Dayton
Atlantic 10
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#62
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#51
Pace63.5#321
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#106
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.6% 3.7% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 6.6% 6.7% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.9% 37.6% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.7% 22.3% 7.5%
Average Seed 9.2 9.2 10.5
.500 or above 93.5% 94.2% 76.1%
.500 or above in Conference 87.5% 88.1% 72.9%
Conference Champion 24.9% 25.3% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.4%
First Four7.2% 7.3% 3.3%
First Round33.1% 33.7% 17.0%
Second Round15.5% 15.8% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen5.7% 5.8% 1.2%
Elite Eight2.2% 2.3% 0.8%
Final Four0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 24 - 35 - 6
Quad 38 - 313 - 9
Quad 49 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 151   Indiana St. W 86-81 84%     1 - 0 +2.5 +6.3 -4.0
  Nov 16, 2019 296   Charleston Southern W 78-59 96%    
  Nov 19, 2019 198   Nebraska Omaha W 78-65 89%    
  Nov 25, 2019 65   Georgia W 75-74 51%    
  Dec 03, 2019 293   Houston Baptist W 90-71 96%    
  Dec 08, 2019 37   St. Mary's L 62-65 38%    
  Dec 14, 2019 126   Drake W 76-67 79%    
  Dec 17, 2019 145   North Texas W 66-56 80%    
  Dec 21, 2019 35   Colorado L 69-73 38%    
  Dec 23, 2019 253   Grambling St. W 79-63 91%    
  Dec 30, 2019 154   North Florida W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 02, 2020 201   @ La Salle W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 05, 2020 172   @ Saint Joseph's W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 11, 2020 188   Massachusetts W 76-63 87%    
  Jan 14, 2020 42   Virginia Commonwealth W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 17, 2020 108   @ Saint Louis W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 22, 2020 160   St. Bonaventure W 69-58 83%    
  Jan 25, 2020 115   @ Richmond W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 29, 2020 106   @ Duquesne W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 01, 2020 231   Fordham W 70-55 91%    
  Feb 08, 2020 108   Saint Louis W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 11, 2020 92   Rhode Island W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 15, 2020 188   @ Massachusetts W 73-66 71%    
  Feb 18, 2020 42   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 66-72 32%    
  Feb 22, 2020 106   Duquesne W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 25, 2020 149   @ George Mason W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 28, 2020 86   Davidson W 69-64 66%    
  Mar 04, 2020 92   @ Rhode Island L 68-69 48%    
  Mar 07, 2020 224   George Washington W 75-60 89%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.7 4.5 6.9 6.6 3.7 1.2 24.9 1st
2nd 0.3 2.1 6.1 6.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 5.8 4.5 1.3 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.2 4.3 0.8 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 3.5 1.0 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.5 1.3 0.1 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.2 2.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.1 7.0 9.3 11.1 13.4 13.1 12.0 9.7 7.1 3.7 1.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 99.7% 3.7    3.6 0.2
16-2 92.7% 6.6    5.4 1.2 0.0
15-3 71.4% 6.9    4.4 2.2 0.3
14-4 37.2% 4.5    1.7 1.9 0.7 0.1
13-5 13.2% 1.7    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.9% 24.9 16.6 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 100.0% 67.4% 32.6% 3.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.7% 95.9% 52.6% 43.2% 5.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 91.2%
16-2 7.1% 89.0% 39.3% 49.6% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.8 81.8%
15-3 9.7% 76.3% 34.0% 42.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 2.3 64.1%
14-4 12.0% 57.8% 28.3% 29.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 1.3 0.0 5.1 41.2%
13-5 13.1% 41.9% 22.0% 19.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.6 25.5%
12-6 13.4% 25.7% 16.3% 9.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 9.9 11.2%
11-7 11.1% 12.3% 9.2% 3.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.7 3.4%
10-8 9.3% 8.2% 7.1% 1.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5 1.2%
9-9 7.0% 2.8% 2.7% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.8 0.1%
8-10 5.1% 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 12.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.1%
7-11 3.4% 2.0% 2.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-12 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 5.4% 5.4% 14.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 36.9% 19.4% 17.5% 9.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.2 2.2 3.6 5.2 10.1 6.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 63.2 21.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.0 39.6 33.3 18.8 8.3