Gardner-Webb
Big South
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#226
Expected Predictive Rating-7.2#276
Pace66.6#257
Improvement-0.9#227

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#207
First Shot-0.8#204
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#208
Layup/Dunks-2.5#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#161
Freethrows+0.5#134
Improvement-0.5#208

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#253
First Shot-0.7#191
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#318
Layups/Dunks+1.3#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#243
Freethrows-0.6#215
Improvement-0.5#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 9.9% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 23.9% 27.6% 8.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.3% 85.1% 59.8%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.4% 2.5%
First Four5.8% 5.9% 5.5%
First Round6.8% 7.3% 4.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Home) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 52 - 11
Quad 411 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 89   Furman L 63-70 25%     0 - 1 -3.8 -5.9 +1.8
  Nov 09, 2019 166   @ Western Carolina L 59-71 26%     0 - 2 -9.2 -19.0 +10.2
  Nov 15, 2019 69   @ North Carolina L 61-77 10%     0 - 3 -5.6 -9.3 +4.4
  Nov 19, 2019 42   @ Wichita St. L 52-74 6%     0 - 4 -8.4 -5.3 -5.5
  Nov 22, 2019 91   @ South Carolina L 69-74 12%     0 - 5 +3.7 +4.9 -1.4
  Nov 26, 2019 303   Tennessee Martin W 81-64 68%     1 - 5 +8.5 +5.1 +5.1
  Nov 27, 2019 137   Northern Colorado W 67-62 30%     2 - 5 +6.8 +2.7 +4.7
  Dec 07, 2019 127   @ Wofford L 77-81 20%     2 - 6 +1.3 +5.2 -3.8
  Dec 13, 2019 345   @ Kennesaw St. L 61-85 79%     2 - 7 -36.2 -10.9 -27.0
  Dec 15, 2019 60   @ Virginia Tech L 46-73 9%     2 - 8 -15.7 -19.0 +2.0
  Jan 02, 2020 260   @ Campbell W 67-65 46%     3 - 8 1 - 0 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1
  Jan 04, 2020 327   Presbyterian L 62-68 81%     3 - 9 1 - 1 -19.2 -19.4 +0.3
  Jan 08, 2020 138   Radford L 64-67 40%     3 - 10 1 - 2 -4.1 -3.9 -0.5
  Jan 11, 2020 143   @ Winthrop L 95-99 3OT 22%     3 - 11 1 - 3 +0.3 -5.1 +6.6
  Jan 18, 2020 317   South Carolina Upstate W 83-67 79%     4 - 11 2 - 3 +3.7 +4.6 -0.8
  Jan 20, 2020 325   Hampton W 81-72 81%    
  Jan 23, 2020 343   @ High Point W 71-63 76%    
  Jan 25, 2020 286   Charleston Southern W 72-66 73%    
  Jan 30, 2020 279   @ UNC Asheville W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 01, 2020 323   Longwood W 73-64 80%    
  Feb 06, 2020 327   @ Presbyterian W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 08, 2020 317   @ South Carolina Upstate W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 10, 2020 343   High Point W 74-61 89%    
  Feb 13, 2020 143   Winthrop L 74-76 41%    
  Feb 20, 2020 325   @ Hampton W 79-75 62%    
  Feb 22, 2020 260   Campbell W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 27, 2020 286   @ Charleston Southern W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 29, 2020 138   @ Radford L 63-71 21%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.0 1.5 0.2 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 8.6 14.9 11.6 4.8 0.7 0.0 41.9 3rd
4th 0.5 6.2 9.0 3.6 0.4 0.0 19.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 6.3 2.0 0.1 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.6 2.0 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 2.2 0.2 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.7 10.5 16.0 19.7 19.2 14.3 7.9 2.7 0.4 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 53.1% 0.2    0.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 17.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 29.7% 29.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 2.7% 19.5% 19.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.1
13-5 7.9% 17.2% 17.2% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 6.6
12-6 14.3% 13.9% 13.9% 15.9 0.2 1.7 12.3
11-7 19.2% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.1 2.1 17.1
10-8 19.7% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7 18.1
9-9 16.0% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.9 15.1
8-10 10.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.4 10.1
7-11 5.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.6
6-12 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 0.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 8.0 90.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 14.1 14.5 60.3 22.9 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%