Sam Houston St.
Southland
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#178
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#171
Pace74.1#63
Improvement-0.4#198

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#191
First Shot+1.0#141
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#287
Layup/Dunks-3.0#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#32
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#138
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement+0.5#142

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#171
First Shot-1.1#192
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#108
Layups/Dunks+2.2#88
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#276
Freethrows-2.6#314
Improvement-0.9#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.9% 23.3% 15.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 99.2% 99.8% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.2%
Conference Champion 19.1% 21.7% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 1.4%
First Round21.5% 23.0% 14.7%
Second Round1.3% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 81.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 34 - 6
Quad 414 - 519 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 41   @ Mississippi St. L 58-67 9%     0 - 1 +4.8 -6.9 +11.3
  Nov 16, 2019 181   @ Central Michigan L 77-84 39%     0 - 2 -4.9 -8.1 +4.2
  Nov 23, 2019 100   @ San Francisco L 81-90 21%     0 - 3 -1.3 +3.5 -4.2
  Nov 26, 2019 234   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-65 52%     1 - 3 +7.8 -1.3 +8.9
  Dec 03, 2019 253   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 86-90 2OT 56%     1 - 4 -6.3 -9.4 +4.1
  Dec 08, 2019 82   Louisiana Tech W 71-68 33%     2 - 4 +6.8 -5.7 +12.2
  Dec 18, 2019 330   Northwestern St. W 92-79 88%     3 - 4 1 - 0 -0.6 +5.5 -7.2
  Dec 21, 2019 323   New Orleans W 87-79 87%     4 - 4 2 - 0 -4.7 +0.6 -5.8
  Dec 29, 2019 245   @ Rice W 75-61 55%     5 - 4 +12.1 -0.8 +13.0
  Jan 02, 2020 262   @ McNeese St. W 94-75 57%     6 - 4 3 - 0 +16.4 +11.1 +4.1
  Jan 04, 2020 212   Nicholls St. L 58-70 70%     6 - 5 3 - 1 -18.1 -10.9 -8.2
  Jan 08, 2020 328   SE Louisiana W 67-62 88%     7 - 5 4 - 1 -8.3 -13.9 +5.4
  Jan 11, 2020 306   @ Central Arkansas L 82-89 68%     7 - 6 4 - 2 -12.7 -2.6 -9.5
  Jan 15, 2020 278   @ Lamar W 80-75 OT 61%     8 - 6 5 - 2 +1.3 -6.4 +6.9
  Jan 18, 2020 344   @ Houston Baptist W 95-75 84%     9 - 6 6 - 2 +8.4 -3.1 +9.3
  Jan 22, 2020 210   Abilene Christian W 82-76 OT 70%     10 - 6 7 - 2 +0.0 -0.1 -0.5
  Jan 29, 2020 290   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71-62 82%    
  Feb 01, 2020 138   Stephen F. Austin W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 05, 2020 347   @ Incarnate Word W 78-64 89%    
  Feb 08, 2020 212   @ Nicholls St. L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 12, 2020 328   @ SE Louisiana W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 15, 2020 306   Central Arkansas W 85-74 84%    
  Feb 19, 2020 278   Lamar W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 22, 2020 344   Houston Baptist W 100-83 94%    
  Feb 26, 2020 210   @ Abilene Christian L 69-70 47%    
  Mar 04, 2020 290   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-65 63%    
  Mar 07, 2020 138   @ Stephen F. Austin L 71-76 31%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.2 8.2 7.0 1.5 19.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 5.8 14.3 8.9 0.6 30.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.9 10.7 6.2 0.4 22.8 3rd
4th 0.6 3.2 7.4 5.6 0.6 0.0 17.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 3.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 1.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 7.7 15.5 22.7 23.3 17.4 7.6 1.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-3 91.9% 7.0    4.9 2.1 0.0
16-4 46.8% 8.2    2.7 4.0 1.4 0.1
15-5 9.5% 2.2    0.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.1% 19.1 9.5 7.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.5% 44.2% 44.2% 13.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.9
17-3 7.6% 38.6% 38.6% 14.0 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.0 4.7
16-4 17.4% 35.8% 35.8% 14.5 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.1 0.3 11.2
15-5 23.3% 24.3% 24.3% 14.9 0.1 1.3 3.3 1.0 17.6
14-6 22.7% 17.3% 17.3% 15.2 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.1 18.7
13-7 15.5% 10.9% 10.9% 15.4 0.1 0.8 0.8 13.8
12-8 7.7% 6.6% 6.6% 15.7 0.1 0.4 7.2
11-9 3.2% 8.4% 8.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.9
10-10 0.9% 3.3% 3.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.9
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 14.7 0.2 1.6 5.9 10.5 3.8 78.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 13.0 19.1 60.3 20.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%