Baylor
Big 12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#19
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#119
Pace76.9#42
Improvement-0.1#183

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#26
First Shot+5.2#58
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#84
Layup/Dunks-2.2#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#17
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#87
Freethrows-0.6#209
Improvement-0.6#272

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#36
First Shot+3.3#86
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#32
Layups/Dunks+4.9#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#108
Freethrows+2.3#66
Improvement+0.5#100
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.1% 4.5% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 9.6% 10.4% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 23.7% 25.3% 10.1%
Top 6 Seed 39.2% 41.6% 19.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.5% 70.0% 45.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 63.6% 66.2% 41.9%
Average Seed 5.8 5.7 6.7
.500 or above 81.6% 84.2% 59.8%
.500 or above in Conference 66.0% 68.2% 47.7%
Conference Champion 11.9% 12.6% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 5.7% 11.8%
First Four2.1% 2.2% 1.2%
First Round66.6% 69.1% 45.0%
Second Round47.3% 49.5% 28.8%
Sweet Sixteen24.3% 25.6% 12.9%
Elite Eight11.8% 12.4% 6.5%
Final Four5.5% 5.7% 3.6%
Championship Game2.4% 2.5% 1.3%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.3%

Next Game: Ohio (Neutral) - 89.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 25 - 211 - 11
Quad 32 - 014 - 12
Quad 44 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 309   Central Arkansas W 105-61 98%     1 - 0 +31.5 +12.7 +13.8
  Nov 08, 2019 60   Washington L 64-67 68%     1 - 1 +5.9 -5.9 +12.0
  Nov 15, 2019 135   Texas St. W 72-63 91%     2 - 1 +7.9 -0.7 +8.5
  Nov 21, 2019 157   Ohio W 81-68 90%    
  Dec 03, 2019 349   Maryland Eastern Shore W 74-40 99.9%   
  Dec 07, 2019 13   Arizona W 76-75 52%    
  Dec 10, 2019 36   Butler W 74-69 67%    
  Dec 18, 2019 289   Tennessee Martin W 92-72 97%    
  Dec 30, 2019 315   Jackson St. W 88-61 99%    
  Jan 04, 2020 23   Texas W 72-69 63%    
  Jan 07, 2020 11   @ Texas Tech L 71-77 31%    
  Jan 11, 2020 4   @ Kansas L 73-82 22%    
  Jan 15, 2020 37   Iowa St. W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 18, 2020 48   @ Oklahoma St. W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 20, 2020 39   Oklahoma W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 25, 2020 30   @ Florida L 66-68 45%    
  Jan 29, 2020 37   @ Iowa St. L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 01, 2020 56   TCU W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 03, 2020 58   @ Kansas St. W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 08, 2020 48   Oklahoma St. W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 10, 2020 23   @ Texas L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 15, 2020 45   West Virginia W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 18, 2020 39   @ Oklahoma L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 22, 2020 4   Kansas L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 25, 2020 58   Kansas St. W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 29, 2020 56   @ TCU W 76-75 55%    
  Mar 02, 2020 11   Texas Tech W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 07, 2020 45   @ West Virginia W 80-79 51%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.3 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 11.9 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 4.6 4.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.8 5.5 4.1 1.2 0.2 14.1 3rd
4th 0.5 3.2 5.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.6 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.6 2.2 0.4 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.0 1.8 0.2 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 3.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 4.3 6.3 8.1 10.4 12.3 12.0 11.2 10.2 8.1 5.9 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 95.5% 1.7    1.6 0.1
15-3 79.3% 3.0    2.3 0.7 0.0
14-4 56.4% 3.3    1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 26.7% 2.2    0.9 0.8 0.4 0.0
12-6 7.5% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 7.5 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 53.5% 46.5% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 47.5% 52.5% 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.8% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.7% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 2.0 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.9% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 2.8 0.8 1.7 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.1% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 3.8 0.3 1.2 2.3 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.2% 99.3% 15.3% 84.0% 5.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-7 11.2% 97.9% 11.0% 86.9% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.6%
10-8 12.0% 90.6% 7.0% 83.5% 7.4 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.5 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.1 89.9%
9-9 12.3% 73.7% 4.3% 69.4% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.2 72.5%
8-10 10.4% 43.1% 3.6% 39.5% 9.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.9 41.0%
7-11 8.1% 16.2% 2.5% 13.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.8 14.1%
6-12 6.3% 3.3% 1.2% 2.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1 2.1%
5-13 4.3% 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.0%
4-14 2.9% 0.7% 0.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 67.5% 10.6% 56.8% 5.8 4.1 5.5 7.1 7.0 7.7 7.9 8.1 7.7 5.3 3.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 32.5 63.6%