Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#289
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#221
Pace70.1#167
Improvement-0.8#269

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#82
First Shot+1.2#133
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#63
Layup/Dunks-6.1#329
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#20
Freethrows+0.1#166
Improvement+0.0#155

Defense
Total Defense-10.5#350
First Shot-7.9#344
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#309
Layups/Dunks-5.0#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.7#347
Freethrows+1.9#84
Improvement-0.8#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.0
.500 or above 14.2% 24.9% 9.0%
.500 or above in Conference 35.5% 45.2% 30.7%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 7.6% 13.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Neutral) - 33.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 62 - 11
Quad 48 - 610 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 72   East Tennessee St. L 75-92 15%     0 - 1 -12.7 +0.3 -12.1
  Nov 13, 2019 313   @ Western Illinois W 98-91 50%     1 - 1 +0.2 +14.9 -15.0
  Nov 16, 2019 53   @ Wichita St. L 62-103 5%     1 - 2 -28.6 -5.0 -22.1
  Nov 19, 2019 101   @ Northern Iowa L 67-87 9%     1 - 3 -12.3 +10.0 -25.3
  Nov 26, 2019 199   Gardner-Webb L 74-79 33%    
  Dec 06, 2019 129   @ Central Michigan L 84-96 13%    
  Dec 14, 2019 279   @ UNC Asheville L 77-81 36%    
  Dec 18, 2019 19   Baylor L 72-92 3%    
  Jan 02, 2020 113   @ Murray St. L 74-87 12%    
  Jan 04, 2020 225   @ Austin Peay L 79-85 28%    
  Jan 09, 2020 237   Tennessee St. W 81-80 52%    
  Jan 11, 2020 55   Belmont L 79-92 12%    
  Jan 16, 2020 113   Murray St. L 77-84 27%    
  Jan 18, 2020 225   Austin Peay L 82-83 48%    
  Jan 23, 2020 190   @ Eastern Illinois L 75-83 24%    
  Jan 25, 2020 328   @ SIU Edwardsville W 80-79 54%    
  Jan 30, 2020 264   @ Eastern Kentucky L 86-90 35%    
  Feb 01, 2020 210   @ Morehead St. L 75-82 26%    
  Feb 06, 2020 322   Tennessee Tech W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 08, 2020 226   Jacksonville St. L 78-79 49%    
  Feb 13, 2020 304   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 78-79 47%    
  Feb 15, 2020 190   Eastern Illinois L 78-80 43%    
  Feb 20, 2020 322   @ Tennessee Tech W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 22, 2020 226   @ Jacksonville St. L 75-81 28%    
  Feb 27, 2020 328   SIU Edwardsville W 83-76 73%    
  Feb 29, 2020 304   Southeast Missouri St. W 81-76 66%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.9 1.3 0.2 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.1 1.5 0.2 9.2 5th
6th 0.6 3.7 4.9 1.8 0.2 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.7 5.5 2.2 0.1 11.9 7th
8th 0.3 2.8 5.7 3.0 0.2 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.5 2.9 0.5 11.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.9 2.2 0.5 9.2 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.6 12th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.7 7.9 10.2 11.8 13.3 13.4 10.8 9.4 6.4 4.4 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 94.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 81.3% 0.1    0.1 0.1
15-3 33.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 18.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
13-5 6.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 28.0% 28.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 13.5% 13.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.4% 9.7% 9.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-5 2.4% 6.6% 6.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.2
12-6 4.4% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.3
11-7 6.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.3
10-8 9.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.3
9-9 10.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 10.7
8-10 13.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.4
7-11 13.3% 13.3
6-12 11.8% 11.8
5-13 10.2% 10.2
4-14 7.9% 7.9
3-15 4.7% 4.7
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%