Samford
Southern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#264
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#251
Pace74.1#66
Improvement-2.1#271

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#214
First Shot-1.7#229
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#146
Layup/Dunks+1.8#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#207
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#250
Freethrows-0.7#228
Improvement-0.9#234

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#308
First Shot-3.8#301
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#239
Layups/Dunks-0.5#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#291
Freethrows+0.8#139
Improvement-1.2#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 7.5% 11.3% 2.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 3.4% 14.5%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 57.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 70 - 10
Quad 31 - 72 - 17
Quad 48 - 49 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 290   @ Morehead St. L 86-90 2OT 45%     0 - 1 -8.5 -5.5 -2.3
  Nov 11, 2019 88   @ Belmont L 63-95 9%     0 - 2 -23.1 -12.5 -7.3
  Nov 16, 2019 292   @ North Alabama L 55-61 45%     0 - 3 -10.5 -14.7 +3.9
  Nov 19, 2019 224   Manhattan W 70-57 53%     1 - 3 +6.4 +0.9 +6.2
  Nov 23, 2019 276   Troy W 72-60 64%     2 - 3 +2.6 -7.9 +10.0
  Nov 27, 2019 131   @ South Dakota St. L 77-86 15%     2 - 4 -4.0 +6.1 -10.3
  Nov 30, 2019 86   @ Louisiana Tech L 57-78 9%     2 - 5 -11.7 -14.0 +3.0
  Dec 07, 2019 345   @ Houston Baptist W 113-90 70%     3 - 5 +11.6 +14.9 -5.4
  Dec 15, 2019 180   @ Hawaii L 73-94 22%     3 - 6 -18.8 -9.4 -6.3
  Dec 18, 2019 40   Alabama L 87-105 10%     3 - 7 -9.7 +3.6 -10.4
  Dec 21, 2019 44   @ Georgetown L 71-99 5%     3 - 8 -14.6 -6.5 -4.7
  Jan 01, 2020 285   The Citadel W 69-68 65%     4 - 8 1 - 0 -9.0 -14.9 +5.9
  Jan 04, 2020 298   @ VMI W 78-75 47%     5 - 8 2 - 0 -2.1 -3.2 +1.0
  Jan 08, 2020 138   Wofford L 62-67 32%     5 - 9 2 - 1 -6.1 -9.8 +3.3
  Jan 11, 2020 165   @ Chattanooga L 67-105 20%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -34.8 -10.0 -22.3
  Jan 15, 2020 75   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-88 8%     5 - 11 2 - 3 -15.1 -4.2 -10.9
  Jan 18, 2020 252   Mercer W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 22, 2020 80   @ Furman L 66-81 7%    
  Jan 25, 2020 84   UNC Greensboro L 66-75 19%    
  Jan 29, 2020 165   Chattanooga L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 01, 2020 138   @ Wofford L 67-78 16%    
  Feb 05, 2020 154   Western Carolina L 80-84 36%    
  Feb 09, 2020 84   @ UNC Greensboro L 63-78 8%    
  Feb 12, 2020 80   Furman L 69-79 19%    
  Feb 15, 2020 285   @ The Citadel L 81-83 44%    
  Feb 19, 2020 252   @ Mercer L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 22, 2020 75   East Tennessee St. L 66-76 18%    
  Feb 26, 2020 154   @ Western Carolina L 77-87 18%    
  Feb 29, 2020 298   VMI W 78-73 68%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.6 2.3 0.2 11.0 6th
7th 0.9 7.1 14.4 12.1 4.3 0.6 0.0 39.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 8.0 11.7 6.3 1.3 0.1 28.7 8th
9th 0.5 4.1 5.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.3 9th
10th 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.9 10th
Total 1.5 6.9 14.9 20.8 21.6 16.7 10.1 5.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 4.9% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 3.3% 3.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.6
10-8 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.8
9-9 5.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.0
8-10 10.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.0
7-11 16.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.6
6-12 21.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 21.6
5-13 20.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 20.8
4-14 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
3-15 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.9
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%