North Dakota St.
Summit League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#151
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#144
Pace64.2#310
Improvement+1.8#106

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#130
First Shot+3.8#65
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#306
Layup/Dunks-3.4#302
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.3#7
Freethrows+0.2#160
Improvement+1.4#92

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#190
First Shot-3.2#277
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#24
Layups/Dunks-1.1#227
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#133
Freethrows+1.4#97
Improvement+0.4#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.8% 22.2% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 96.8% 98.4% 91.6%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 97.5% 87.9%
Conference Champion 29.6% 33.9% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round20.6% 22.0% 15.8%
Second Round1.5% 1.7% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 8
Quad 415 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 82   @ Kansas St. L 54-67 21%     0 - 1 -3.5 -7.6 +3.1
  Nov 11, 2019 320   Cal Poly W 74-67 89%     1 - 1 -5.4 +4.2 -9.0
  Nov 15, 2019 261   UT Rio Grande Valley W 76-70 73%     2 - 1 +0.5 +0.0 +0.4
  Nov 16, 2019 293   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 57-45 71%     3 - 1 +7.2 -4.4 +13.9
  Nov 17, 2019 136   Stony Brook L 57-64 46%     3 - 2 -5.2 -9.5 +3.9
  Nov 23, 2019 274   Utah Valley L 62-68 83%     3 - 3 -15.2 -13.2 -2.1
  Nov 26, 2019 309   @ Idaho W 70-53 76%     4 - 3 +10.7 +0.0 +11.5
  Dec 03, 2019 118   @ Indiana St. L 60-71 31%     4 - 4 -5.0 -7.7 +2.1
  Dec 07, 2019 66   East Tennessee St. W 78-68 35%     5 - 4 +15.0 +11.9 +3.6
  Dec 11, 2019 270   @ Cal St. Northridge W 71-62 66%     6 - 4 +5.7 -0.6 +7.0
  Dec 16, 2019 248   Montana St. W 79-65 79%     7 - 4 +6.2 +6.3 +0.5
  Dec 20, 2019 27   @ Marquette L 68-82 9%     7 - 5 +1.4 +1.2 +0.3
  Dec 29, 2019 319   @ Denver W 66-55 77%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +4.3 -9.6 +13.9
  Jan 02, 2020 332   Western Illinois W 94-74 90%     9 - 5 2 - 0 +6.6 +8.8 -2.8
  Jan 09, 2020 125   @ Oral Roberts L 73-79 33%     9 - 6 2 - 1 -0.5 +1.6 -2.3
  Jan 15, 2020 205   South Dakota W 72-70 74%     10 - 6 3 - 1 -3.6 -0.3 -3.2
  Jan 19, 2020 236   North Dakota W 75-67 78%    
  Jan 22, 2020 134   @ South Dakota St. L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 25, 2020 319   Denver W 76-63 89%    
  Jan 30, 2020 332   @ Western Illinois W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 01, 2020 259   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 05, 2020 211   @ Nebraska Omaha W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 08, 2020 125   Oral Roberts W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 14, 2020 259   Purdue Fort Wayne W 73-64 81%    
  Feb 19, 2020 205   @ South Dakota W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 22, 2020 236   @ North Dakota W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 27, 2020 134   South Dakota St. W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 29, 2020 211   Nebraska Omaha W 75-68 74%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.3 9.6 10.5 4.8 1.1 29.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 4.4 11.1 7.4 0.9 24.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 5.0 11.4 6.3 0.7 23.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.0 6.7 2.7 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.1 1.2 0.1 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.3 7.3 13.3 18.8 20.9 17.7 11.5 4.8 1.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1
14-2 100.0% 4.8    4.6 0.2
13-3 91.9% 10.5    7.2 3.2 0.2
12-4 54.3% 9.6    3.6 4.7 1.4 0.0
11-5 15.8% 3.3    0.5 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 16.8 9.5 2.9 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 1.1% 41.8% 41.8% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6
14-2 4.8% 37.4% 37.4% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.0
13-3 11.5% 32.6% 32.6% 13.9 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.8 0.0 7.7
12-4 17.7% 27.3% 27.3% 14.4 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.1 0.2 12.9
11-5 20.9% 21.1% 21.1% 14.8 0.1 1.2 2.6 0.5 16.5
10-6 18.8% 15.1% 15.1% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.7 16.0
9-7 13.3% 12.6% 12.6% 15.4 0.1 0.9 0.7 11.6
8-8 7.3% 10.6% 10.6% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 6.5
7-9 3.3% 7.2% 7.2% 15.8 0.0 0.2 3.1
6-10 1.1% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.0
5-11 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.6 8.5 2.8 79.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.6 1.6 46.4 42.0 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%