Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#226
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#264
Pace69.9#170
Improvement-4.9#339

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#218
First Shot-1.7#234
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#151
Layup/Dunks+0.8#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#298
Freethrows-0.5#206
Improvement-1.2#245

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#239
First Shot-2.7#252
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#148
Layups/Dunks-2.2#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#131
Freethrows-3.2#329
Improvement-3.7#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.4% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 55.0% 58.9% 28.9%
.500 or above in Conference 62.3% 66.5% 34.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.6% 4.1%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
First Round1.8% 2.0% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 87.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 413 - 715 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 24   @ Texas Tech L 60-85 4%     0 - 1 -8.9 -3.6 -4.6
  Nov 08, 2019 25   @ Wisconsin L 52-65 4%     0 - 2 +3.1 -8.2 +10.5
  Nov 12, 2019 353   Chicago St. W 98-34 96%     1 - 2 +39.9 +2.4 +31.5
  Nov 23, 2019 279   Bethune-Cookman L 63-66 61%     1 - 3 -9.6 -11.1 +1.4
  Nov 24, 2019 347   @ Incarnate Word W 72-63 81%     2 - 3 -4.2 -6.0 +2.0
  Dec 04, 2019 242   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 69-74 42%     2 - 4 -6.7 -6.0 -0.6
  Dec 07, 2019 210   Green Bay W 93-80 58%     3 - 4 +7.0 +5.7 +0.3
  Dec 14, 2019 250   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-68 43%     4 - 4 +4.9 -2.8 +7.3
  Dec 16, 2019 330   @ Western Illinois W 85-47 65%     5 - 4 +30.2 +4.3 +25.4
  Dec 21, 2019 218   @ Grand Canyon L 63-85 38%     5 - 5 -22.5 -13.0 -8.7
  Jan 02, 2020 232   @ Tennessee St. L 79-84 40%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -6.2 +3.8 -9.9
  Jan 04, 2020 88   @ Belmont L 55-87 12%     5 - 7 0 - 2 -23.1 -16.1 -5.8
  Jan 09, 2020 323   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-77 63%     5 - 8 0 - 3 -10.2 -4.4 -5.7
  Jan 11, 2020 290   @ Morehead St. L 66-69 53%     5 - 9 0 - 4 -7.5 -10.0 +2.6
  Jan 16, 2020 235   Jacksonville St. W 70-69 63%     6 - 9 1 - 4 -6.1 -3.3 -2.8
  Jan 18, 2020 339   Tennessee Tech W 73-61 87%    
  Jan 23, 2020 297   Tennessee Martin W 81-74 75%    
  Jan 25, 2020 331   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 30, 2020 124   @ Murray St. L 67-76 19%    
  Feb 01, 2020 172   @ Austin Peay L 71-77 27%    
  Feb 06, 2020 323   Eastern Kentucky W 80-71 81%    
  Feb 08, 2020 290   Morehead St. W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 13, 2020 336   SIU Edwardsville W 78-67 86%    
  Feb 15, 2020 297   @ Tennessee Martin W 78-77 55%    
  Feb 20, 2020 124   Murray St. L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 22, 2020 172   Austin Peay L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 27, 2020 331   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 29, 2020 336   @ SIU Edwardsville W 75-69 69%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.6 7.3 2.0 0.1 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 7.5 9.9 3.4 0.2 22.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 5.8 9.3 3.2 0.2 0.0 19.1 6th
7th 0.2 3.4 8.0 2.9 0.2 14.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 5.2 2.5 0.2 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.8 1.9 0.1 5.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 2.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.7 11.2 17.6 21.0 19.4 13.2 6.4 2.0 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 22.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 21.1% 21.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 2.0% 11.3% 11.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.8
12-6 6.4% 7.0% 7.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.0
11-7 13.2% 3.8% 3.8% 15.8 0.1 0.4 12.7
10-8 19.4% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.1 0.4 18.9
9-9 21.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 20.6
8-10 17.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 17.4
7-11 11.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.2
6-12 5.7% 5.7
5-13 2.3% 2.3
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.4 1.8 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 14.4 69.2 23.1 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%