Sam Houston St.
Southland
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#185
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#248
Pace68.3#221
Improvement+0.4#115

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#215
First Shot+1.3#129
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#293
Layup/Dunks+1.7#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#148
Freethrows-1.3#243
Improvement+0.3#126

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#169
First Shot-6.0#328
After Offensive Rebounds+5.8#6
Layups/Dunks+3.7#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#231
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#246
Freethrows-6.7#349
Improvement+0.1#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.5% 34.5% 24.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.5 15.1
.500 or above 78.8% 91.6% 76.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.6% 95.1% 89.6%
Conference Champion 34.4% 45.4% 31.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four4.7% 2.7% 5.1%
First Round24.4% 33.1% 22.4%
Second Round1.4% 2.4% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Away) - 18.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 416 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 55   @ Mississippi St. L 58-67 11%     0 - 1 +3.2 -6.4 +9.2
  Nov 16, 2019 125   @ Central Michigan L 77-84 26%     0 - 2 -1.7 -8.1 +7.4
  Nov 23, 2019 98   @ San Francisco L 66-75 18%    
  Nov 26, 2019 221   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 66-67 45%    
  Nov 30, 2019 344   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 73-57 92%    
  Dec 03, 2019 282   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 70-68 58%    
  Dec 08, 2019 88   Louisiana Tech L 66-70 36%    
  Dec 18, 2019 345   Northwestern St. W 77-61 92%    
  Dec 21, 2019 262   New Orleans W 73-66 73%    
  Dec 29, 2019 210   @ Rice L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 02, 2020 301   @ McNeese St. W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 04, 2020 229   Nicholls St. W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 08, 2020 317   SE Louisiana W 75-63 85%    
  Jan 11, 2020 308   @ Central Arkansas W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 15, 2020 256   @ Lamar W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 18, 2020 293   @ Houston Baptist W 83-80 61%    
  Jan 22, 2020 287   Abilene Christian W 70-62 77%    
  Jan 29, 2020 300   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68-58 80%    
  Feb 01, 2020 234   Stephen F. Austin W 78-72 68%    
  Feb 05, 2020 346   @ Incarnate Word W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 08, 2020 229   @ Nicholls St. L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 12, 2020 317   @ SE Louisiana W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 15, 2020 308   Central Arkansas W 79-68 82%    
  Feb 19, 2020 256   Lamar W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 22, 2020 293   Houston Baptist W 86-77 79%    
  Feb 26, 2020 287   @ Abilene Christian W 67-65 58%    
  Mar 04, 2020 300   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 65-61 63%    
  Mar 07, 2020 234   @ Stephen F. Austin L 74-75 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.6 8.1 8.7 6.5 3.6 1.2 34.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 6.0 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.6 4.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.8 1.1 0.1 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.8 2.7 0.9 0.1 7.3 5th
6th 0.4 1.8 2.4 0.8 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.4 4.0 5.5 7.3 9.2 11.6 11.5 12.5 11.6 10.0 6.7 3.6 1.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
19-1 99.5% 3.6    3.5 0.0
18-2 97.6% 6.5    6.0 0.4
17-3 87.2% 8.7    6.8 1.8 0.1
16-4 70.0% 8.1    4.9 2.8 0.4 0.0
15-5 36.4% 4.6    1.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 12.3% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.4% 34.4 24.5 7.9 1.5 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.2% 78.1% 77.4% 0.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 3.0%
19-1 3.6% 61.0% 61.0% 13.7 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.4
18-2 6.7% 56.2% 56.2% 14.2 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.2 2.9
17-3 10.0% 49.6% 49.6% 14.7 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.3 0.8 5.0
16-4 11.6% 41.1% 41.1% 15.2 0.1 0.6 2.2 1.8 6.8
15-5 12.5% 31.2% 31.2% 15.5 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 8.6
14-6 11.5% 23.1% 23.1% 15.7 0.1 0.7 1.9 8.9
13-7 11.6% 16.1% 16.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 9.7
12-8 9.2% 8.1% 8.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 8.4
11-9 7.3% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 6.8
10-10 5.5% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.2 5.3
9-11 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.0
8-12 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4
7-13 1.5% 1.5
6-14 0.9% 0.9
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 26.5% 26.4% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.3 8.5 9.9 73.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.6 11.9 11.9 28.6 35.7 11.9