Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#269
Expected Predictive Rating-8.6#296
Pace72.7#97
Improvement-5.0#339

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#231
First Shot-0.3#189
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#285
Layup/Dunks+0.6#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#144
Freethrows-1.0#253
Improvement+0.5#145

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#296
First Shot-3.3#283
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#249
Layups/Dunks-0.8#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#270
Freethrows+1.5#83
Improvement-5.4#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 4.5% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 3.2% 13.9% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 35.3% 69.4% 33.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 0.2% 3.3%
First Four1.8% 2.4% 1.8%
First Round1.4% 3.2% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Away) - 5.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 41 - 11
Quad 49 - 710 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 284   Middle Tennessee L 70-73 65%     0 - 1 -13.0 -15.9 +3.3
  Nov 12, 2019 232   @ Tennessee St. L 78-79 32%     0 - 2 -2.2 +0.6 -2.7
  Nov 15, 2019 89   @ Duquesne L 36-58 9%     0 - 3 -13.2 -31.4 +18.3
  Nov 20, 2019 88   Belmont L 67-73 20%     0 - 4 -2.9 -6.8 +4.0
  Nov 22, 2019 217   @ Navy W 65-61 30%     1 - 4 +3.6 +3.4 +0.8
  Nov 25, 2019 341   @ Tennessee Tech W 78-65 67%     2 - 4 +2.6 +2.2 +0.5
  Nov 30, 2019 53   @ Xavier L 62-87 6%     2 - 5 -12.8 -5.9 -5.9
  Dec 03, 2019 88   @ Belmont L 75-80 9%     2 - 6 +3.9 -1.8 +6.1
  Dec 17, 2019 341   Tennessee Tech W 78-60 83%     3 - 6 +1.9 -2.7 +4.2
  Dec 20, 2019 81   @ Vermont L 63-86 8%     3 - 7 -13.4 -7.1 -5.1
  Dec 29, 2019 25   @ Auburn L 59-86 3%     3 - 8 -11.5 -2.0 -11.3
  Jan 02, 2020 322   @ Stetson W 66-63 54%     4 - 8 1 - 0 -4.1 -2.1 -1.6
  Jan 04, 2020 304   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 61-68 48%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -12.5 -8.3 -4.5
  Jan 09, 2020 346   Kennesaw St. W 85-73 86%     5 - 9 2 - 1 -5.8 +3.0 -9.1
  Jan 11, 2020 289   North Alabama L 69-82 66%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -23.3 -6.2 -17.0
  Jan 16, 2020 260   @ NJIT L 57-75 37%     5 - 11 2 - 3 -20.7 -11.3 -11.3
  Jan 18, 2020 58   @ Liberty L 56-73 5%    
  Jan 23, 2020 242   Jacksonville W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 25, 2020 166   North Florida L 78-81 39%    
  Feb 01, 2020 322   Stetson W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 06, 2020 289   @ North Alabama L 70-71 44%    
  Feb 08, 2020 346   @ Kennesaw St. W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 13, 2020 260   NJIT W 72-70 59%    
  Feb 15, 2020 304   Florida Gulf Coast W 71-66 69%    
  Feb 20, 2020 242   @ Jacksonville L 64-68 34%    
  Feb 22, 2020 166   @ North Florida L 75-84 21%    
  Feb 29, 2020 58   Liberty L 58-70 14%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 5.7 2.7 0.2 10.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 9.4 4.2 0.3 0.0 16.7 4th
5th 0.0 2.0 11.2 6.0 0.4 19.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 9.8 7.9 0.7 19.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 7.5 7.9 0.9 17.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.3 4.5 0.8 10.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 9th
Total 0.2 1.6 6.1 13.5 20.6 22.7 18.3 11.1 4.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-4 15.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.2% 28.1% 28.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 1.2% 6.9% 6.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.1
10-6 4.6% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.1 0.2 4.3
9-7 11.1% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 10.6
8-8 18.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.6 17.7
7-9 22.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.5 22.3
6-10 20.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 20.3
5-11 13.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.4
4-12 6.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.1
3-13 1.6% 1.6
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.1 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%