Alabama
Southeastern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#34
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#64
Pace85.7#3
Improvement+7.4#2

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#39
First Shot+4.9#49
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#108
Layup/Dunks+1.5#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#26
Freethrows+1.9#52
Improvement+3.0#34

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#40
First Shot+5.4#40
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#114
Layups/Dunks+5.0#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#36
Freethrows-0.8#238
Improvement+4.4#8
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.7% 4.5% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 10.5% 12.1% 4.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.2% 62.1% 44.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.2% 57.3% 39.4%
Average Seed 8.4 8.3 8.9
.500 or above 97.8% 98.9% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 95.2% 93.1%
Conference Champion 11.8% 12.4% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.9% 8.1% 7.0%
First Round54.8% 58.8% 41.2%
Second Round30.8% 33.6% 21.2%
Sweet Sixteen12.0% 13.5% 6.7%
Elite Eight5.2% 5.8% 2.8%
Final Four2.0% 2.2% 1.2%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Home) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 26 - 310 - 11
Quad 37 - 117 - 12
Quad 43 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 146   Penn L 80-81 90%     0 - 1 -2.9 -8.4 +5.7
  Nov 11, 2019 181   Florida Atlantic W 78-59 92%     1 - 1 +15.3 -1.0 +15.0
  Nov 15, 2019 62   @ Rhode Island L 79-93 53%     1 - 2 -2.8 +0.4 -0.8
  Nov 19, 2019 85   Furman W 81-73 79%     2 - 2 +11.4 -1.0 +11.4
  Nov 27, 2019 59   North Carolina L 67-76 63%     2 - 3 -0.6 -8.7 +9.1
  Nov 28, 2019 54   Iowa St. L 89-104 61%     2 - 4 -5.8 +5.3 -8.9
  Nov 29, 2019 251   Southern Miss W 83-68 93%     3 - 4 +10.1 +9.8 +0.8
  Dec 06, 2019 138   Stephen F. Austin W 78-68 89%     4 - 4 +8.7 +0.8 +7.2
  Dec 14, 2019 25   @ Penn St. L 71-73 35%     4 - 5 +13.9 -2.6 +16.8
  Dec 18, 2019 285   @ Samford W 105-87 92%     5 - 5 +13.9 +10.3 +0.6
  Dec 21, 2019 92   Belmont W 92-72 73%     6 - 5 +25.5 +10.8 +12.4
  Dec 29, 2019 73   Richmond W 90-78 77%     7 - 5 +16.3 +11.5 +4.0
  Jan 04, 2020 18   @ Florida L 98-104 2OT 32%     7 - 6 0 - 1 +10.6 +9.3 +2.8
  Jan 08, 2020 41   Mississippi St. W 90-69 65%     8 - 6 1 - 1 +29.0 +14.4 +13.5
  Jan 11, 2020 13   @ Kentucky L 67-76 30%     8 - 7 1 - 2 +8.5 -1.2 +10.2
  Jan 15, 2020 27   Auburn W 83-64 59%     9 - 7 2 - 2 +28.7 +1.2 +24.4
  Jan 18, 2020 79   Missouri W 88-74 78%     10 - 7 3 - 2 +18.0 +11.2 +5.6
  Jan 22, 2020 154   @ Vanderbilt W 77-62 78%     11 - 7 4 - 2 +18.6 -2.1 +19.4
  Jan 25, 2020 83   Kansas St. W 76-68 78%    
  Jan 29, 2020 33   @ LSU L 83-86 38%    
  Feb 01, 2020 40   Arkansas W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 04, 2020 51   Tennessee W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 08, 2020 74   @ Georgia W 82-80 56%    
  Feb 12, 2020 27   @ Auburn L 77-81 37%    
  Feb 15, 2020 33   LSU W 86-83 61%    
  Feb 19, 2020 128   Texas A&M W 76-64 87%    
  Feb 22, 2020 112   @ Mississippi W 80-75 68%    
  Feb 25, 2020 41   @ Mississippi St. L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 29, 2020 91   South Carolina W 85-76 81%    
  Mar 03, 2020 154   Vanderbilt W 86-72 90%    
  Mar 07, 2020 79   @ Missouri W 74-72 58%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.9 4.9 2.9 0.8 11.8 1st
2nd 0.2 3.1 7.8 4.2 0.4 0.0 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 8.6 5.0 0.4 0.0 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 7.1 7.0 0.9 15.8 4th
5th 0.2 3.6 7.6 1.6 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 6.5 2.6 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.5 3.6 3.6 0.3 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.7 0.5 4.6 8th
9th 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.8 8.9 15.1 19.9 20.6 16.7 9.5 3.3 0.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 98.8% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 87.3% 2.9    1.8 1.1 0.1
14-4 51.6% 4.9    1.6 2.3 0.9 0.1
13-5 17.2% 2.9    0.3 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
12-6 1.4% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.8% 11.8 4.3 4.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.8% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 3.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
15-3 3.3% 99.7% 25.9% 73.8% 4.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-4 9.5% 97.2% 18.0% 79.1% 6.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.3 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 96.5%
13-5 16.7% 90.4% 17.4% 73.0% 8.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.4 2.7 3.8 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.0 1.6 88.3%
12-6 20.6% 73.4% 12.0% 61.4% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 3.8 4.0 2.7 0.2 5.5 69.8%
11-7 19.9% 48.8% 7.0% 41.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.6 3.7 0.5 10.2 45.0%
10-8 15.1% 25.8% 5.0% 20.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 0.3 11.2 21.9%
9-9 8.9% 9.2% 2.7% 6.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 8.1 6.7%
8-10 3.8% 4.7% 3.7% 1.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6 1.1%
7-11 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 12.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.3% 3.1% 3.1% 13.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 58.2% 10.7% 47.5% 8.4 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 2.7 4.1 6.9 9.7 10.2 10.2 9.5 1.2 0.0 41.8 53.2%