Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Horizon
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#250
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#263
Pace70.9#140
Improvement-1.1#227

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#272
First Shot-2.9#268
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#212
Layup/Dunks-4.8#331
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#132
Freethrows+0.2#155
Improvement+2.4#46

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#214
First Shot-3.0#272
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#77
Layups/Dunks+0.2#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#176
Freethrows-3.7#335
Improvement-3.5#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.8% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 12.5% 18.6% 5.6%
.500 or above in Conference 50.6% 64.0% 35.5%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 1.8% 8.4%
First Four2.2% 2.4% 2.0%
First Round2.2% 2.8% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Home) - 53.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 410 - 812 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 240   Western Michigan L 110-115 3OT 59%     0 - 1 -12.3 -6.0 -4.5
  Nov 15, 2019 241   UMKC W 61-52 59%     1 - 1 +1.6 -8.2 +10.9
  Nov 19, 2019 234   North Dakota W 79-70 58%     2 - 1 +1.9 -3.6 +4.9
  Nov 22, 2019 219   Rice L 69-75 44%     2 - 2 -9.5 -12.4 +3.4
  Nov 23, 2019 310   Morgan St. W 62-57 66%     3 - 2 -4.2 -15.1 +11.0
  Nov 24, 2019 211   George Washington L 63-66 43%     3 - 3 -6.1 -10.7 +4.6
  Dec 03, 2019 145   @ Drake L 53-56 19%     3 - 4 +1.4 -12.5 +13.7
  Dec 10, 2019 1   @ Kansas L 68-95 1%     3 - 5 -2.9 +8.8 -11.7
  Dec 14, 2019 226   Eastern Illinois L 68-75 57%     3 - 6 -13.7 -12.9 -0.3
  Dec 21, 2019 25   @ Wisconsin L 64-83 4%     3 - 7 -2.9 +4.4 -8.4
  Dec 28, 2019 119   @ Northern Kentucky L 64-74 15%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -3.6 -1.7 -2.5
  Dec 30, 2019 114   @ Wright St. L 70-82 14%     3 - 9 0 - 2 -5.3 -1.4 -3.6
  Jan 03, 2020 309   IUPUI W 78-74 75%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -8.1 -9.0 +0.6
  Jan 05, 2020 238   Illinois-Chicago W 64-62 58%     5 - 9 2 - 2 -5.2 -6.5 +1.5
  Jan 11, 2020 210   @ Green Bay W 87-80 32%     6 - 9 3 - 2 +6.8 +2.3 +3.9
  Jan 16, 2020 270   Detroit Mercy L 84-90 65%     6 - 10 3 - 3 -15.0 -2.6 -11.9
  Jan 18, 2020 204   Oakland W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 23, 2020 237   @ Youngstown St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 25, 2020 308   @ Cleveland St. W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 31, 2020 114   Wright St. L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 02, 2020 119   Northern Kentucky L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 06, 2020 238   @ Illinois-Chicago L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 08, 2020 309   @ IUPUI W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 15, 2020 210   Green Bay W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 21, 2020 204   @ Oakland L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 23, 2020 270   @ Detroit Mercy L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 27, 2020 308   Cleveland St. W 72-65 75%    
  Feb 29, 2020 237   Youngstown St. W 71-69 58%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 6.0 6.7 2.4 0.3 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 7.0 7.3 1.7 0.1 16.9 4th
5th 0.4 5.6 8.1 1.6 0.0 15.8 5th
6th 0.1 3.3 8.9 2.3 0.1 14.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 7.4 3.3 0.1 12.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.9 3.7 0.2 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.7 2.7 0.3 6.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.8 10th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.3 9.5 15.2 18.9 18.7 15.3 9.8 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 55.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.4% 11.0% 11.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.6% 10.2% 10.2% 15.4 0.1 0.1 1.5
12-6 4.8% 7.5% 7.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.4
11-7 9.8% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.5 9.3
10-8 15.3% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6 14.7
9-9 18.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.6 18.0
8-10 18.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.5 18.4
7-11 15.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 14.9
6-12 9.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.4
5-13 4.3% 4.3
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.8 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%