Baylor
Big 12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.6#5
Expected Predictive Rating+25.4#1
Pace66.2#265
Improvement+2.6#74

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#15
First Shot+4.4#56
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#8
Layup/Dunks+1.1#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#60
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#141
Freethrows+0.1#165
Improvement+0.5#149

Defense
Total Defense+9.6#7
First Shot+9.0#4
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#121
Layups/Dunks+5.9#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#92
Freethrows+2.6#39
Improvement+2.1#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 16.2% 17.5% 9.0%
#1 Seed 53.2% 56.2% 37.4%
Top 2 Seed 83.3% 85.8% 69.9%
Top 4 Seed 98.3% 98.9% 95.2%
Top 6 Seed 99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 1.7 1.6 2.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 99.4%
Conference Champion 53.0% 56.7% 33.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round95.5% 95.9% 93.3%
Sweet Sixteen67.3% 68.1% 62.9%
Elite Eight42.7% 43.7% 37.4%
Final Four24.4% 25.1% 20.7%
Championship Game13.3% 13.8% 10.5%
National Champion7.0% 7.3% 5.5%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Home) - 84.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 211 - 4
Quad 26 - 118 - 6
Quad 34 - 022 - 6
Quad 45 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 306   Central Arkansas W 105-61 99%     1 - 0 +32.4 +12.1 +15.2
  Nov 08, 2019 47   Washington L 64-67 76%     1 - 1 +7.3 -5.9 +13.5
  Nov 15, 2019 135   Texas St. W 72-63 95%     2 - 1 +8.3 -1.5 +9.7
  Nov 21, 2019 200   Ohio W 76-53 96%     3 - 1 +20.4 +5.7 +16.1
  Nov 22, 2019 165   @ Coastal Carolina W 77-65 91%     4 - 1 +14.9 +10.2 +5.6
  Nov 24, 2019 23   Villanova W 87-78 67%     5 - 1 +22.2 +29.9 -6.6
  Dec 03, 2019 351   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-46 99.8%    6 - 1 +9.5 -2.2 +9.8
  Dec 07, 2019 10   Arizona W 63-58 69%     7 - 1 +17.3 -7.8 +24.9
  Dec 10, 2019 17   Butler W 53-52 73%     8 - 1 +12.2 -6.2 +18.6
  Dec 18, 2019 303   Tennessee Martin W 91-63 98%     9 - 1 +19.5 +4.9 +13.9
  Dec 30, 2019 333   Jackson St. W 83-57 99%     10 - 1 +12.3 +3.3 +8.4
  Jan 04, 2020 54   Texas W 59-44 85%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +21.5 +0.0 +23.8
  Jan 07, 2020 18   @ Texas Tech W 57-52 53%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +21.8 +2.9 +19.5
  Jan 11, 2020 1   @ Kansas W 67-55 28%     13 - 1 3 - 0 +35.8 +16.2 +21.2
  Jan 15, 2020 56   Iowa St. W 68-55 86%     14 - 1 4 - 0 +19.0 +0.2 +19.6
  Jan 18, 2020 65   @ Oklahoma St. W 75-68 75%     15 - 1 5 - 0 +17.6 +14.6 +3.4
  Jan 20, 2020 49   Oklahoma W 74-64 84%    
  Jan 25, 2020 20   @ Florida W 65-64 53%    
  Jan 29, 2020 56   @ Iowa St. W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 01, 2020 67   TCU W 70-57 88%    
  Feb 03, 2020 82   @ Kansas St. W 67-59 77%    
  Feb 08, 2020 65   Oklahoma St. W 71-58 89%    
  Feb 10, 2020 54   @ Texas W 66-60 69%    
  Feb 15, 2020 11   West Virginia W 69-64 70%    
  Feb 18, 2020 49   @ Oklahoma W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 22, 2020 1   Kansas L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 25, 2020 82   Kansas St. W 70-56 90%    
  Feb 29, 2020 67   @ TCU W 67-60 74%    
  Mar 02, 2020 18   Texas Tech W 66-60 73%    
  Mar 07, 2020 11   @ West Virginia L 66-67 48%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 7.0 14.9 16.4 9.9 2.7 53.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.1 10.1 12.3 6.8 1.2 35.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.0 8.3 14.0 19.7 21.7 17.6 9.9 2.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
17-1 100.0% 9.9    9.6 0.4
16-2 93.1% 16.4    12.8 3.6
15-3 68.8% 14.9    8.6 6.2 0.2
14-4 35.7% 7.0    2.5 3.8 0.7 0.0
13-5 13.1% 1.8    0.4 1.0 0.4 0.1
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 53.0% 53.0 36.6 15.0 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.7% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 1.1 2.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 9.9% 100.0% 35.8% 64.2% 1.1 8.6 1.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 17.6% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 1.2 13.8 3.7 0.1 100.0%
15-3 21.7% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 1.4 14.1 7.0 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-4 19.7% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 1.6 9.4 8.2 1.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.0% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 2.0 3.9 6.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-6 8.3% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 2.7 0.8 2.7 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 4.0% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 3.3 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 1.5% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.5% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.1% 100.0% 5.1% 94.9% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 1.7 53.2 30.1 11.4 3.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.0 95.7 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 91.6 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 91.7 8.3