Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#293
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#259
Pace74.1#68
Improvement-1.7#253

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#313
First Shot-4.9#308
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#234
Layup/Dunks-1.3#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#345
Freethrows-0.3#189
Improvement-2.8#309

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#230
First Shot-1.7#214
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#211
Layups/Dunks+0.2#161
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#288
Freethrows-1.5#267
Improvement+1.1#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 18.1% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 56.7% 71.8% 44.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 97.3% 87.4%
Conference Champion 21.3% 35.1% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four13.5% 15.9% 11.5%
First Round7.4% 9.5% 5.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Home) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 414 - 815 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2019 315   @ SE Louisiana W 81-70 46%     1 - 0 +4.4 -0.9 +4.4
  Nov 20, 2019 291   @ San Jose St. L 76-83 38%     1 - 1 -11.5 -9.4 -1.2
  Nov 23, 2019 63   @ Oregon St. L 58-80 5%     1 - 2 -10.9 -11.9 +0.8
  Nov 26, 2019 213   Portland St. L 74-84 33%     1 - 3 -13.2 -5.1 -8.0
  Nov 29, 2019 162   @ UC Santa Barbara L 58-67 15%     1 - 4 -5.7 -12.7 +6.6
  Dec 07, 2019 201   @ Loyola Marymount L 67-83 22%     1 - 5 -15.8 -8.4 -6.8
  Dec 10, 2019 245   @ Louisiana Monroe W 66-61 29%     2 - 5 +3.1 -3.5 +7.0
  Dec 17, 2019 27   @ Marquette L 72-93 3%     2 - 6 -5.8 -1.4 -2.2
  Dec 23, 2019 8   @ Dayton L 53-81 2%     2 - 7 -9.0 -8.5 -2.8
  Jan 04, 2020 338   Alabama A&M W 70-60 76%     3 - 7 1 - 0 -5.3 -14.5 +8.5
  Jan 06, 2020 343   Alabama St. W 68-63 80%     4 - 7 2 - 0 -11.5 -16.4 +4.5
  Jan 11, 2020 335   @ Southern W 61-56 53%     5 - 7 3 - 0 -3.6 -10.4 +7.3
  Jan 13, 2020 332   @ Alcorn St. L 69-87 51%     5 - 8 3 - 1 -25.9 -11.0 -14.2
  Jan 18, 2020 223   Prairie View L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 20, 2020 263   Texas Southern W 78-77 53%    
  Jan 25, 2020 327   @ Jackson St. L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 01, 2020 344   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 65-62 61%    
  Feb 03, 2020 351   @ Mississippi Valley W 84-75 80%    
  Feb 08, 2020 335   Southern W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 10, 2020 332   Alcorn St. W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 15, 2020 223   @ Prairie View L 68-75 26%    
  Feb 17, 2020 263   @ Texas Southern L 75-80 33%    
  Feb 22, 2020 327   Jackson St. W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 29, 2020 344   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 68-59 80%    
  Mar 02, 2020 351   Mississippi Valley W 87-72 92%    
  Mar 05, 2020 338   @ Alabama A&M W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 07, 2020 343   @ Alabama St. W 70-67 60%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.1 6.9 5.1 1.8 0.3 21.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.4 8.8 7.9 3.2 0.3 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.0 9.5 6.8 1.8 0.1 22.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.9 4.2 0.7 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 4.8 9.4 14.2 17.6 18.1 14.9 10.2 5.4 1.8 0.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
15-3 94.5% 5.1    4.2 0.9
14-4 67.5% 6.9    4.1 2.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 34.4% 5.1    2.0 2.3 0.8 0.1
12-6 10.4% 1.9    0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.3% 21.3 12.6 6.4 1.9 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.3% 32.9% 32.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.8% 34.5% 34.5% 15.8 0.1 0.5 1.2
15-3 5.4% 32.2% 32.2% 16.0 0.1 1.7 3.6
14-4 10.2% 24.0% 24.0% 16.0 0.0 2.4 7.8
13-5 14.9% 19.3% 19.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9 12.1
12-6 18.1% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 2.8 15.4
11-7 17.6% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 2.0 15.5
10-8 14.2% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 1.4 12.8
9-9 9.4% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.6 8.8
8-10 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.2 4.6
7-11 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.3
6-12 0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 14.6 85.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.1 3.9 82.4 13.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%