Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#303
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#278
Pace70.0#160
Improvement+0.4#171

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#104
First Shot+1.8#118
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#120
Layup/Dunks-1.4#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#92
Freethrows+0.7#117
Improvement-3.8#337

Defense
Total Defense-10.9#350
First Shot-7.6#346
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#350
Layups/Dunks-4.3#324
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#352
Freethrows+1.3#102
Improvement+4.2#12
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 1.1% 3.5% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 20.5% 39.6% 15.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.0% 3.4% 10.5%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Away) - 22.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 48 - 89 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 66   East Tennessee St. L 75-92 11%     0 - 1 -12.0 +1.4 -12.6
  Nov 13, 2019 332   @ Western Illinois W 98-91 47%     1 - 1 -0.8 +14.7 -15.7
  Nov 16, 2019 42   @ Wichita St. L 62-103 3%     1 - 2 -27.4 -3.3 -22.5
  Nov 19, 2019 57   @ Northern Iowa L 67-87 4%     1 - 3 -8.4 +7.9 -19.3
  Nov 26, 2019 226   Gardner-Webb L 64-81 32%     1 - 4 -20.7 -5.2 -17.2
  Nov 27, 2019 180   Boston University W 76-73 23%     2 - 4 +2.3 +7.6 -5.0
  Dec 06, 2019 187   @ Central Michigan L 75-84 17%     2 - 5 -7.3 +6.6 -14.6
  Dec 14, 2019 279   @ UNC Asheville L 72-91 33%     2 - 6 -22.8 -4.1 -18.7
  Dec 18, 2019 5   Baylor L 63-91 2%     2 - 7 -10.4 -1.8 -7.9
  Jan 02, 2020 130   @ Murray St. L 76-89 11%     2 - 8 0 - 1 -7.9 -2.0 -4.8
  Jan 04, 2020 172   @ Austin Peay L 63-82 15%     2 - 9 0 - 2 -16.4 -10.8 -6.0
  Jan 09, 2020 247   Tennessee St. W 87-74 47%     3 - 9 1 - 2 +5.3 +2.4 +2.0
  Jan 11, 2020 88   Belmont L 78-85 14%     3 - 10 1 - 3 -3.7 -0.4 -2.7
  Jan 16, 2020 130   Murray St. L 62-84 22%     3 - 11 1 - 4 -22.5 -13.3 -8.8
  Jan 18, 2020 172   Austin Peay L 81-92 30%     3 - 12 1 - 5 -14.0 +4.2 -18.3
  Jan 23, 2020 216   @ Eastern Illinois L 74-82 22%    
  Jan 25, 2020 337   @ SIU Edwardsville W 79-78 54%    
  Jan 30, 2020 311   @ Eastern Kentucky L 83-85 42%    
  Feb 01, 2020 291   @ Morehead St. L 74-78 35%    
  Feb 06, 2020 341   Tennessee Tech W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 08, 2020 233   Jacksonville St. L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 13, 2020 329   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 15, 2020 216   Eastern Illinois L 77-79 43%    
  Feb 20, 2020 341   @ Tennessee Tech W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 22, 2020 233   @ Jacksonville St. L 71-78 25%    
  Feb 27, 2020 337   SIU Edwardsville W 82-75 74%    
  Feb 29, 2020 329   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-75 67%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.4 4.1 5.0 0.8 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.2 3.9 7.6 1.9 0.1 13.7 7th
8th 0.1 3.6 9.7 3.9 0.3 17.5 8th
9th 0.1 3.5 10.3 5.6 0.5 0.0 20.0 9th
10th 0.1 2.2 6.9 4.1 0.3 0.0 13.6 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 3.8 2.6 0.2 0.0 7.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.2 0.2 4.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.1 7.3 13.3 18.3 19.8 16.8 11.6 6.1 2.2 0.6 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.6% 2.8% 2.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.1
10-8 6.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.1
9-9 11.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.5
8-10 16.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.8
7-11 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.8
6-12 18.3% 18.3
5-13 13.3% 13.3
4-14 7.3% 7.3
3-15 3.1% 3.1
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%
Lose Out 0.1%