Pre-tourney Rankings
Mountain West
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
27 San Diego St. 100.0%   7   22 - 4 14 - 3 22 - 4 14 - 3 +13.8      +5.5 49 +8.4 12 64.2 298 +14.4 19 +12.2 2
41 Utah St. 47.3%   19 - 8 15 - 4 19 - 8 15 - 4 +11.2      +2.5 111 +8.7 9 70.8 134 +8.9 66 +10.7 3
62 Boise St. 38.7%   17 - 8 14 - 6 17 - 8 14 - 6 +9.1      +4.6 68 +4.5 64 70.9 127 +9.4 60 +8.7 4
66 Colorado St. 38.0%   17 - 6 14 - 4 17 - 6 14 - 4 +8.5      +4.3 78 +4.3 67 70.7 137 +10.4 51 +12.3 1
87 Nevada 0.1%   15 - 10 10 - 7 15 - 10 10 - 7 +6.6      +5.4 52 +1.3 133 73.6 81 +6.2 94 +4.9 5
149 Wyoming 0.0%   14 - 11 7 - 9 14 - 11 7 - 9 +0.9      +4.6 72 -3.7 276 71.4 118 +1.9 142 +1.1 7
166 UNLV 0.0%   10 - 15 8 - 10 11 - 15 9 - 10 +0.2      +1.3 132 -1.2 204 64.9 279 -0.8 176 -0.2 8
182 Fresno St. 0.0%   10 - 12 9 - 11 10 - 12 9 - 11 -0.8      -0.8 197 0.0 169 63.2 308 +1.2 149 +1.3 6
275 New Mexico 0.0%   4 - 16 2 - 15 4 - 17 2 - 16 -7.6      -6.8 309 -0.8 197 67.2 221 -8.3 287 -12.1 11
310 Air Force 0.0%   5 - 20 3 - 17 5 - 20 3 - 17 -10.0      -4.5 274 -5.6 307 59.2 342 -9.5 303 -11.1 10
320 San Jose St. 0.0%   3 - 16 3 - 13 3 - 16 3 - 13 -11.8      -4.6 278 -7.2 330 78.5 22 -10.1 310 -8.4 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 2.0 100.0
Utah St. 1.0 100.0
Boise St. 2.0 100.0
Colorado St. 2.0 100.0
Nevada 5.0 100.0
Wyoming 8.0 100.0
UNLV 6.2 84.7 15.3
Fresno St. 6.0 100.0
New Mexico 10.7 15.3 84.7
Air Force 9.0 100.0
San Jose St. 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
San Diego St. 14 - 6 100.0
Utah St. 15 - 5 100.0
Boise St. 14 - 6 100.0
Colorado St. 14 - 6 100.0
Nevada 10 - 10 100.0
Wyoming 7 - 13 100.0
UNLV 9 - 11 15.3 84.7
Fresno St. 9 - 11 100.0
New Mexico 2 - 18 84.7 15.3
Air Force 3 - 17 100.0
San Jose St. 3 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St.
Utah St. 100.0% 100.0
Boise St.
Colorado St.
Nevada
Wyoming
UNLV
Fresno St.
New Mexico
Air Force
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 7   0.0 0.8 3.8 12.8 25.7 24.6 18.2 12.2 1.8 0.0
Utah St. 47.3% 0.0% 47.3% 0.0 0.8 12.1 27.7 6.6 0.0 52.7 47.3%
Boise St. 38.7% 0.0% 38.7% 0.1 4.3 22.7 11.5 0.1 61.3 38.7%
Colorado St. 38.0% 0.0% 38.0% 0.0 0.3 5.5 21.2 10.8 0.1 62.0 38.0%
Nevada 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 61.7% 24.4% 10.0% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2%
Utah St. 47.3% 17.8% 39.3% 15.2% 5.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Boise St. 38.7% 23.8% 26.0% 8.3% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 38.0% 21.8% 25.5% 7.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 17.6 46.0 31.1 5.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 30.7 49.5 18.2 1.6
2nd Round 73.4% 0.9 26.6 55.6 16.4 1.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 31.9% 0.3 68.1 29.4 2.4 0.1
Elite Eight 12.7% 0.1 87.3 12.4 0.3
Final Four 4.1% 0.0 95.9 4.1 0.0
Final Game 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2