +12.7
  Jan 09, 2020 38   @ Wichita St. L 67-76 42%     12 - 3 1 - 1 +5.3 -0.8 +6.7
  Jan 12, 2020 117   @ South Florida W 68-64 71%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +10.6 +0.9 +9.7
  Jan 16, 2020 47   Cincinnati W 60-49 69%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +18.0 -3.9 +22.5
  Jan 22, 2020 106   @ Tulsa W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 25, 2020 83   SMU W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 29, 2020 108   @ Central Florida W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 01, 2020 82   Connecticut W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 05, 2020 76   Temple W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 08, 2020 117   South Florida W 74-63 86%    
  Feb 13, 2020 47   @ Cincinnati L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 16, 2020 82   @ Connecticut W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 19, 2020 221   East Carolina W 84-65 96%    
  Feb 22, 2020 34   Houston W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 25, 2020 83   @ SMU W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 29, 2020 160   @ Tulane W 78-69 79%    
  Mar 05, 2020 38   Wichita St. W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 08, 2020 34   @ Houston L 73-75 41%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 8.6 13.6 11.3 5.2 1.0 41.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 8.6 9.6 3.9 0.5 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 6.0 6.2 1.4 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 4.4 0.9 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 2.9 0.9 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 0.8 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.5 7th
8th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.8 7.7 13.3 17.7 19.6 17.6 11.9 5.2 1.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
16-2 100.0% 5.2    5.1 0.1
15-3 95.5% 11.3    9.8 1.5 0.0
14-4 77.3% 13.6    8.4 4.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 43.9% 8.6    2.8 3.9 1.7 0.2
12-6 11.2% 2.0    0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 41.9% 41.9 27.3 11.0 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.0% 100.0% 48.2% 51.8% 2.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.2% 99.8% 41.3% 58.6% 3.3 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-3 11.9% 99.7% 37.1% 62.6% 4.9 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.7 2.5 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-4 17.6% 98.1% 30.9% 67.2% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.7 3.5 3.8 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.3 97.3%
13-5 19.6% 94.1% 27.9% 66.2% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.4 4.1 4.3 2.7 0.9 0.0 1.2 91.8%
12-6 17.7% 85.1% 22.4% 62.7% 9.3 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.2 4.3 2.5 0.1 2.6 80.8%
11-7 13.3% 70.1% 17.8% 52.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.0 3.2 0.4 4.0 63.7%
10-8 7.7% 52.7% 13.5% 39.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 0.4 3.7 45.3%
9-9 3.8% 31.2% 8.0% 23.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 2.6 25.2%
8-10 1.5% 13.0% 6.6% 6.4% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3 6.8%
7-11 0.4% 11.4% 7.8% 3.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.0%
6-12 0.1% 6.9% 6.9% 12.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 83.8% 25.8% 58.0% 7.5 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.9 6.8 8.3 9.8 10.9 12.6 12.0 9.4 1.3 16.2 78.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.7 44.8 44.4 10.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 2.6 13.8 40.2 28.7 10.3 6.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 2.5 23.0 32.2 18.4 24.1 2.3