Marquette
Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#27
Expected Predictive Rating+12.3#34
Pace76.9#32
Improvement+0.8#150

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#30
First Shot+4.8#48
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#56
Layup/Dunks-3.3#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#31
Freethrows+3.4#10
Improvement+1.6#85

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#46
First Shot+6.2#33
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#218
Layups/Dunks-0.2#182
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#11
Freethrows+0.9#132
Improvement-0.8#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.5% 4.2% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 13.6% 20.9% 7.4%
Top 6 Seed 34.4% 46.7% 24.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.8% 89.3% 71.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.5% 87.8% 69.2%
Average Seed 7.0 6.4 7.6
.500 or above 97.9% 99.4% 96.6%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 76.9% 51.3%
Conference Champion 2.6% 4.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.2% 4.6%
First Four5.7% 3.7% 7.3%
First Round77.2% 87.4% 68.4%
Second Round47.4% 56.3% 39.9%
Sweet Sixteen20.1% 25.5% 15.5%
Elite Eight8.4% 10.6% 6.5%
Final Four3.2% 4.0% 2.5%
Championship Game1.2% 1.5% 0.8%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 46.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 9
Quad 26 - 212 - 11
Quad 32 - 115 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 271   Loyola Maryland W 88-53 97%     1 - 0 +26.0 +1.9 +21.1
  Nov 13, 2019 17   Purdue W 65-55 54%     2 - 0 +21.1 +7.0 +15.2
  Nov 17, 2019 25   @ Wisconsin L 61-77 35%     2 - 1 +0.1 -1.2 +1.0
  Nov 23, 2019 212   Robert Morris W 66-62 95%     3 - 1 -2.0 -11.5 +9.4
  Nov 28, 2019 102   Davidson W 73-63 77%     4 - 1 +14.7 -3.7 +17.7
  Nov 29, 2019 62   USC W 101-79 65%     5 - 1 +30.3 +14.1 +11.9
  Dec 01, 2019 7   Maryland L 63-84 35%     5 - 2 -4.9 -0.8 -3.5
  Dec 04, 2019 239   Jacksonville W 75-56 95%     6 - 2 +11.7 +0.0 +11.0
  Dec 07, 2019 95   @ Kansas St. W 73-65 66%     7 - 2 +16.0 +5.8 +10.0
  Dec 17, 2019 293   Grambling St. W 93-72 97%     8 - 2 +10.4 +6.7 +1.5
  Dec 20, 2019 156   North Dakota St. W 82-68 90%     9 - 2 +11.8 +6.0 +5.7
  Dec 28, 2019 307   Central Arkansas W 106-54 98%     10 - 2 +40.1 +15.4 +19.9
  Jan 01, 2020 31   @ Creighton L 75-92 40%     10 - 3 0 - 1 -2.2 +0.8 -1.4
  Jan 04, 2020 23   Villanova W 71-60 57%     11 - 3 1 - 1 +21.5 -1.0 +22.1
  Jan 07, 2020 67   Providence L 80-81 OT 75%     11 - 4 1 - 2 +4.1 +5.7 -1.6
  Jan 11, 2020 9   @ Seton Hall L 55-69 27%     11 - 5 1 - 3 +4.8 -4.4 +8.5
  Jan 15, 2020 53   Xavier W 85-65 72%     12 - 5 2 - 3 +26.4 +17.2 +9.4
  Jan 18, 2020 44   @ Georgetown L 81-82 46%    
  Jan 21, 2020 78   St. John's W 80-72 79%    
  Jan 24, 2020 12   @ Butler L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 29, 2020 53   @ Xavier W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 01, 2020 73   DePaul W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 09, 2020 12   Butler W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 12, 2020 23   @ Villanova L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 18, 2020 31   Creighton W 78-75 63%    
  Feb 22, 2020 67   @ Providence W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 26, 2020 44   Georgetown W 84-79 67%    
  Feb 29, 2020 9   Seton Hall L 73-74 48%    
  Mar 03, 2020 73   @ DePaul W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 07, 2020 78   @ St. John's W 77-75 59%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.9 7.0 3.5 0.4 0.0 15.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 5.0 8.9 4.2 0.3 0.0 19.0 4th
5th 0.3 4.3 8.7 4.1 0.3 0.0 17.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 7.3 3.9 0.4 0.0 14.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.5 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.2 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 6.4 11.1 15.9 18.6 17.7 13.8 8.3 3.4 1.1 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 88.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 62.0% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 31.2% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 7.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.1% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 2.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.4% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 3.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 100.0%
12-6 8.3% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 4.2 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.8 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 13.8% 99.9% 15.0% 84.9% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 3.9 3.6 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 17.7% 99.3% 12.1% 87.2% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 4.4 5.2 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.2%
9-9 18.6% 96.1% 8.8% 87.3% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.9 4.9 4.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.7 95.7%
8-10 15.9% 78.2% 5.1% 73.1% 9.6 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.8 3.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 3.5 77.1%
7-11 11.1% 40.1% 3.8% 36.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.2 0.7 0.0 6.7 37.8%
6-12 6.4% 11.1% 2.5% 8.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 5.7 8.8%
5-13 2.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.9%
4-14 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 79.8% 10.0% 69.8% 7.0 0.6 1.9 4.3 6.8 9.5 11.3 12.6 10.3 8.3 6.5 6.3 1.3 0.0 20.2 77.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 65.5 34.5