Memphis
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#23
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#71
Pace86.8#9
Improvement-1.1#299

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#32
First Shot+4.4#66
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#79
Layup/Dunks+7.9#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#225
Freethrows+0.9#122
Improvement-3.1#353

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#27
First Shot+7.6#14
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#230
Layups/Dunks+0.8#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#3
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#102
Freethrows-1.3#249
Improvement+2.0#11
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.5% 3.1% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 6.3% 7.9% 2.4%
Top 4 Seed 17.0% 20.5% 8.3%
Top 6 Seed 29.3% 34.2% 17.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.1% 78.3% 60.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.4% 68.7% 48.1%
Average Seed 7.2 6.9 8.1
.500 or above 99.2% 99.6% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 97.1% 94.6%
Conference Champion 38.2% 41.2% 30.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.9% 7.5% 8.8%
First Round69.6% 75.0% 56.3%
Second Round45.1% 49.8% 33.3%
Sweet Sixteen20.7% 23.6% 13.5%
Elite Eight9.5% 11.0% 5.9%
Final Four4.3% 5.1% 2.4%
Championship Game1.9% 2.2% 1.0%
National Champion0.8% 0.9% 0.4%

Next Game: Mississippi (Home) - 71.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 5
Quad 26 - 29 - 7
Quad 38 - 117 - 8
Quad 48 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 327   South Carolina St. W 97-64 99%     1 - 0 +19.1 +5.4 +10.6
  Nov 08, 2019 207   Illinois-Chicago W 92-46 95%     2 - 0 +40.4 +15.5 +24.0
  Nov 12, 2019 13   Oregon L 74-82 40%     2 - 1 +8.0 +4.0 +4.6
  Nov 16, 2019 338   Alcorn St. W 102-56 99%     3 - 1 +30.5 +0.7 +19.9
  Nov 20, 2019 156   Arkansas Little Rock W 68-58 93%     4 - 1 +7.2 -12.6 +18.7
  Nov 23, 2019 47   Mississippi W 81-75 71%    
  Nov 28, 2019 39   North Carolina St. W 87-85 58%    
  Dec 03, 2019 123   Bradley W 80-66 90%    
  Dec 07, 2019 186   @ UAB W 80-68 86%    
  Dec 14, 2019 19   @ Tennessee L 78-81 38%    
  Dec 21, 2019 318   Jackson St. W 91-65 99%    
  Dec 28, 2019 259   New Orleans W 89-67 97%    
  Dec 31, 2019 214   Tulane W 91-72 96%    
  Jan 04, 2020 66   Georgia W 89-81 77%    
  Jan 09, 2020 53   @ Wichita St. W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 12, 2020 142   @ South Florida W 79-70 79%    
  Jan 16, 2020 25   Cincinnati W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 22, 2020 143   @ Tulsa W 81-72 79%    
  Jan 25, 2020 93   SMU W 80-69 84%    
  Jan 29, 2020 117   @ Central Florida W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 01, 2020 75   Connecticut W 85-76 80%    
  Feb 05, 2020 89   Temple W 84-73 82%    
  Feb 08, 2020 142   South Florida W 82-67 90%    
  Feb 13, 2020 25   @ Cincinnati L 75-77 41%    
  Feb 16, 2020 75   @ Connecticut W 82-79 62%    
  Feb 19, 2020 238   East Carolina W 89-68 96%    
  Feb 22, 2020 45   Houston W 81-75 69%    
  Feb 25, 2020 93   @ SMU W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 29, 2020 214   @ Tulane W 88-75 87%    
  Mar 05, 2020 53   Wichita St. W 79-72 73%    
  Mar 08, 2020 45   @ Houston L 78-79 49%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.9 11.3 10.1 5.8 1.8 38.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.4 8.0 3.6 0.6 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.9 4.8 1.4 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.0 9.6 12.6 14.9 16.2 15.0 10.7 5.8 1.8 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 100.0% 5.8    5.6 0.2
16-2 94.3% 10.1    8.7 1.4 0.0
15-3 75.2% 11.3    7.4 3.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 42.6% 6.9    2.7 3.1 1.0 0.1
13-5 14.4% 2.2    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.2% 38.2 26.5 9.2 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 100.0% 62.6% 37.4% 2.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 5.8% 99.9% 54.3% 45.5% 2.9 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
16-2 10.7% 99.3% 46.7% 52.6% 4.4 0.5 1.3 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.7%
15-3 15.0% 97.0% 37.8% 59.2% 6.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.4 95.2%
14-4 16.2% 90.9% 31.4% 59.5% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 86.7%
13-5 14.9% 78.3% 24.9% 53.5% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 3.2 71.2%
12-6 12.6% 61.4% 20.2% 41.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 4.8 51.7%
11-7 9.6% 42.4% 13.5% 29.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 0.6 0.0 5.5 33.5%
10-8 6.0% 25.5% 9.7% 15.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.5 17.5%
9-9 3.9% 13.2% 6.2% 6.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.4 7.4%
8-10 2.0% 5.3% 4.0% 1.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9 1.4%
7-11 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.4% 2.1% 2.1% 12.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.2% 3.5% 3.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 73.1% 28.5% 44.6% 7.2 2.5 3.9 4.4 6.2 6.3 6.0 7.0 7.0 8.2 8.9 10.2 2.4 0.1 26.9 62.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.4 65.3 30.6 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 45.6 47.1 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.8 37.5 46.9 15.6