Marquette
Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#26
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#30
Pace71.4#128
Improvement-2.0#340

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#28
First Shot+9.7#5
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#302
Layup/Dunks-2.1#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#14
Freethrows+2.2#68
Improvement-0.7#281

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#46
First Shot+7.5#16
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#268
Layups/Dunks+5.7#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#107
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#204
Freethrows+1.0#132
Improvement-1.3#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.3% 3.3% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 8.6% 8.8% 1.3%
Top 4 Seed 22.5% 22.8% 5.3%
Top 6 Seed 37.8% 38.2% 15.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.9% 71.4% 42.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.6% 67.1% 38.9%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 7.5
.500 or above 88.5% 88.9% 65.6%
.500 or above in Conference 70.7% 71.0% 50.4%
Conference Champion 15.8% 16.0% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 4.4% 9.6%
First Four3.7% 3.7% 3.0%
First Round69.2% 69.7% 41.6%
Second Round46.4% 46.8% 22.8%
Sweet Sixteen22.5% 22.7% 8.9%
Elite Eight10.6% 10.7% 2.9%
Final Four4.7% 4.7% 0.9%
Championship Game2.1% 2.1% 0.2%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.1%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 8
Quad 26 - 211 - 10
Quad 33 - 014 - 11
Quad 45 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 222   Loyola Maryland W 88-53 95%     1 - 0 +28.7 +3.3 +22.4
  Nov 13, 2019 17   Purdue W 65-55 57%     2 - 0 +21.0 +3.0 +19.0
  Nov 17, 2019 29   @ Wisconsin L 61-77 39%     2 - 1 -0.4 -0.9 +0.2
  Nov 23, 2019 283   Robert Morris W 79-57 98%    
  Nov 28, 2019 63   Davidson W 72-68 64%    
  Dec 04, 2019 273   Jacksonville W 79-57 98%    
  Dec 07, 2019 60   @ Kansas St. W 65-64 53%    
  Dec 17, 2019 270   Grambling St. W 85-64 97%    
  Dec 20, 2019 167   North Dakota St. W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 28, 2019 309   Central Arkansas W 90-65 99%    
  Jan 01, 2020 44   @ Creighton L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 04, 2020 14   Villanova L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 07, 2020 33   Providence W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 11, 2020 15   @ Seton Hall L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 15, 2020 30   Xavier W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 18, 2020 77   @ Georgetown W 81-78 60%    
  Jan 21, 2020 84   St. John's W 83-73 80%    
  Jan 24, 2020 38   @ Butler L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 29, 2020 30   @ Xavier L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 01, 2020 76   DePaul W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 09, 2020 38   Butler W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 12, 2020 14   @ Villanova L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 18, 2020 44   Creighton W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 22, 2020 33   @ Providence L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 26, 2020 77   Georgetown W 84-75 78%    
  Feb 29, 2020 15   Seton Hall W 75-74 54%    
  Mar 03, 2020 76   @ DePaul W 76-73 60%    
  Mar 07, 2020 84   @ St. John's W 80-76 62%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 4.4 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.2 15.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.1 4.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.7 4.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.9 3.8 0.8 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 3.6 0.5 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 3.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.4 7.5 9.5 11.4 12.6 12.2 11.3 9.0 6.6 4.2 2.2 0.9 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 97.9% 2.1    2.0 0.2
15-3 88.4% 3.8    3.1 0.7 0.0
14-4 66.1% 4.4    2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 35.1% 3.2    1.2 1.5 0.5 0.1
12-6 10.0% 1.1    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 10.1 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 55.4% 44.6% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 48.6% 51.4% 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.2% 100.0% 43.0% 57.0% 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.2% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 2.3 0.9 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.6% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 3.2 0.5 1.6 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.0% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 4.3 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.3% 99.6% 17.5% 82.1% 5.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 2.6 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
11-7 12.2% 97.4% 12.7% 84.7% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 97.1%
10-8 12.6% 90.7% 9.3% 81.4% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.1 1.2 89.8%
9-9 11.4% 71.7% 6.2% 65.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.6 0.3 3.2 69.8%
8-10 9.5% 40.1% 4.2% 36.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.7 37.5%
7-11 7.5% 12.8% 1.9% 10.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.5 11.1%
6-12 5.4% 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2 1.5%
5-13 3.4% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0%
4-14 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 1.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 70.9% 12.9% 58.0% 6.2 3.3 5.4 6.8 7.1 7.7 7.6 7.9 7.6 6.7 5.6 4.7 0.7 0.0 29.1 66.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.2 8.8