Dayton
Atlantic 10
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#10
Expected Predictive Rating+17.4#8
Pace68.6#202
Improvement-0.8#219

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#5
First Shot+11.3#1
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#260
Layup/Dunks+6.3#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#41
Freethrows+0.6#128
Improvement-3.1#317

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#50
First Shot+3.9#69
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#57
Layups/Dunks+2.6#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#33
Freethrows+0.1#178
Improvement+2.2#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.9% 2.1% 0.3%
#1 Seed 13.3% 14.1% 3.7%
Top 2 Seed 30.2% 31.7% 11.9%
Top 4 Seed 61.1% 63.2% 36.7%
Top 6 Seed 81.2% 82.8% 62.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.8% 99.0% 96.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.5% 97.8% 94.3%
Average Seed 4.2 4.0 5.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 86.1% 87.7% 66.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 1.6%
First Round98.6% 98.8% 96.2%
Second Round80.8% 81.6% 70.8%
Sweet Sixteen48.4% 49.2% 38.6%
Elite Eight25.0% 25.5% 18.7%
Final Four12.3% 12.6% 9.1%
Championship Game5.8% 5.9% 4.4%
National Champion2.6% 2.6% 1.8%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Home) - 92.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 13 - 3
Quad 27 - 111 - 4
Quad 310 - 021 - 5
Quad 48 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 119   Indiana St. W 86-81 92%     1 - 0 +5.3 +8.3 -3.2
  Nov 16, 2019 286   Charleston Southern W 90-61 98%     2 - 0 +18.8 +11.3 +7.3
  Nov 19, 2019 213   Nebraska Omaha W 93-68 97%     3 - 0 +19.0 +15.7 +3.7
  Nov 25, 2019 73   Georgia W 80-61 79%     4 - 0 +26.2 +7.6 +18.1
  Nov 26, 2019 59   Virginia Tech W 89-62 75%     5 - 0 +35.4 +25.0 +11.8
  Nov 27, 2019 1   Kansas L 84-90 OT 30%     5 - 1 +15.0 +14.4 +1.2
  Dec 03, 2019 344   Houston Baptist W 99-68 99%     6 - 1 +13.2 -1.0 +11.2
  Dec 08, 2019 37   St. Mary's W 78-68 66%     7 - 1 +21.4 +15.1 +7.2
  Dec 14, 2019 155   Drake W 78-47 94%     8 - 1 +28.7 +5.4 +23.7
  Dec 17, 2019 93   North Texas W 71-58 88%     9 - 1 +15.9 +2.8 +13.7
  Dec 21, 2019 25   Colorado L 76-78 OT 61%     9 - 2 +10.6 +8.9 +1.8
  Dec 23, 2019 301   Grambling St. W 81-53 98%     10 - 2 +16.7 +11.8 +7.3
  Dec 30, 2019 172   North Florida W 77-59 95%     11 - 2 +15.0 -3.4 +18.0
  Jan 02, 2020 174   @ La Salle W 84-58 89%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +28.4 +13.8 +14.3
  Jan 05, 2020 241   @ Saint Joseph's W 80-67 94%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +11.4 +3.5 +7.7
  Jan 11, 2020 201   Massachusetts W 88-60 96%     14 - 2 3 - 0 +22.5 +5.3 +15.3
  Jan 14, 2020 45   Virginia Commonwealth W 79-65 77%     15 - 2 4 - 0 +21.7 +10.7 +10.7
  Jan 17, 2020 91   @ Saint Louis W 78-76 OT 74%     16 - 2 5 - 0 +10.8 +5.4 +5.2
  Jan 22, 2020 116   St. Bonaventure W 75-60 92%    
  Jan 25, 2020 80   @ Richmond W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 29, 2020 90   @ Duquesne W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 01, 2020 265   Fordham W 75-51 99%    
  Feb 08, 2020 91   Saint Louis W 75-63 88%    
  Feb 11, 2020 72   Rhode Island W 78-67 85%    
  Feb 15, 2020 201   @ Massachusetts W 81-66 92%    
  Feb 18, 2020 45   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 22, 2020 90   Duquesne W 76-64 88%    
  Feb 25, 2020 153   @ George Mason W 77-65 86%    
  Feb 28, 2020 99   Davidson W 77-63 90%    
  Mar 04, 2020 72   @ Rhode Island W 75-70 68%    
  Mar 07, 2020 190   George Washington W 80-60 97%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 16 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 5.1 17.5 26.6 25.1 11.3 86.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 4.4 2.6 0.2 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.8 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.5 10.3 20.2 26.9 25.1 11.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 11.3    11.3
17-1 100.0% 25.1    25.0 0.1
16-2 99.2% 26.6    24.4 2.2 0.0
15-3 86.8% 17.5    11.2 5.7 0.7 0.0
14-4 49.1% 5.1    1.4 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 11.1% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 86.1% 86.1 73.2 10.3 2.1 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 11.3% 99.9% 63.5% 36.4% 1.7 5.6 4.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.9%
17-1 25.1% 99.9% 58.6% 41.3% 2.5 6.0 8.3 5.7 3.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-2 26.9% 99.8% 53.3% 46.5% 3.8 1.5 4.1 5.5 7.9 4.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
15-3 20.2% 99.1% 48.7% 50.4% 5.4 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.3 4.7 4.0 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.2%
14-4 10.3% 97.5% 43.0% 54.4% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 95.6%
13-5 4.5% 93.5% 39.9% 53.6% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.3 89.2%
12-6 1.4% 84.4% 30.8% 53.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 77.5%
11-7 0.4% 70.1% 21.3% 48.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 61.9%
10-8 0.1% 38.5% 11.5% 26.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.4%
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.8% 52.7% 46.1% 4.2 13.3 16.9 14.0 16.9 11.5 8.6 6.7 4.1 3.7 2.1 0.9 0.1 1.2 97.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.2% 100.0% 1.5 60.6 33.4 5.5 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 99.9% 2.0 33.4 41.5 17.5 6.3 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6% 99.9% 2.1 31.7 38.5 20.1 8.3 1.4