TCU
Big 12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#57
Expected Predictive Rating+9.6#55
Pace65.3#283
Improvement-0.4#206

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#105
First Shot-0.6#198
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#16
Layup/Dunks+1.0#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#50
Freethrows-3.1#338
Improvement+0.6#143

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#41
First Shot+3.7#75
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#18
Layups/Dunks-0.5#198
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
Freethrows+2.4#41
Improvement-1.1#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 4.0% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.4% 39.7% 19.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.3% 38.8% 18.1%
Average Seed 9.2 8.9 9.5
.500 or above 77.8% 92.0% 71.7%
.500 or above in Conference 44.0% 48.6% 42.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.3% 2.1%
First Four5.6% 7.0% 4.9%
First Round22.3% 35.7% 16.5%
Second Round9.7% 15.9% 7.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 4.3% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.6% 0.8%
Final Four0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 30.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 10
Quad 24 - 48 - 14
Quad 34 - 012 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2019 263   Louisiana W 98-65 94%     1 - 0 +24.4 +14.8 +7.7
  Nov 18, 2019 164   Air Force W 65-54 85%     2 - 0 +8.2 -7.0 +16.3
  Nov 21, 2019 115   UC Irvine W 59-58 78%     3 - 0 +1.5 -9.6 +11.1
  Nov 24, 2019 70   Clemson L 60-62 OT 54%     3 - 1 +5.4 -10.8 +16.3
  Nov 26, 2019 279   Wyoming W 64-47 91%     4 - 1 +10.4 -1.8 +14.2
  Dec 03, 2019 209   Illinois St. W 81-69 91%     5 - 1 +6.0 +3.2 +2.4
  Dec 06, 2019 58   USC L 78-80 50%     5 - 2 +6.4 +7.3 -0.7
  Dec 11, 2019 133   Winthrop W 70-60 81%     6 - 2 +9.4 -5.4 +14.6
  Dec 14, 2019 276   Lamar W 79-50 94%     7 - 2 +19.7 +1.8 +17.3
  Dec 22, 2019 53   Xavier L 59-67 57%     7 - 3 -1.2 -5.5 +4.0
  Dec 30, 2019 153   George Mason W 87-53 84%     8 - 3 +31.9 +25.1 +11.5
  Jan 04, 2020 54   Iowa St. W 81-79 OT 59%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +8.2 +2.4 +5.6
  Jan 07, 2020 83   @ Kansas St. W 59-57 46%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +11.6 -2.6 +14.3
  Jan 11, 2020 69   Oklahoma St. W 52-40 65%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +16.5 -9.4 +27.6
  Jan 14, 2020 6   @ West Virginia L 49-81 15%     11 - 4 3 - 1 -12.5 -7.4 -7.8
  Jan 18, 2020 46   @ Oklahoma L 63-83 32%     11 - 5 3 - 2 -6.6 +1.3 -9.4
  Jan 21, 2020 22   Texas Tech W 65-54 43%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +21.3 +6.5 +15.7
  Jan 25, 2020 40   @ Arkansas L 64-69 30%    
  Jan 29, 2020 64   Texas W 64-61 62%    
  Feb 01, 2020 5   @ Baylor L 57-68 14%    
  Feb 05, 2020 69   @ Oklahoma St. L 63-65 43%    
  Feb 08, 2020 1   Kansas L 60-70 18%    
  Feb 10, 2020 22   @ Texas Tech L 58-66 24%    
  Feb 15, 2020 83   Kansas St. W 65-60 67%    
  Feb 19, 2020 64   @ Texas L 61-64 41%    
  Feb 22, 2020 6   West Virginia L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 25, 2020 54   @ Iowa St. L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 29, 2020 5   Baylor L 60-66 31%    
  Mar 04, 2020 1   @ Kansas L 57-73 7%    
  Mar 07, 2020 46   Oklahoma W 68-67 55%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.0 7.8 3.8 0.6 0.0 19.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 8.7 10.0 3.5 0.3 24.1 5th
6th 1.0 7.5 9.7 2.7 0.2 21.1 6th
7th 0.4 4.8 7.9 2.1 0.2 15.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 4.3 1.3 0.1 7.6 8th
9th 0.4 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.6 4.1 11.0 18.4 21.9 19.1 13.4 7.2 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 61.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
13-5 1.0% 100.0% 1.9% 98.1% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 3.0% 95.4% 3.0% 92.4% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.2%
11-7 7.2% 83.6% 3.5% 80.1% 8.7 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.2 83.0%
10-8 13.4% 59.5% 1.8% 57.7% 9.6 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.1 2.2 0.2 5.4 58.8%
9-9 19.1% 28.9% 1.5% 27.4% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.6 0.5 13.6 27.8%
8-10 21.9% 6.4% 1.1% 5.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 20.5 5.4%
7-11 18.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 18.2 0.8%
6-12 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 11.0
5-13 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 4.0
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.4% 1.3% 24.0% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.9 4.5 5.0 6.4 1.3 74.7 24.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%